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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

ECB's QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Just one week after the surprising Swiss decoupling from the euro peg, the ECB unleashed its quantitative easing program. On January 22, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, announced a €1.1 trillion monetary injection plan, which would start in March 2015 and last until the end of September 2016, or "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation". What does this €60bn monthly bond-buying program imply for the economy and gold market?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The Fed Will Likely Remove 'Patient' from its Statement, But Not from its Actions / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Although oil prices rallied more than 20% following the January Fed decision, their swift decline to fresh six-year lows raises questions about whether the Fed will underestimate threat of deflation as it did with GDP growth over the last three years. A June rate hike would be a policy mistake, especially as the US dollar index is heading for its biggest quarterly gain since Q4 1992. Adding Q3 & Q4, the USD index is up 23%. And yields remain muted as bond traders do not buy into a summer rate hike.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Government Bonds - The Most Crowded Trades on Wall Street / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: EconMatters

The most crowded trade on Wall Street, the globe, or a beach in Brazil is the Bond Yield Chasing/Price Appreciation trade. This sector or asset class is an absolute bubble, the magnitude of which has never been seen in a mainstream asset class, and one that is deemed conservative and safe by investors which makes the tail risk for these assets off the charts. We literally are looking at an 8 sigma event down the road in this asset class.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 16, 2015

Beware of The Inverted Yield Curve! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

In the movies, an edgy musical score is an effective tool that warns the audience something really bad is about to happen. Like the shrill screech in Psycho, certain sound effects forebode impending doom. In like manner, economics also has a similar warning sign of imminent market chaos. This omen is called the inverted yield curve. And it's no coincidence that the last seven recessions have been preceded by this ominous predictor of economic and stock market disaster.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 16, 2015

The ECB Should End QE Next Month / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: EconMatters

Mario Draghi backed into Unenviable Corner

This was an instance where the markets pushed Mario Draghi in a direction that really wasn`t necessary, an area he knew deep down was fruitless, and in the end will be proven to be a complete waste of time, forestalling the inevitable structural changes required for Europe to grow in a competitive fashion over the next decade.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

Rising Interest Rates are a “wild card.” Here’s how to play it… / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: This week's trading featured a three-day losing streak for U.S. markets on fears that the Fed may hike interest rates earlier than expected, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq shedding around 1.24%, 1.50%, and 1.57% respectively.

Bring it on!

I've pointed out repeatedly since the financial crisis began that the "good is bad" meme followed by traders – which triggers market dips with every piece of significant good news, thanks to paranoia that the Fed will seize on that news to raise rates – only creates buying opportunities for investors with the right tactics.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

Watch As All the Bond Market Rats Jump Ship before FOMC Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Short-Term Market Flipping

Markets are just hilarious these days, there is no meaningful investments in the era of High Frequency Trading, Spoofing Algos, Pump & Dump IPO Schemes and ZIRP free money to borrow at the drop of a hat.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Crazy Man's Guide to the U.S.Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

I invite you to inspect the following chart of 10-year interest rates in the US.

If you don’t have a lot of experience with these things, let me clue you in: This is a very scary-looking chart. It’s a classic head-and-shoulders bottom in yields.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Sub-Zero Interest Rates as an Endless Daylight Saving Time / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: We all know about Milton Friedman’s money helicopter idiom and how President Obama’s architect in chief of Quantitative Easing used it to justify his “Great Monetary Experiment.” Less well known is Friedman’s idiom about daylight saving time, how he used this to illustrate the case for flexible exchange rates, and how it is now apparently justifying the plunge of money market rates in Europe to sub-zero levels.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Six Days Until U.S. Bond Market Crash Begins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Run for the Exits
Early on Tuesday morning, realizing this was going to be a robust selloff in equities, the ‘smart money’, i.e., the big banks, investments banks, hedge funds and the like, ran to the old staple of buying bonds hand over fist with little regard for the yield they are getting paid for stepping in front of the freight train of rate rises coming down the tracks.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

A Patient Fed Considers Losing Patience / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

The below is an abridged version of a longer article that appears in the Winter 2015 Euro Pacific Global Investor Newsletter

I have always argued that quantitative easing and zero percent interest rates were misguided policies to combat economic weakness. But as the years went on, misguided turned into irresponsible, which led to ridiculous, and then turned into dangerous. But lately, the only word that comes to mind is "surreal." How should we react when central bankers begin to speak like Willie Wonka?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 09, 2015

U.S. 30 Year US T-Bonds Price Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

There has been quite a bit of chatter recently about interest rates in the US with many proclaiming interest rates are now headed up. Are these voices right? Having just analysed the technicals of the 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, it is my considered opinion that they are both right and wrong.

