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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Challenging the Consensus for Rising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

One of the most universal consensus calls in the markets today is that interest rates are destined to rise. Thirteen out of 13 major investment banks all think that interest rates for global fixed-income will rise this year. I get nervous when everybody is on the same side of the boat. And so does my good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London. This week’s Outside the Box is another of his thoughtful essays, giving us five reasons why interest rates may in fact go down this year. That is not to say that we don't both agree that rates have to go back up eventually, but to us the timing is not so obvious as it is to the major investment banks. Rather than tip his thunder, I’ll let Niels advocate for his position. (And you can see more of his consistently excellent work at www.arpinvestments.com.)

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

From the Bernanke Put to the Yellen Trap, Debt Rattle 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Sifting through the debris after the initial wave of the year’s first major storm has subsided, there’s no escaping the realization that the damage is structural, this was no incident, and the next wave may well topple the whole structure. Its foundations have been impaired so thoroughly by many years of intentional neglect that the only sensible thing to do is to raze it, lay down new foundations, and erect a whole new edifice.

Ironically, it’s the utter contempt for the free market system as exhibited by the major players in what still poses as a capitalist society, that has done us in. Recklessly flooding the entire premises with ultra cheap liquidity is the one thing the building proved to have no resistance against. Turns out, if you don’t replace weak pieces with new and stronger ones, if you don’t throw out what has started rotting, you end up compromising the entire foundations.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

U.S. Taxes, Entitlements and Federal Debt: The CBO’s Latest Projections / Interest-Rates / Government Spending

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: This morning the Congressional Budget Office published its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024, available as a 175-page PDF file. The main body of the document is divided into four parts: The Budget Outlook, The Economic Outlook, The Spending Outlook and The Revenue Outlook. The Appendix, which constitutes over half the document, covers a range of topics, including four decades of historical data.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 01, 2014

U.S. Treasury Bonds Defying Dire Forecasts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

There was no doubt about it in 2013. If the Fed were ever to cut back on its five years of massive QE bond-buying, bond prices would collapse.

It made sense. Of the $85 billion a month of QE, $40 billion was in mortgage-backed securities, and $45 billion in Treasury bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 01, 2014

Emerging Markets, Interest Rates and QE Tapering / Interest-Rates / Emerging Markets

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Thanks to the Fed's tapering, a wider public is becoming aware of currency instability in diverse economies, from Turkey to Argentina, and India to Indonesia. Indeed, on Tuesday night Turkey raised overnight interest rates by a whopping 4.5% to 12% in an attempt to stop a run on the lira.

Turkey has her own political problems, perhaps strong enough to knock the stuffing out of her currency on their own, and Argentina seems to be permanently fighting off hyperinflation. But it is a mistake to think that the idiosyncrasies of each currency are solely the cause of their downfall. The fact that these countries' currency problems are all happening at the same time tells us the common factor is currency itself.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 31, 2014

FOMC on Future U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Matt_Machaj

In terms of asset purchases monetary policy was, is and will be accommodative. More importantly so is the case with interest rates, which are still flirting with zero percent range - despite the fact that that lowering was believed by some to be temporary. I remember that even in 2009 there were people seriously arguing that we should expect interest rate hikes in few months. The history has proven them to be astonishingly wrong.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 30, 2014

The Limits of Turkey's Interest Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / Turkey

By: STRATFOR

Summary

With a dramatic hike in Turkey's overnight lending rate from 7.75 to 12.5 percent announced on Jan. 28, Turkish Central Bank Gov. Erdem Basci followed through on his earlier promise to use interest rates as a weapon to defend Turkey's currency, the lira. While the hike is a bolder-than-expected move designed to jolt investor interest, Basci is still, in effect, using a sword to fight off a barrage of artillery as a wrenching political crisis continues to erode investor confidence.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Continuing Low Interest Rates Environment for Long term U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Last week Greg Weldon made the case for rising interest rates on US treasuries. This week Lacy Hunt offers us the case for a continued low-interest-rate environment for long-term treasuries. This is one of the most fascinating tugs-of-war in the investment world today. I’ve made the argument that we are in a deflationary deleveraging world for quite some time to come, or at least until the velocity of money turns around. Lacy makes that point, too, and offers some insights into the velocity of money. This is a fascinating Outside the Box, and I won’t spoil it by stealing any more of Lacy’s thunder.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 26, 2014

TNX Chart: Specter of Rising U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jim_Willie_CB

We are at the doorstep of a major USTreasury Bond breakdown. The TNX (10-year bond yield) is at the 3.0% doorstep, as 3.5% looms very likely in the coming months. A horrible threat of a 3.7% target is presented in the chart. A rising trend is seen in many characteristics that cannot be easily dimissed. The following graphic is an extremely powerful chart, thus the center piece of the article. If and when the breakout comes, it will make the Taper Talk backfire seem rather insignificant, as a gathering storm will hit like a financial hurricane on every continent. The Jackass is on record with a forecast of 3.5%, which remains in place. One must be patient to watch it unfold, since it can take months to unfold and to manifest itself. That is far more time than the nitwits who are quick to label it a wrong forecast call. But then again they are are loud unimpressive dullards who litter the audience, taking up valuable space.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Could A Compound Debt Interest Rate Payments Wildfire Threaten US Solvency? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

For the first time since the end of World War II, the total US federal debt now equals 100% of the size the US economy. But while that is obviously a situation of great concern, it may not be the worst of the danger.

