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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

U.S. Treasury Bonds Soar Following Zero Interest Rates Policy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe extraordinary near-vertical advance in the Lehman 20 Year T-bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues, as yield on both the 10 and 30 year Treasuries plummets. Let's notice that for the first time in what I consider to be the "blow-off" stage (since 12./12), the TLTs have gapped up, which technically suggests strongly that the price structure has entered the final phase of the incredible "parabolic" move.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Fed Policy to Drive U.S. Dollar Lower to Prevent Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFaced with the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be trying to drive the dollar lower to spur inflation. As policy makers don't want home prices to deteriorate further, an alternative is to inflate the prices of all other goods and services: as a result, the relative prices of homes would be less expensive. Weakening the dollar is an effective policy tool to drive up inflation as the cost of import goes up. Just be careful: the Fed may be getting more than it is bargaining for.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Fed Fights Deflation with Zero Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Federal Reserve yesterday pulled out all the stops in a frantic effort to save the US economy from collapse and stem the deflationary forces. The Fed funds rate was slashed from 1% to a target range between 0 and 0.25% – the lowest the central bank's key rate has been since records began in 1954.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Quantitative Interest Rate Easing American Style: Free Money / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Treasury rally continued in spectacular fashion in conjunction with the ZIRP Arrival: Fed Targets Interest Rates 0 to 1/4 Percent .

From the FOMC Press Release . The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Madoff Fraud and the U.S. Government Debt Ponzi Scheme / Interest-Rates / Scams

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme orchestrated by Wall Street insider Bernard Madoff unravels in the media spotlight, the nation is being presented with a rare opportunity to understand the true nature of many of our most cherished financial structures. Hopefully we have the wisdom to connect the dots.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Zero Interest Rates Policy Arrives as Fed Targets 0% to 0.25% / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEffective today, the Fed is done cutting rates. ZIRP has arrived. The Fed is targeting interest rates in a range of 0 to 1/4 percent as noted today's FOMC Press Release .

Release Date: December 16, 2008 - For immediate release

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

U.S. Treasury Bonds Blow-off Top? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for a 6 th consecutive weeks as the Long Bond future rallied an unprecedented 23 points since the end of October. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be just another blow-off top. It is really no big deal, blow-offs have been a dime a dozen this year, so there is no reason to get too excited.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Federal Reserve Characteristics of a Crime Syndicate Faces Lawsuits / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe principal missing piece in the grand American mosaic of banking destruction, corrupt collusion, fraudulent bonds, Wall Street control, suppressed regulators, compromised ratings agencies is JUSTICE . Foreign entities are aghast as the lack of prosecution, remedy, and removal from positions of power, as policy continues to be set by the participants responsible for the structural failure and prevalent fraud. Their actions are reaching climax levels. The climax of the Wall Street strangehold is the confiscation of the TARP funds to date. However, whatever has not been nationalized is subject to lawsuits . The pattern of human behavior indicates that lawsuits can spawn additional lawsuits, and quickly control is lost. It is open season on Citigroup, Bank of America, and perhaps other lesser players.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 15, 2008

Any Confidence in Corporate America could send Corporate Bond Prices Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Cars – from the musical group to songs about various models (Little Deuce Coupe, Pink Cadillac) to songs about the road (Route 66, King of the Road) it is little wonder the market was captivated by the death dance in Washington regarding the auto companies. When it looked as though they would crash and burn, the markets indicated a 4-5% decline coming into Friday, only a willingness by the White House and the Treasury to use money earmarked for the financial sector, did the markets turn slightly higher on the week.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Free Money with that Credit Default Swap? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThings That Should Not Be
  • I'll Pay You to Hold My Cash
  • Pushing on a String
  • Free Money with that Credit Default Swap?
  • Oil Does a Strange Contango Dance
  • The Tragedy of Bernie Madoff

There are things in today's markets that are simply astounding. They should not exist, yet they do. Why should US bills trade at negative interest? How can oil be trading at all-time highs in terms of spreads over the next year? Bank debt and bonds are trading at discounts not to be believed. Want some free money? I show you a trade that gives you (almost) just that. Fed funds at zero? Are we starting to push on a string? We'll cover all this and more in this week's letter.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 12, 2008

Government Flood of Treasury Obligations Telegraphing Inflation / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Nightmare Before Christmas - Like many pragmatic economists I have always warned that rapid expansions of government debt would result in inflation and higher interest rates. The explanation was always simple: rising supply of government debt inflates the money supply and weakens the government’s ability to service its debt through legitimate means.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 12, 2008

Trillion Dollar Bailout Liabilities Desensitisation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the current climate, where the overriding opinion of most mainstream financial commentators is that deficit spending is a good thing and the only thing better than one bailout is two bailouts, it is time to inject a bit of logic and sanity.