Keeping in mind that interest rates go up as bond prices go down, let’s investigate the price charts and we’ll mix it up by starting with the monthly chart first.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 06, 2015

U.S. Corporate Bond Market Building Stress / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: EWI

Editor's note: This article is excerpted from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm. For a limited time, you can download the full report, for free, and use its year-in-preview insights to prepare, survive and prosper through the global investment landscape of 2015 and beyond. Download the full, 53-page report here -- it's free.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. economy and his objectives at Janus Capital.

On what he aims to do at Janus, Gross said: "I wanted to show clients and to show the world, to the extent that they're interested, that I can continue to produce a track record like I did at PIMCO. I won't have five to 10 to 15 years of leeway like I had at PIMCO in terms of proving that.  But certainly for the next two, three or four years.  I'm a very competitive person and I like to post numbers that are better than the market and better than the competition."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 01, 2015

Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

‘If you’re committed enough, you can make any story work. I once told a woman I was Kevin Costner, and it worked because I believed it’ Saul Goodman – Breaking Bad

“As calamitous as the sub-prime blowup seems, it is only the beginning. The credit bubble spawned abuses throughout the system. Sub-prime lending just happened to be the most egregious of the lot, and thus the first to have the cockroaches scurrying out in plain view. The housing market will collapse. New-home construction will collapse. Consumer pocketbooks will be pinched. The consumer spending binge will be over. The U.S. economy will enter a recession.”Eric Sprott – 2007

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 28, 2015

U.S. Debt Breaking Bad / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

“At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, March, 2007

“Capitalism without financial failure is not capitalism at all, but a kind of socialism for the rich.”James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

The Federal Reserve issued their fourth quarter Report on Household Debt and Credit last week to the sounds of silence in the mainstream media. There were minor press releases issued by the “professional” financial journalists regurgitating the Federal Reserve’s storyline. Actual analysis, connecting the dots, describing how the massive issuance of student loan and auto loan debt has produced a fake economic recovery, and how the accelerating default rates in auto loans and student loans will produce the next subprime debt implosion, were nowhere to be seen on CNBC, Bloomberg, the WSJ, or any other status quo propaganda media outlet. Their job is not to analyze or seek truth. Their job is to keep their government patrons and Wall Street advertisers happy, while keeping the masses sedated, misinformed, and pliable.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in the fed funds rate will indeed change a great deal of economics all over the world.

No, it won’t do much to the cap rate on your latest real estate purchase, but it is likely to greatly affect the pricing of the currency and commodity markets. And those markets will affect corporate profits, which will affect the stock market. It’s all connected.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Debt Be Not Proud / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics, writing in January 1914, lambasting politicians for their complicity in the corruption of monetary policy:

We have seen innumerable variations of the vexing game of trying to generate political contentment through material concessions. If formerly the Parliaments were the guardians of thrift, they are today far more like its sworn enemies. Nowadays the political and nationalist parties ... are in the habit of cultivating a greed of all kinds of benefits for their co-nationals or constituencies that they regard as a veritable duty, and should the political situation be correspondingly favorable, that is to say correspondingly unfavorable for the Government, then political pressure will produce what is wanted. Often enough, though, because of the carefully calculated rivalry and jealousy between parties, what has been granted to one has also to be conceded to others — from a single costly concession springs a whole bundle of costly concessions. [emphasis mine]

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Lowest Interest Rates For 3000 Years! / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: John_Rubino

Business Insider's Myles Udland just posted a chart, drawn from research by the Bank of England, showing interest rates for the past 3,000 years. And for all those who've been feeling like today's "new normal" is actually profoundly abnormal, here's your proof. It turns out that interest rates, both long and short-term, are lower than they've ever been. Not lower than in this cycle, or post-war or in the past century, but ever, going back to the earliest days of markets.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 23, 2015

If Debt Was The Problem... / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Rubino

Confounded Interest just posted a nice summary of a McKinsey report on the growth of global debt during what some persist in calling the "great deleveraging." Turns out that since the crisis of 2008, debt has actually risen by $57 trillion, and the ratio of debt to GDP is up 17 percentage points to 286%. Meanwhile, central banks are monetizing 100% of newly-issued sovereign debt.

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