Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Peak Wealth and Peak Energy / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Raul_I_Meijer

You could perhaps say that this is part 4 in a series on -America’s- peak wealth, even if it was never intended to be such a series; it just happened. First, in a February 18 essay about declining economic growth, “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, I said “..the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s”.

That prompted a reply from long-time Automatic Earth reader Ken Latta, which he turned into an article a few days later which I published on February 23 as “When Was America’s Peak Wealth?” Ken reasoned that America’s peak wealth was sometime in the late ’50s to early 60’s.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Trump Speech a Dollar Bust? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The USD is in the limelight again today. It has failed to better the February 15 high at 101.75, giving USD a sharp Wave 2 correction last week. Yesterday it bounced off Intermediate-term support at 100.73, but was unable to even match its 50-day Moving average at 101.37. This morning’s high was 101.22. The Cycles Model suggests the next Master Cycle low may be due on March 8, but could extend as much as another week beyond. A Pi date occurs on March 13, which matches up with a possible low in SPX as well.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Market Forecasting - Want to "Get Ahead of the Game"? Try This / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

How to breach limitations of conventional market forecasting

In this new interview, Wayne Gorman, the head of our Educational Resources department, explains -- based on his 30-year experience as a Wall Street risk manager, trader and analyst -- how Elliott waves help you get "ahead of the game."

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Record-breaking 0% Credit Card for Spending Deals / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: MoneyFacts

It’s impossible to plan for unexpected expenses, so those caught by surprise with breakdowns of white goods or even the necessity to replace a car will likely be hard-pressed to cover the cost at short notice. Fortunately for consumers who may not have a large enough nest-egg to dip into, there are an abundance of interest-free purchase credit cards to choose from that can help spread the cost.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Stock Market Crash If Trump Doesn’t Push Through the Tax Reform by 2018 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve been doing a multipart series on the proposed tax reforms in Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here for free).

In part two, I talked about what I like about the Better Way proposal. In part three, I pretty much eviscerated the border adjustment tax (BAT).

I think it has the real potential to create a global recession. You’ll need to read the series to see why, but a lot of it has to do with simple game theory.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Changes NATO Must Make To Remain A True Alliance / Politics / NATO

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : US Secretary of Defense James Mattis met with defense ministers from other NATO member countries in Brussels on Feb. 15. He had a message to deliver from the Trump White House.

The meeting was closed, but some of Mattis’s comments were released to the media: “America will meet its responsibilities, but if your nations do not want to see America moderate its commitment to this alliance, each of your capitals needs to show its support for our common defense.” He added, “America cannot care more for your children’s security than you do.”

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

This Chart Signals China’s Housing Bubble May Burst Soon / Housing-Market / China Housing Market

By: John_Mauldin

The probability that a real estate bubble may burst in China is rising. The financial sector heavily depends on real estate, which in turn exposes the entire Chinese economy to systemic risk. This link means that a downturn in real estate could soon spread to other areas of the Chinese economy if banks face liquidity shortfalls.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

US Border Adjustment Tax Could Lead to Another Great Depression / Politics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

The border adjustment tax is disruptive by its very nature. (I’m writing a series of articles about the good, the bad, and the ugly of this tax reform in Thoughts from the Frontline. Read Part 1 here).

In their defense, Paul Ryan and House Ways & Means Committee Chair Kevin Brady know everything I just said and probably agree with much of it. They believe the BAT’s negative effects will disappear quickly due to currency flows.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Major Funds Betting On Trump BioTech Sector / Companies / BioTech

By: TLSReport

Donald Trump's presidency is a real nitro boost for the future of the biotech sector in the U.S., says Tom Beck, editor of Portfolio Wealth Global.

Donald Trump's presidency is a massive boost to all industries, and is a real nitro boost for the future of the biotech sector in the U.S.

With 80 million baby-boomers looking to stay young and vital for a very long time, you should be making your move, and market-beating returns will be occurring from the large-cap stocks and in the small-cap sector even more so.

Monday, February 27, 2017

SPX Achieves Wave Equality / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Wave (v) reached equality with Wave (i) at 2370.56. That, with the VIX now back over its 50-day Moving Average, suggests the rally may be over. For safety’s sake you may wish to wait until SPX is back beneath its trendline at 2365.00, but I wouldn’t point fingers if at least a partial short position is taken.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Hillary Planning a 2020 White House Run? / Politics / US Politics

By: Stephen_Lendman

She tried and failed twice. Does she have another run in mind?

Reports suggest she may launch a TV talk show, featuring her as host, perhaps intending it to be platform for a third presidential campaign.