Instead, the greatest debt-related threat to the solvency of the United States government and the value of the dollar could be the fact that the US isn't actually making any net principal or interest payments on its debt. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

The Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Fed Comes Out Swinging / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Last Tuesday, January 14, 2014, the Federal Reserve finally had enough.

After supposedly looking into big banks ownership of commodity-related infrastructure operations (like warehouses, oil barges, and utilities) for the last two years, which came on the heels of their 2003 review of the same issues, the rock ‘em sock ‘em Fed came out swinging.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 17, 2014

U.S. Bonds and MBS Buying Program in Reversal? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Matt_Machaj

After the announced “tapering” all the doubts were centered around the question, how big the “tapering” is. All trails lead us to speculation about how the so-called backing out could influence the market in the long run. First let us illustrate all the different versions of Quantitative and Qualitative Easings (episode 1, episode 2, episode 3…) that happened since 2009. Here is a graph that you’re already familiar with, depicting an immense growth in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve since 2009. Contrary to graphs presented previously in the Market Overview, which summed up government securities and mortgage backed securities bought by the Federal Reserve and presented them in total:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Why We Can Not Buy Our Way Out Of Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Last week, there was a discussion in our comments section about the financial “crunch”, the big kahuna, and how it still has not happened despite our insisting it is inevitable, with people saying things like: ‘but the stock markets are way up!’, and ‘in my area home prices are up 30%’. As much as I understand the sentiments, at the same time I don’t really. Certainly for people who read The Automatic Earth, I would have thought it would be clearer what is going on “out there”. I have certainly written more articles than I care to remember about what goes on. Debt is what goes on.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Federal Reserve Overstepped Bounds with Monetary Policy - Seems like a Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EconMatters

Checks & Balances

If you think about it the President has checks and balances, the Supreme Court has checks and balances, and even the two houses of Congress have checks and balances. However as we have seen with the last 5 years of Fed policy that there is no actual checks and balances for what the Federal Reserve can and cannot do with regard to monetary policy, and there should be.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Where the Fed Went Wrong When It Decided to Taper QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: DailyGainsLetter

John Paul Whitefoot writes: The merriment, mirth, and cheer on Wall Street over the holiday season may have been a bit premature; in fact, the optimism about the U.S. economy that ushered in the New Year may have already come to a screeching halt.

In mid-December, the Federal Reserve surprised investors when it announced it was going to start tapering it’s generous $85.0-billion-per-month easy money policy in January to just $75.0 billion per month. The pullback was a surprise, because the Federal Reserve initially hinted it wouldn’t ease its monetary policy until the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.5% and inflation rose to 2.5%. At the time of the announcement, U.S. unemployment stood at seven percent and inflation was hovering around historic lows below one percent.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 05, 2014

Fed Admits It's Clueless How QE Actually Works / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Mike_Shedlock

Inquiring minds are investigating three articles from today, stating opinions of three different Fed governors.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 02, 2014

Behind the Fed’s Magical Curtain: The US Monetary Base and the Impact of Excess Reserves / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Submissions

Kim Collard  writes: The Federal Reserves actions since the Global Financial Crisis have been watched and analysed more than at any other time in history. This makes pretty good sense, as its actions have obviously had a profound impact on these markets.

However, I believe all the many and varied analyses of these actions have fallen into a carefully laid perception trap.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Quantifornication - Did Bernanke Get It Right? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Richard_Mills

The Federal Reserve thinks recent economic news from the U.S. is good:

  • Jobs are being created
  • Consumers are spending money
  • Trade & manufacturing growth is strong

So on Dec. 18th 2013, they announced a decelerating QE III environment.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

QE Tapering Lessons for 2014 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Matt_Machaj

In the last Market Overviews (and also to a considerable extent in the last several Premium Updates) we have discussed in detail differences between tapering and tightening. As we have stated, a personal change of the Fed's chairman will not change the essence of its policy. Now we hear that some form of tapering will indeed happen. Despite this we have three varied tools to consider about some forms of backing out from its expansive policies:

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 29, 2013

The QE Taper and the China Power Struggle Credit Squeeze / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There is a crisis a-brewing in China that evolves around interest rates, with interbank rates as, let’s say, the initial center piece. The underlying cause of the crisis is that both official banks and the shadow banking system seek to escape the restrictions placed on the financial system by the government and the central People’s Bank of China (PBoC), who in essence want to set all interest rates and all policies. At the very moment the regulators recently decided to let markets set some interest rates, a move intended to cool things down, money market rates went up so fast that more action by the PBoC, after an initial refusal, was deemed necessary.

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