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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Donald Trump is an Economic Ignoramus! / Politics / US Politics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

Not surprisingly, Donald Trump has followed in the infamous footsteps of his presidential predecessors in the transition from candidate to chief executive. Invariably, every candidate for the presidency makes a whole host of promises, the vast majority of which are horrible and typically only exacerbate the problems they attempt to resolve. Among the proposals, however, there is an occasional bright spot. Yet, once elected the stupid polices are eagerly pursued while the good ones are quickly discarded.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Submissions

...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, June 05, 2017

The Last Time We Saw This Trend Was Before The Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : There has been a bit of a buzz about covenant-lite bonds lately. This isn’t really new news. You can see from the chart below that cov-lite issuance has been high for a few years now.

But the old-timers know that when the cov-lite paper comes out, it is usually toward the end of a cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 05, 2017

Asset Diversification Won’t Be Enough In The Next Recession / Stock-Markets / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

Investment diversification may not help in the next global recession. Diversifying among asset classes will simply be diversifying your losses.

The entire world is getting ready to enter a period that I call the “Great Reset.” It is a period of enormous and unpredictable volatility in all asset classes. What do we do?

I think that the answer lies in diversifying among trading strategies that are not correlated to each other. And using managers who have a mandate to invest in any asset class their models tell them to.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 05, 2017

YouGov Latest Crazy Polls Forecast Trending Towards Labour General Election Win! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov continues to pump out i'ts crazy election forecasts on a near daily basis aimed at cornering the shcok polls market that are successfully sending the mainstream media into a feeding frenzy as the seats forecasts are resulting in an ever tightending election race, one of the Tories forecast to LOSE many seats paving the way for many Labour gains.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 05, 2017

Stocks Extend Their Uptrend As Indices Reach New Record Highs Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

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Housing-Market

Monday, June 05, 2017

Six-month Review of the UK Mortgage Landscape / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

The first half of 2017 has seen the mortgage market ramp up its competition yet again, with providers fighting for borrowers’ attention. As a result, research from moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the average five-year fixed rate has fallen by 0.04% since January.

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Currencies

Monday, June 05, 2017

EURJPY Moved Sideways between 122.55 and 125.81 / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Franco_Shao

After breaking above the major resistance of the December 2016 high of 124.09, EURJPY formed as sideways movement in a trading range between 122.55 and 125.81. All we can do now is to wait for the breakout to occur.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 05, 2017

From the Era of Fed Interest Rates Easing to the Era of Tightening / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Steinbock

After half a decade of ultra-low rates in the United States, the Fed is hiking rates and moving ahead to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The consequences will reverberate across the world, including Asia.

Before the Trump era, the Federal Reserve hoped to tighten monetary policy more often and aggressively than markets anticipated. But since November, US economic prospects have fluctuated dramatically, from the Trump trade to new volatility.
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Politics

Monday, June 05, 2017

UK’s Weaker Brexit Hand with the EU / Politics / BrExit

By: Dan_Steinbock

Prime Minister May pushed for a snap election in June 2017 to strengthen her hand in the impending Brexit talks. In practice, she has weakened UK's bargaining power at the EU’s expense, while the latest London Bridge incident introduces new uncertainty and volatility into the EU/UK divorce proceedings.

Like too many times before, British police declared a “major incident” on London Bridge after a van reportedly hit multiple pedestrians.
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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 05, 2017

Can Labour Win Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat in Election 2017? / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

In the 2015 General Election former Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg put up a valiant battle in the face of a national Liberal Democrat wipeout. For in 2015 the opinion pollsters consistently had Labour winning the Sheffield Hallam Lib-Dem seat. Instead Nick Clegg managed to cling on in the wake of a Lib Dem bloodbath, however he did fall by a whopping 13% tumbling from 53.4% to 40% of the voter. Whilst Labour doubled their share from 16.1% to 35.8%, just 4.2% behind Nick Clegg. Whilst the Tories on just 13.6% clearly don't stand any chance of winning Sheffield Hallam in this election at least.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 05, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here is my final UK election forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks in the run up to Theresa May's BrExit snap general election. Usually I would have aimed to have posted my final forecast conclusion at least a month before the day of the election i.e. for the US Presidential election my forecast conclusion was some 7 weeks before voting day. But that was just not possible this time as Theresa May seeing the Tories well ahead in the polls Mid April decided to ride the BrExit wave into a landslide general election victory. But that was about 6 weeks ago, now the likes of YouGov are forecasting a hung parliament resulting in a probable Labour / SNP coalition alliance.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 05, 2017

