Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
U.S. Bond Market Has Reached Tulip Bubble Proportions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Fed Officials Trying to Send Signals to the Bond Market
James Bullard on Friday noted that the Bond Market was far too dovish in relation to where the Fed is in regard to raising rates in June, and this might be the understatement of the year so far. For example the U.S. 2-Year Bond Yield is 0.45 or 45 basis points, think about this for a moment. Even if the Fed fund`s rate finishes the year at 50 basis points which is well below the Fed`s most conservative forecasts, and we use a conservative annual inflation rate of 1% (I know oil has dropped but there are more inflation categories than just the energy component). Moreover, the overall annual inflation rate is well above 1% right now, and you factor in that this bond is paying a 2-year risk premium for tying up one`s capital with all kinds of inflation risks over that 2-year time frame, this has to be the stupidest investment of all time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 30, 2015
Bullard Says Rates at Zero Interest Rates Not Right for U.S. Economy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, spoke with Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio today about monetary policy, the U.S. economy and the oil market.
Bullard said "Zero interest rates is not the right interest rate for this economy. We are much closer to goals than we've been in a long time. Inflation is a little bit low, but it's not low enough to rationalize the zero interest rate policy."
He said: “The market has a more dovish view of what the Fed is going to do than the Fed itself… Markets should take it at face value." He said it’s “reasonable” to expect an increase in June or July.
Friday, January 30, 2015
Why the European Central Bank's Massive Economic Experiment Will Fail / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: Last week, the European Central Bank's turn finally came to announce large-scale quantitative easing.
As the continent witnesses a battle between deflation and attempts at inflation, will it finally be enough?
Europe is following in the footsteps of the United States, hoping for similar "successful" results.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Why 2014's Big Investing Winner Is Still Winning in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Brett Eversole writes: The BIG winner of 2014 will likely surprise you.
U.S. stocks increased a strong 14% last year. But another, much less interesting, asset crushed stocks. It soared 27%. And still, no one is paying attention.
This same boring asset is up 7% so far this year. And last year's big gains could continue throughout 2015.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2015
How Global Interest Rates Deceive Markets / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: John_Mauldin
“You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
– Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride
“In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2015
Why QE in Europe Will Fail / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
The fear of deflation has become the cornerstone of Keynesian economic thought. A lack of inflation has been used to explain periods of economic weakness from the Great Depression of the 1930’s, to the Great Recession 2008-2009. And now, that philosophy has been adopted as gospel by those that control the Federal Reserve and virtually every central bank on the planet.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2015
How Eurozone QE Works: A Guide to Draghi's News / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Money_Morning
Jim Bach writes: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced a quantitative easing program today (Thursday) that was complicated, poorly explained, and drastically unlike U.S. QE.
So, to help make sense of this, we drilled down exactly how Eurozone QE works.
First the basics.
Through Eurozone QE, the ECB will pump 60 billion euros ($68.1 billion) a month into the economy. About 10 billion euros of that will come from existing assets and covered bond purchasing programs. But the other 50 billion euros will come from purchases of member countries' sovereign debt, a new development in the Eurozone monetary policy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 25, 2015
Draghi's "No-growth" QE Money for Stocks, Zilch for the Economy / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Whitney
Let’s say you’re diagnosed with colorectal cancer. But instead of going to a professional for help, you decide to treat yourself with glycerol suppositories and high doses of Vitamin C.Well, then, you’re probably going to die, right?This same rule applies to economics. If you try to reduce unemployment and boost growth by doing something completely unrelated to the problem itself, like dumping trillions of dollars into financial assets, then you’re not going to get the results you want.This is largely the problem we face today. All of the economies controlled by the western bank cartel–Australia, Canada, US, UK, Eurozone, and Japan—are suffering from chronic lack of demand, the likes of which could be easily remedied by following Keynes recommendation of “government directed investment”.
Sunday, January 25, 2015
The European Central Bank Commits Monetary Suicide / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Jeff_Berwick
Yesterday the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an expanded 1.1 trillion euro (US$1.3 trillion) asset purchase program to start in March 2015 and continue through September 2016 (19 months) that will include the purchases of sovereign (national government) debt. It plans to purchase roughly 60 billion euros ($68 billion) worth of securities monthly, up from about 13 billion, with most of the additional purchases to be allocated to sovereign (national government) debt with a quarter expected to end up in scarce German bunds. The purchases will be restricted to investment grade issues, which would mean no purchases at all if the condition were applied diligently, and will include non investment grade issues like Greek bonds if they have an ongoing budget/spending agreement with the ECB-IMF in place.
Friday, January 23, 2015
Euro-zone 'QE already Working' Says IMF Lagarde / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today, ECB president Mario Draghi announced his much awaited QE program that will allegedly save Europe from the imaginary perils of price deflation. See Deflation Bonanza! (And the Fool's Mission to Stop It).
Stocks are up a bit, the dollar is up a bit, the yen is up a bit, and gold is up a bit. Oil is down a bit.
The details are more or less along the lines most thought, not the celestial "big bang" that everyone hoped.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2015
Is 1.2 Trillion Euros The Right Answer To The Wrong Question? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: DK_Matai
Good News Or Bad News?