Sure, I made the argument in last week's edition that IF the Feds are going to throw over $8 Trillion at the financial system which produces nothing, why not throw Big Auto a bone? At least they produce something. However, this line of reasoning should not be taken as any kind of endorsement of our Bail-o-Matic Congress or its actions.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 12, 2008

U.S. Bond Markets on the Edge of Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: I thought I had witnessed a lot of craziness in the bond market over the past year:

• The utter obliteration of subprime mortgage bonds …

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 12, 2008

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble Hits Manic Stage / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

This week marked the beginning of what I believe is the manic bubble stage in the nearly three decade long Treasury bull market. On Monday, the U.S. Department of Treasury sold $27 billion of three month bills at a discount rate of .005%. That rate is the lowest since the auction began in 1929. On Tuesday, $30 billion of four-week Treasury bills were sold at 0%! Again, the lowest yield ever recorded for that security.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Fed Seeks to Issue Own Debt to Soak up Excess Liquidly / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Credit Rating on a Benevolent Counterfeiters Debt - Infinity A? - In today's Wall Street Journal a trial balloon was floated with regard to the Fed issuing its own debt. This is akin to a counterfeiter issuing her own debt. There could never be a default. All the counterfeiter would have to do is print up some new currency to pay the interest on or redeem her debt. The Fed also possesses the power of the printing press, so it would never default on its debt. Of course, there is no guarantee what the future purchasing power of the payments would be to the Fed's creditors, but that is a different issue.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Goldman Recommends Credit Default Swaps as States Face Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

On November 25 I wrote State of New Jersey Is Insolvent

The state of New Jersey is insolvent. Bankrupt might be a better word. New Jersey is $60 billion in the hole on pension funding and the Governor is planning on skipping payments in a "pension payment holiday" until 2012 so as to not increase property taxes. To top it off, the ongoing plan assumptions are 8.25%. Sorry NJ, that simply is not going to happen. ....

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The State of State Municipal Bond Funds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSeveral of our clients have come to us this past week with questions and concerns about municipal bond funds.

They are concerned about recent performance, about California projected cash shortages, about many states struggling with budget deficits, about the fate of revenue bonds in the face of current economic problems; and whether the US government would bailout states the way they are bailing out banks, insurance companies, industrial “banks”, federal mortgage agencies, and automobile companies.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Credit Crisis Watch- Banking Sector Distrust Remains High / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn order to gauge the progress being made to unclog credit markets and restore confidence in the world's financial system, I monitor a range of financial spreads and other measures. By perusing these, as summarised in this “Credit Crisis Watch” review, one can ascertain to what extent the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect.

First up is the LIBOR rate. This is the interest rate that banks charge each other for one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year loans. LIBOR is an acronym for “London InterBank Offered Rate” and is the rate charged by London banks, and which is then published and used as the benchmark for banks' rates around the world.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 08, 2008

The Great U.S. Treasury Bond Market Trap / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Captain_Hook

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the more unusual manifestations of the financial meltdown this year has been the dollar spike, that caught a lot of traders by surprise, and was generated in part by a stampede into the percieved safety of short-expiry US Treasuries, which necessitated the purchase of US dollars. This is now arriving at its ultimate conclusion where Treasury yields have been beaten down to zero, which means that in real terms they are negative, resulting in the bizarre situation where investors are now paying the US government for the privilege of lending them money. This is clearly an untenable circumstance that cannot be expected to continue indefinitely, and it has only been occasioned by desperation, as panicked investors have sought safe haven.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 08, 2008

U.S. Treasury Bonds Reach Extreme Overbought State / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market not only held the breakout levels from a couple of weeks ago, but continued to power ahead to the lowest yields seen on long term Treasury Bonds in half a century. The US administration, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve along with authorities world wide have been desperately trying all sorts of new programs to foster the flow of credit. Thus far these programs have not seemed to work. It feels like the authorities are just throwing money, programs, bailouts at a wall and hope that something will stick.

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