She considers herself party leader in exile, likely seeks revenge for losing to Trump. A TV show would be a way to bash him and serve as a self-promotion vehicle.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Will Gold Prices Finally Pull Back or Continue Marching Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Gold prices are up more than 11% since bottoming last December. Their gains last week took the gold market right up to its 50-week moving average. In 2015, attempted rallies reversed at the 50-week moving average. Could this level once again serve as a barrier to further price advances?

Either way, long-term gold bulls shouldn’t sweat this particular technical level. Major bull markets need to pull back and reconsolidate periodically.

Monday, February 27, 2017

A Global Eurodollar Shortage / Currencies / Euro

By: Gordon_T_Long

The World Bank just released a telling report entitled "Trade Developments in 2016: Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade". Though they deflect the problems in global trade to areas such as excessive regulatory initiatives and policy uncertainty (which is true), what is to be found buried in the appendix are the two un-annotated charts below. I suspect the World Bank didn't compare them directly (they are shown separately) because it would cast a spotlight on an even larger political 'football'.

How does global trade ship ~10% more trade volume but receive ~12% less revenue over a 5 year period? The answer has traditionally been significant improvements in productivity. However, the productivity numbers by country don't even come close to supporting such a premise.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 / Personal_Finance / ISA's

By: Nadeem_Walayat

According to some analysts there are emerging signs of life in the UK savings markets, so as the tax year draws to a close I take a look at if the Cash ISA market is finally starting to offer some hope to Britain's savers after a near 5 years of a catastrophic downward death spiral in interest rates, one of being ripped off by the tax payer bailed out banking crime syndicate that for the duration has continued to bank bonuses on artificial profits engineered by the Bank of England in an attempt at recapitalisng the bankrupt banks all whilst the savers continue to suffer and pay the price in terms of loss of purchasing power of savings by means of sub inflation interest rates.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Stock Market Something's Gotta' Give / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

The next confluence of Fibonacci retracements is at 2,382 and is our price target for SPX but last Friday was a 21-day cycle high so something's gotta give here. A 6mo cycle high was due last week, too.

Lindsay's 107 day interval points to a tradable high no later than today.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Could Trump's Economic Policies Propel Hated Stocks Bull Market Even Higher / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Sol_Palha

"I add this, that rational ability without education has more often raised a man to glory and virtue, than education without natural ability." Marcus T. Cicero

Before we get into the meat of this article, we would like to state at the onset that this article is not politically orientated. This election has probably been more divisive than any other election in U.S history. There are those who love Trump and those who detest him. Our views are based on market trends and not politics. Before the election results came in, we went on record to state that a Trump win would from an investing perspective prove to be a great buying opportunity and the masses would panic and dump their shares. We took the same stance on Brexit, and as they say, the rest is history.

Monday, February 27, 2017

US Dollar Rolling Over / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gary_Savage

A close below the 10 DMA on the US Dollar would be the “second step” in the confirmation that its daily cycle is rolling over and starting the next leg down in the intermediate decline. The first confirmation was the initial break of the daily cycle up trend line.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Stock Market Breakout or Breakdown? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX closed at the trading channel trendline on Friday without making a new high. In that context, it may be viewed as a possible wave (ii). However, it’s not over until it’s over. The SPX futures made a higher high in overnight trading. They are currently negative, but not so much as to proclaim victory for the bears. A decline beneath Friday’s low at 2352.87 would break the upward bias. Otherwise a breakout appears that it may be the final Wave c of (v) of [c].

Monday, February 27, 2017

Peak American Wealth – Revisited / Politics / Social Issues

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Let’s see. On February 18, I wrote an essay called “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, in which I said “..the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s”.

That provoked a wonderfully written reaction from long-time Automatic Earth reader Ken Latta, which I published on February 23 as “When Was America’s Peak Wealth?”. Ken put peak wealth sometime in the late ’50s to early 60’s. As I said then, I really liked his definition of ‘wealth’ as being “best measured by the capacity to be utterly wasteful”. The article spawned a series of nice comments, for some reason largely by people in his age bracket (Ken’s 73).

Monday, February 27, 2017

Oscars Debacle – Movies More Costly As US Dollar Devalued / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: GoldCore

• Cost of Best Picture winners show very significant devaluation of the dollar
• Average cost to make an Oscar winning film is over $43 million – in gold terms, this is over 106,000 ounces
• Four $15 million films show nearly 100% difference when priced in gold ounces
• Oscar fiasco was courtesy of error by accountants PWC
• Whilst the price of the films remained the same, the cost in gold ounces fell from 11.53% of the cost to make the Departed, in 2009 to just 6.4% in 2012
• In an error prone, irrational and volatile world, gold retains value over time …