Once upon a time something good happened for Europe. The price of oil went down dramatically. When the oil price halved in the last months of 2014, there was no way for the European Central Bank (ECB) to fulfill its mandate of keeping price growth close to 2 percent a year. The ECB painted itself into a corner by targeting headline inflation, not core inflation, which excludes food and energy. Left with no choice, the ECB announced on 22nd January 2015 that it would begin printing digital money in large quantities, ie, start Quantitative Easing or QE in the near future. Contrary to popular myth, QE doesn't fight 'deflation', it rather causes it by keeping zombie banks alive. Why? Quantitative easing simply buries money in commercial bank vaults, by bolstering their balance sheets, when it is cash in circulation that is desperately needed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Are Plunging Petrodollar Revenues Behind the Fed’s Projected Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Whitney
Why is the Fed threatening to raise interest rates when the economy is still in the doldrums? Is it because they want to avoid further asset-price inflation, prevent the economy from overheating, or is it something else altogether? Take a look at the chart below and you’ll see why the Fed might want to raise rates prematurely. It all has to do with the sharp decline in petrodollars that are no longer recycling into US financial assets.
Monday, January 19, 2015
Where Would Interest Rates Be If The Fed Didn't Exist? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
On January 7th CNBC's Rick Santelli and Steve Leisman engaged in a heated debate that posed an interesting question; is the free market at work keeping interest rates low, or is it the central banks' put? This made me consider the real question to ask which is: Where would rates be if central banks didn't exist?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2015
ECB Euro-zone QE Money Printing Program Taking Shape / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Dan_Norcini
More and more it appears as if we are going to get some form of QE next week out of the ECB. The big question is the size and scope of the program that most expect to be announced.
There has been some discussion as to whether the ECB would buy various government bonds across the board or whether the actual Central Banks of the respective Euro zone nations would buy their own government bonds as the composition of the actual bond buying program.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Swiss Storm - Central Banks Upside Down / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Swiss have unleashed a pretty wild storm in financial markets. All sorts of companies and people today are licking their wounds, and quite a few will simply have to fold. It’s no exception to be so leveraged in foreign exchange wagers that a move of a few percent can wipe you out, let alone one of 30%. Leverage makes sure that right off the bat a whole bunch of foreign exchange brokers, including FXCM, the biggest, are literally dead in the water – FXCM stock fell 90% -.
Friday, January 16, 2015
Will the ECB Soon Fire Up the Printing Presses? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
There is growing anticipation that the European Central Bank will pull the QE (quantitative easing) trigger at its upcoming meeting on January 22nd. Never mind that such an action explicitly violates article 104 of the Maastricht treaty (article 123 of the Treaty for the Functioning of the European Union):
“Overdraft facilities or any other type of credit facility with the ECB or with the central banks of the Member States (hereinafter referred to as ‘national central banks’) in favour of Community institutions or bodies, central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of Member States shall be prohibited, as shall the purchase directly from them by the ECB or national central banks of debt instruments.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2015
The Next Subprime Debt Crisis Has Already Started / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Reading about what's going on in the subprime auto lending space is a lot like reading about drive-by shootings.
Unless you're a subprime borrower, or live in a neighborhood where drive-bys are happening, you probably don't know much about either or think they affect you.
But if you listen closely there's muffled financial "gunfire" already in your neighborhood.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2015
U.S. Treasury Bonds Elliott Wave Long View / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Unfortunately, this chart doesn’t go back prior to 1990, but there are clues that tell me where we are in the Elliott Wave structure. Wave III, for example, is exactly 12.9 years long. It is followed by a Triangle Wave IV, which is 3.87 years long.
Wave V is nearing an end. It is trading in a very straight trading channel. (It looks managed, don’t you think?) It is highly probable that the end of the T-bond uptrend may get a little help from a decline in equities. If so, a peak between the end of April and mid-May in bonds may correspond very neatly with the next potential bottom in the SPX. In other Words, the “flow” will be out of stocks and into bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2015
The Hidden Perils of Low Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Browne
Late last year, with the U.S. economy experiencing falling unemployment and seemingly low inflation, observers were extremely confident that the Federal Reserve would move judiciously in 2015 to restore 'normal' interest rates sooner rather than later. However, in light of the recent fall in both stocks and oil, that conviction has softened considerably.
Many, such as the very influential Bill Gross, now believe that our current Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), which has been in place for six years, will remain in place throughout the year. While this likelihood is a disappointment to many, who would have preferred to see the economy move along without Fed-supplied training wheels, few really understand the pernicious effects these policies are inflicting on the economy the longer they are held in place. In short, ZIRP is slowly transforming the world economy into a dysfunctional basket case.
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
U.S. Treasury Bond Bull Market Refuses to Die / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Norcini
Call this the market that simply will not die. As mentioned in some previous posts, just about the time one thinks that this market is finally ready to turn lower marking the onset of the end of the ultra-low long term interest rates and the inception of the new trend towards higher rates, back up it goes and down go the rates.
Between US investors seeking safe havens due to slowing growth and falling crude oil prices, and foreign investors looking for higher yielding alternatives to their own government bonds, ( which pay next to nothing not to mention the currency risk that they are exposed to thanks to the soaring US Dollar), bond bears haven't a chance in here.
Read full article... Read full article...