Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Kirtley

In the years following the GFC, short end yields in the US were contained for an extended period of time as the Fed committed to keeping rates on hold. Given the static nature of the short end, and the shift of monetary policy implications further out the curve through QE programs, long end US rates became the focus. When discussing the drivers of gold prices, long end US real rates (the yield on inflation protected bonds) was the critical factor. However over the past couple of years, the Fed has hiked rates twice, and we now have live meetings with an active short end. This has reduced the impact of long end real rates on gold, and instead shifted the focus to the short end. We now form our view on gold prices overwhelming based on short end rates, as opposed to long end yields. Our bearish view on gold prices is derived from a Fed hike in June.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Trump Chooses Hawkish National Security Advisor / Politics / US Politics

By: Stephen_Lendman

On Monday, Trump named hawkish Army Lt. General HR McMaster to replace Michael Flynn as National Security Advisor (NSA).

Political pressure lead to his unfortunate sacking for harmlessly discussing sanctions with Russia’s US ambassador.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Trump Plans Mass Deportations / Politics / Immigration

By: Stephen_Lendman

Obama was notoriously called America’s “deporter-in-chief” for conducting sweeping Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids nationwide - expelling record numbers, more than all his predecessors combined.

He largely targeted undocumented Mexicans and Central Americans, averaging over 1,000 deportations daily - people in the United States because destructive NAFTA and DR-CAFTA trade deals destroyed their jobs at home, or sought asylum from domestic violence and chaos.

Trump appears bent on exceeding Obama’s viciousness. Thousands of new ICE and border patrol agents are being hired. Stepped up sweeping raids will follow, more than already.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

2017 - A Sterling Year For Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: David_Morgan

I have spent most of my life watching, writing, speaking, trading, investing, and listening to almost any and everything to do with the silver market. Given this, there are several insights that you (the market) have provided me over and over again, at a level rising to conviction about many retail silver market participants.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: Steve_St_Angelo

According to Continental Resources website, it labels itself as America’s oil champion.  To be a champion, one is supposed to be winner.  Unfortunately for Continental, it’s taking a serious beating and is a perfect example of what is horribly wrong with the U.S. Shale Oil Industry.

During the beginning of the U.S. shale energy revolution, the industry stated it would make the United States energy independent.  The mainstream media picked up this positive theme and ran with it.  Americans who wanted to believe in this “Growth forever” notion, had no problem going further into debt to buy as much crap as they could to fill their homes and additional rental storage units.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Stock Market Strong Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices were very strong today to start the week with big gaps up and strong runs early morning, midday they came down three or four times and tested support, unable to break them, and then rallied in the afternoon, finishing near the highs for the day for more new all-time highs.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 118.95 at 20,743.00. The S&P 500 was up 14.22 at 2365.38. The Nasdaq 100 was up 26.00 at 5350.73. All three closed near the highs for the day.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

How The Slowing Shipping Industry Could Spark A Banking Crash In Germany / Economics / Germany

By: John_Mauldin

BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : In geopolitics, events rarely occur in isolation.

Several stories about German exports, banks, and the shipping industry recently appeared in the media. But these stories do not gain their full significance unless taken as part of a bigger picture.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Here’s Proof Rising Rates Are Good for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Mauldin

John Grandits writes: When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December—and then laid out a plan to do so three more times in 2017—theory suggested gold should fall. As gold is a non-yielding asset, the cost of holding it increases as rates rise. However, theory doesn’t always convert into practice.

Since the Fed’s decision, gold is up 7.5%—and it’s no anomaly.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

3 Ways to Quantify Risk in Today’s Murky Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Credit Indicators

One way to calculate market risk is through bond yields. As risk and return are directly correlated when a bond’s yield rises, it implies the risk of owning it has increased.

The main vehicle for measuring risk through yield is the US 10-year Treasury. The 10-year is the bellwether for global bonds as it’s considered a “risk-free” instrument. Since hitting all-time lows in July 2016, its yield has shot up 50%.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

The Nexus Between Politics and Economics / Politics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

President trump made the following crucial statement on February 9th: "We're going to be announcing something I would say over the next 2 or 3 weeks that will be phenomenal in terms of tax." To be sure, the nucleus of the President’s economic plan is the simplification of the tax code. To get this accomplished means everything for the stock market. Without a reduction in tax rates the air compressor that has been blowing up equity prices to near record and unsustainable valuations will explode.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Russia Gold Buying Is Back – Buys One Million Ounces In January / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Russia gold buying returned in January with the Russian central bank buying a very large 1 million ounces or 37 metric tonnes of gold bullion.

The increase in the gold reserves came after Russia did not buy a single ounce in December – a move seen as potentially a signal or an olive branch to the U.S. and the incoming Trump administration.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

UK First-time Home Buyer Market is Robust and Ready for Spring / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: MoneyFacts

In just a couple of weeks’ time, Spring will arrive, which is typically the time of year when house hunters start searching for their ideal home as many more houses become listed for sale. Once first-time buyers have built up a big enough deposit to get themselves onto the property ladder, the next port of call is to find the right property and to pick the best mortgage.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Gold and Silver Weekly Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the precious metals sector.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Buy Zones in an Crude Oil Bull Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in energy market, noting a major buy signal.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

US Dollar and Gold Battle of the Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

Nothing has changed from my last post on this pair. I mentioned we should expect some backtesting and that is what I am seeing on the charts. This should be expected, IMO as both are at a key inflection point in their longer Intermediate Cycles and the battle is on.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/15/usd-and-gold-update/

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

NSA and CIA is the Enemy of the People / Politics / Intelligence Agencies

By: BATR

Astute students of history understand that government agencies often further their own interests and not the administration they are designated to serve. Seldom is the genuine national security advanced when bureaucrats pledge their loyalty to their respective fiefdoms of projecting influence and power. Absent in this supremacy struggle equation is the abstract notion that state legitimacy is founded upon the will and consent of the people. Such a quaint concept does not reflect a chapter in the training manual that breeds the spooks who operate as above the law and unaccountable super spies.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Is Trump's ISIS Plan Another US Military Invasion? / Politics / War on Terror

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Just over a week into the Trump Administration, the President issued an Executive Order giving Defense Secretary James Mattis 30 days to come up with a plan to defeat ISIS. According to the Order, the plan should make recommendations on military actions, diplomatic actions, partners, strategies, and how to pay for the operation.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Before we look at some of the 2009 bull market uptrend channels there are a couple of more big consolidation patterns I would like to show you on some of the stock market indexes. The $DAX, German stock market, broke out of its 13 year triangle consolidation pattern back in 2012. Late last year it broke out of the blue bull flag with a nice clean backtest to the top rail. The big triangle consolidation pattern also had a smaller triangle as part of its internal structure.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Stock Market Uptrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues

SPX Intermediate trend: Minor reversal at 2300, followed by resumption of uptrend.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Stock Market Lindsay’s 107-day Interval / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

George Lindsay wrote of a 107-day interval which he used as a confirming tool for finding highs in the Dow. Like all of Lindsay’s models, this one was not to be used in isolation – a common mistake made by those familiar with his most popular model – Three Peaks and a Domed House.