Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
United States Day of Reckoning Treasury Bond Market Collapse Underway / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: If you read just one of my Money and Markets issues this year, make sure it's this one.
You will not hear what I'm about to say from our nation's leaders. Nor will it pour forth from talking heads on Wall Street.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Today's Interest Rates are Unreal! / Interest-Rates / Gold & Silver 2009
By: Michael_Pento
I'm often asked the question if rising interest rates will cause downward pressure on gold prices. The answer is yes, but only if those rates are rising in real terms and not in nominal terms only. But an even more important question that needs to be asked is whether or not the Fed will be able to allow rates to rise to a level that provides the market with a positive real return. The answer, unfortunately, is no. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble About to Pop / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Frighteningly, like the rush into tech stocks, then the rush into real estate, and then the rush into commodities, the rush into U.S. government bonds has created a Treasury bubble. In a cruel twist of economic fate, passage of an aggressive Obama administration stimulus plan could further inflate that bubble - before popping it. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Foreigners Puking Up U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Oxbury_Research
New York Times: “ All the key drivers of China's Treasury purchases are disappearing — there's a waning appetite for dollars and a waning appetite for Treasuries, and that complicates the outlook for interest rates,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist in the Hong Kong office of the Royal Bank of Scotland.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Bullish Pattern for Corporate Bond LQD ETF / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My technical work in the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is very constructive, and points still higher on an intermediate term basis. My near term work has pivoted to the upside after a pullback from the 102.60 high on 1/09 into yest.'s low at 97.32. Why? Mr. Market perceives that there is "value" and relative safety in the corporate bond sector compared with the excess-supply, debt-beleaguered sovereign (US) Treasury sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Bond Market Payment Rates Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Bond rates are easy to access, but understanding what you are being paid for the components of bond rates takes a little bit of simple math to break it down. Important insights can be gained from knowing the building blocks of a rate.
Rates for key bond types are published by multiple public internet sources. You may need to go to more than one to get all the detail you want.
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Monday, January 26, 2009
Treasury Bonds 5 Years of Interest Destroyed in 6 Weeks! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Last month, investors from all over the world — spooked by the debt crisis — flocked to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
They bought U.S. bonds with money earned from China's export boom. They scooped up bonds with money gleaned from the savings of millions of Japanese families … with government money … oil money … even drug money.
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Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Expected to Bounce After Sharp Sell-off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market appears to be settling down into a trading range after the sharp rally during the last 2 months of 2008. The Long Bond traded to its lowest level in nearly 2 months. My favoured scenario is that the market recovers a bit during the next 2 weeks and then it trades lower. Before that happens, traders need to deal with record size 2 and 5 Year Treasury Note auctions early in the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The explosive long T-bond rally of November and December 2008 following deep U.S. interest rate cuts towards ZERO appears to have come to an end as treasury bonds broke below the most recent low. Therefore this analysis seeks to determine if the bond bubble is about to burst and how bonds could trend during the next 5 months of 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Are Inflation Proof TIPS Breathtakingly Cheap? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inflation backed securities have been on a good run since November. Some still suggest that TIPS Are "Breathtakingly Cheap" . At a time when central banks are attempting to prevent deflation, the hottest investments in the government bond market are securities that protect debt holders against rising consumer prices.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
UltraShort TBT ETF Benefiting from U.S. Treasuries Decline / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The long end of the bond market, and the TLT's (Barclay's 20+ Year T-bond, ETF), are getting hurt today, despite a climbing US dollar. The TBT's (Proshares Ultrashort T-bond, ETF) is benefiting from the price action. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Treasury Bonds Are the Key in 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In 2008, the market that was the trigger for other markets was the currency market. The bottom in the dollar led to a peak in commodities and helped spur massive deleveraging and selling of various holdings. For certain, the increasing strength of the Yen also caused great damage to the global economy and global capital markets. There were only a handful of places to hide, free of volatility and immediate risk. Either you owned government bonds, the dollar or the yen. Gold advanced in 2008, though with extreme volatility compared to other safe-havens. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Credit Crisis Explained: History of Debt Bubbles and Long-term Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: John_Mauldin
There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter from Hoisington Investment Management Company does just that. Let me give you two quotes to pique your interest: "Monetary policy works by creating the environment for a renewed borrowing and lending cycle. This cycle would require that the debt to GDP ratio, which is already at a record level, grow even higher. Would such an outcome really be that desirable when the controlling problem of the U.S. economy is too much improperly financed debt? If the Fed were able to engender an increase in the debt to GDP ratio, this might merely serve to postpone the reckoning of the current debt levels while laying the foundation for an even more vicious unwinding down the road.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 19, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Enters 2009 Trading Range / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market appears to be settling down into a trading range after the sharp rally during the last 2 months of 2008. The Long Bond essentially recovered the losses from the previous week. The financial sector continues to unravel and the effects are translating into massive problems for the global economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
The Trading Opportunity of 2009 Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
In a previous post on long term Treasury bonds, I reviewed some of the technical factors that have me bearish. "So it is highly likely, from this perspective, that Treasury bonds will be an under performing asset class over the next 12 months. But more importantly, will this market top lead to an investing opportunity (i.e., by shorting Treasury bonds)? In other words, will the market top lead to a secular trend change in Treasury bonds?" Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble in Trouble? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Brady_Willett
If you have not yet read about the ominous U.S. Treasury bubble (which has been around for awhile ), here is recent a recap: “Risk-free return” is the standard tag attached to the government's solemn obligations. An investor I know, repulsed by prevailing government yields, has a timelier description – “return-free risk”.James Grant – December 4, 2008
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Credit Crisis Contraction Gaining Positive Traction / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
In order to gauge the progress being made to unclog credit markets and restore confidence in the world's financial system, I monitor a range of financial spreads and other measures. By perusing these, as summarized in this “Credit Crisis Watch” review, one can ascertain to what extent the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Ultra-Short Treasury Bond ETF Heading Sharply Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Below is what I wrote about the ProShares UltraShort 20-year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TBT) exactly 24 hours ago, which appears to have unfolded pretty close to expectations. If the pattern continues to unfold as I expect, the TBT should hold between 39.00 and 38.50 ahead of a potent upleg that continues the advance off of the 12/18 low at 35.51. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Breakpoint for the Global Monetary System / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
CHAOS & ORDER - The global monetary system is at a critical juncture. It is fast approaching a breakpoint. We take a philosophical worldview based on chaos theory that considers the evolution of seemingly stable complex systems reaching a bifurcation point, where the whole system rather unpredictably either “explodes” or “implodes” with a lightning speed. The transition is perceived as “chaotic” – the old order collapses and a new order is established. We think that the global monetary system approaches bifurcation – the breakpoint. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 12, 2009
Bond Market Plunges as Yields Move Sharply Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded off for 2 weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of substantial gains. The pullback was sharp, but insignificant relative to the magnitude of the unprecedented move that the long bond futures made over the past 2 months. As expected, once the yearend buying demand was out of the way, the bong bond cracked in a significant fashion. Last week the market faced the same tug of war that is likely to dominate the market going forward: supportive fundamental news countered by increasing supply concerns. During the first full trading week of the year, the bears won the battle in spite of relatively successful Treasury Note auctions. Read full article... Read full article...