Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Credit Card Crisis as Huge Losses Cause Lending to Stop / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
The credit card industry is in huge stress and things are about to get worse. Please consider Advanta Halts Credit-Card Lending Amid Surging Losses.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Here's How to Make Far More Money in Bonds than Stocks in 2009 / Interest-Rates / Investing 2009
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: In the past two weeks, I've spent a considerable amount of time researching the corporate bond market.I think it's one of the greatest opportunities to make a substantial amount of capital gains – and earn high income – you'll ever see.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Short-term Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market gave up a major support level 2 weeks ago as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%. Last week the bond market followed through with yields rising and prices falling further. The stocks for bonds switch also continued unabated. The yield curve also broke out of its trading range around 200 basis points to steepen toward the 230 level. Long term rates rose from 2.5% just before year end to 4.27% as of last weekend. That is a 71% rise in a little over 4 months. That is about double the measly 35% rise in the stock market. The record debt to GDP level maybe changing in its composition but it is not going away. Any “green-shoot” that might be fixing to sprout will be nipped in the bud by rising yields.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Quantitative Easing Aka Counterfeiting Money / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: LewRockwell
Michael S. Rozeff writes: I begin by describing quantitative easing in technical terms. I go on to describe what it means when a central bank and its government engage in quantitative easing. What is quantitative easing? It is a central bank’s "purchase" of government securities (bills, notes, bonds) directly from the government.
Friday, May 08, 2009
The Clock is Ticking on the U.S. Dollar and Bond Markets! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ty_Andros
This is the beginning of the third edition of the “Fingers of Instability” series. The first edition was in the winter/spring of 2007, the second in the winter/spring of 2008, and now the third in the spring of 2009. The Fingers of Instability are ANALOGOUS to nature as seen in a sand pile. In August 2006, John Mauldin (John@frontlinethoughts.com) commented on a study of sand piles by three physicists who created a sand pile with a computer program that dropped one grain of sand on top of another to study critical states: NON-EQUILIBRIUM systems and uncertainty. When I read this, I immediately realized the debt bubbles throughout the world were an analogy to these studies and explained a great deal about the last three decades of debt creation. It reinforced my observations about Ponzi finance and asset-backed economies. It explained quite nicely what was transpiring and what to expect at some point in relation to PILES of DEBT and the FAKE prosperity and growth caused by EASY MONEY and runaway credit expansion.
Friday, May 08, 2009
Bursting Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble: Not So Fast! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has spiked 10% in the past two weeks, and many are now jumping on the "bonds are the next bubble to burst" bandwagon. I was one of the first to be bearish on Treasury bonds calling for the likelihood of a secular trend change back in December, 2008 and a top in back in February, 2009. Higher Treasury yields are in our future, and it isn't a matter of if but when.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Will Interest Rates Sky Rocket as Inflationary Pressures Build? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: U.S. Treasury bond yields are going higher - much higher. And that’s even before we factor in the likely effects of rising inflation, which we haven’t seen yet, but can certainly anticipate.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Inflation or Deflation: Who is the Winner? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Q1_Publishing
In this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. Indeed, given the sizable margin of slack in resource utilization and diminished cost pressures from oil and other commodities, inflation is likely to move down some...
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Bernanke Warns of Danger of Credit Crisis Relapse / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Warns of a Credit Market 'Relapse', Congress is increasingly willing to stand up to the Fed Chairman.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market gave up a major support level last week as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%. The stocks for bonds switch continued unabated, where it stops, nobody knows. As the short end remains anchored, any back-up in long term rates causes the yield curve to steepen. This is a good news – bad news story in the present environment. It is excellent news for financials that can still afford to borrow short and lend long as they can earn a significant carry on that trade.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Some Corporate Bonds Looking Better than U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Nilus Mattive writes: I think Mike Larson did a great job outlining the dangers of longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds in his past two Money & Markets columns. And like Mike, I continue to believe there is more pain ahead for that category of bonds.
Monday, May 04, 2009
Sorry Ben Bernanke, You Don’t Control Long Term Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
It is disappointing to discover that the Harvard- and M.I.T.-educated Ben Bernanke did not learn while attending school that long-term interest rates must be set by the free market. Belatedly, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is about to learn this valuable and costly lesson because these rates cannot be manipulated lower by any central bank for a great length of time.
Friday, May 01, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Bubble Bursting! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: You’d think that after the dot-com bubble … the housing bubble … and the bubbles in commercial real estate and private equity, investors would have learned their lesson.
Nope! They did the same stupid things this fall …
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Bond Vigilantes are Fighting the Fed By Pushing Up Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Cant' fight the Fed? Bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed and winning at bidding up bond yields. Short of another shock-&-awe policy announcement this Wednesday, the FOMC decision is likely to generate fresh dollar strength against risk currencies (non-JPY).
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Falsifying Bank Balance Sheets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Professor_Emeritus
Our title is borrowed from a caption of the Chicago economist and monetary scientist Melchior Palyi (1892-1970) writing on the fiscal and monetary legerdemain of the U.S. government in his Bulletin #401, dated February 27, 1960, as follows.
Faking balance sheets legalized
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Monday, April 27, 2009
Obama Says Short US Treasuries, an Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pollaro
Back in March, I penned this essay, Obama Says Short US Treasuries, making the bear case for the US government’s fiscal position and the Treasury long bond: http://mises.org/story/3364
Then I wrote this follow-up, Inflection Point in US Treasury Bond Interest Rates Near: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9294.html
Monday, April 27, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Fall Despite Supportive Fundamentals / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market is testing the line in the sand drawn by the Bernanke Fed at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury note yield. While stocks held their own with the Nasdaq closing positive for the 7th week in a row, bonds continued to trade in a leaky fashion. There was all sorts of chatter about the government stress tests being flunked by most financial institutions, but until we see an official announcement, rumours of across the board insolvencies remain just that: rumours!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
LIBOR Interest Rate Nudges Below 1.5% On Quantitative Easing and Price Deflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 3 Month Inter bank Money Market Interest Rate (LIBOR) drifted below 1.5% for the first time in over 50 years despite the budget busting deficit budget delivered on Tuesday. The prime drivers of lower LIBOR rates are the Bank of England providing near unlimited liquidity to the Banking System coupled with the 0.5% base rate coupled with Quantitative Easing (monetization of debt) with the prime aim of driving down interest rates across the curve i.e. from the short end to the long-end. This is further reinforced by the deflationary driven sentiment following RPI of -0.4% for March.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
UK Savings Interest Rates in Free Fall, Pensioners Pay the Price / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Savings rates are still in freefall with the average no notice rate currently at 0.64%, just above bank base rate.The recent published inflation figures shows that the real return after basic tax and inflation on an average no notice savings account is 1.06 per cent for RPI, but is at a worrying minus 2.24 per cent for CPI.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Now 2 Standard Deviations Cheaper than Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market continues to chop around aimlessly. The market was stronger most of the week, but a 2 point sell-off on Friday destroyed all the gains and then some. The fundamental news turned considerably weaker – even in relation to expectations - but the stock market managed to show further gains for the 6th week in a row now. That generated further outflow from bonds to stocks. Based on the Fed model which compares the 10 year Treasury note to the dividend yield in the stock market, stocks made a close to 4 standard deviation move relative to bonds in a little over one month.
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