Soaring Debt = Slow Growth = Even More Debt = Systemic Crisis / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

It’s just common sense: Borrow too much money and the weight of this debt makes it hard to do things that used to be easy. This truism is now (finally!) hitting home, and blame is being apportioned. A couple of recent examples:

Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. Economy Has Grown At EXACTLY The Same Rate As It Did During The 1930s

(Economic Collapse Blog) – Even though I write about our ongoing long-term economic collapse every day, I didn’t realize that things were this bad. In this article, I am going to show you that the average rate of growth for the U.S. economy over the past 10 years is exactly equal to the average rate that the U.S. economy grew during the 1930s.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 05, 2017

Is the Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  Uptrend continues with a loss of upside momentum in weekly indicators.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Correction over.  May be heading for about 2500.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

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Politics

Monday, June 05, 2017

Regime Change in the Trump White House? / Politics / US Politics

By: Dan_Steinbock

No U.S. postwar president has managed to reset relations with Russia. Now the Trump administration must cope with a special counsel’s investigation. In the past, US efforts at regime change targeted foreign countries; today, the White House. How will it impact Trump’s stalled policy agenda?

As I argued in spring 2016 (TWFR, April 25, 2016), US election is a global risk and it would continue to be fought after the Trump election win. But recently, these political struggles moved to an entirely new phase.

First, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismissed James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), reportedly only days after his request for increased resources to investigate Russia’s alleged interference in the election. Barely a week later, DOJ appointed Robert Mueller, former director of the FBI (2001-13) as special counsel overseeing the investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 05, 2017

Last Week’s Stock Market Shallow Drop Portends Bigger Drop Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, I was looking for a pull back into May 31’s 8 TD low.  The move down, however, was extremely shallow (wave ‘b’ 2418 down to 2403) and wave ‘c’ of Y looked to have finished on June 2 (or will finish by June 5 near 2440).  The trines of June 1 (Venus trine Saturn) and June 3 (Sun trine Jupiter) are usually found near tops.

On June 3, we have Venus conjunct Uranus in Aries (Mars rules Aries) and then the Sun squares Neptune in Gemini-Pisces June 4 while the Mars opposition to Saturn (May 29) orb still influences about two weeks out (through the end of next week).  Mars leaves Gemini the same day and enters Cancer.
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ElectionOracle

Sunday, June 04, 2017

UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Seats Result, for 2015 was 328 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In 2015 the polling establishment and the mainstream media had in unison proclaimed that the 2015 general election was too close to call, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a handful of seats ahead would still lose by default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up until the polls closed!

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Commodities

Sunday, June 04, 2017

Gold Mining Stocks in 2017 Whipsaw / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had become bloated and inefficient. That’s what bear markets do; they clean out the landscape to make it inhabitable for new investors one day. Here is a weekly chart showing the bear’s kickoff. HUI’s 55 week EMA then became the ball and chain that kept its fate sealed (red arrows) until January of 2016.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 04, 2017

DOW Joins the Stock Market New All-time Highs Party / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 2416. After a pullback to SPX 2404 by Wednesday morning the market rallied to all-time highs on Thursday/Friday, hitting SPX 2440. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.55%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, the Chicago PMI, pending home sales, construction spending, monthly payrolls, the WLEI, the Q2 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the CPI, Case-Shiller, the ADP, ISM manufacturing, plus the unemployment rate declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by ISM services and factory orders.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, June 04, 2017

London Bridge Terror Attack 5 Seats Election Boost for Conservative Party / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

London has just been hit by another barbaric terror attack that was not even 10 days on from the horrific Manchester bombing that killed many children. The latest attack is just 5 days away from the General Election. Whilst information is very sketchy at this time barely an hour on form the London Met Police declared 2 terror related incidents at London Bridge and Borough Market. Nevertheless armed police have opened fire on at least 3 suspects, of which at least 2 are dead and 1 is being hunted. The police also announced that there are civilian causalities, though the scale of causalities is unknown at this time which hopefully will not be on the scale of Manchester.

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