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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Companies

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

AMD Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / AMD

By: Nadeem_Walayat

AMD - $76.5, EGF -29%%, EGF12M -8%. PE 20.3

AMD continues to crush Intel in terms of gaining market share by means of utilising TSMC technology against which a stagnating Intel could not compete that had propelled the stock to an eye watering high of $160 only to result in an even more spectacular collapse to $55! In fact when the stock was trading at it's low I posted - "The bottom line is buying AMD today at $55 is akin to buying AMD at it's cheapest valuation EVER! Which is why I am 154% invested!" Today I am still invested to the rafters in AMD at 150%. The stock price has recovered to $76, that is a near 50% advance off it's low that could run to heavy resistance at $100. However EGF's are strongly negative. which means AMD is going to find it tough going at over $80, every dollar gained will be a battle until earnings start to grow once more, so my strategy is to trim north of $80 with a view to accumulating below $70. So for AMD earnings are definitely looking like BUY the rumour and SELL the news.

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Companies

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

KLAC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings

By: Nadeem_Walayat

KLAC - $414 EGF 20%, EGF12M -9%, PE 17.5

KLA is on of my favourite higher risk semi stocks that trades on X17.5 on a market cap of $59bn about half that of AMD so not exactly a small cap high risk stock. What sticks out is it's relentless earnings growth as the below chart illustrates. The great bear market gave us two great sub $300 opps to accumulate in a stock that today at $414 carry's a lower valuation then when it was trading at $200 barely 2 years ago! If any of the semi stocks on my list is going to blast off to new all time highs then it is going to be KLA! I trimmed on the rally which brings my exposure down to 75% so I am eager to accumulate on the stocks next dip below $400 in advance NEW ALL TIME HIGHS. EGF of 20% strongly suggests to expect KLA to beat earnings.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Market Wake Up Call / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.

Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:

(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but  Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Here's a Strong Indication That the Stocks Bear Market Has Legs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI


This is what investors look for at or near a stock market low

Elliott Wave International's analysts have been observing financial markets for decades. They monitor dozens of stock market indicators, in addition to Elliott wave patterns.

No single indicator can tell the whole story of what's going on with the market, but sometimes, a single observation can carry a lot of weight.

One current observation is that many investors are still looking for reasons to be bullish, even though stocks have been in a downtrend for more than a year. In other words, they think the bear market is over.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

6 Trends to Watch in the CBD Market / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The CBD market is growing rapidly, making it challenging to stay on top of the latest trends. With consumer demand on the rise and more products than ever hitting shelves, it's essential to know what changes and innovations are happening in this exciting industry. In this post, we'll dive into key trends that entrepreneurs, retailers, and customers need to be aware of when navigating the world of CBD. From product diversification to new global regulations, these trends will provide insight into an evolving landscape, allowing you to capitalize on opportunities and make informed decisions about your journey into cannabinoids.

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Companies

Monday, January 30, 2023

Intel INTC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / INTEL

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Intel - $30.3 EGF -44%, EGF12M -34%, PE 10.7

If one just looked at the PE then Intel would look cheap, but it's EGF's are horrific which is a function of placing huge bets on new Fab's that will take several years to be built and only then will we know if the bets pay off or not. In terms of Intel's battle against AMD then the spread between the two has narrowed a little but AMD still produces the better chips by some margin that only TSMC can correct for Intel. Intel remains a sleeping giant pending earnings growth, until then the best one can hope for is that it holds the current range in attempts to build a base to recover back above $40. The bottom line is that EGF of -44% and -34% are strongly pointing to another bad earnings report on the upside everyone is now conditioned to expect bad earnings from Intel so the bad news is already baked in which means it would only take a glimmer of hope to fuel a rally in this sleeping tech giant.

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Companies

Monday, January 30, 2023

Lam Researtch LRCX Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

LRCX - $491, EGF 16%, EGF12M -13%, PE 13.9

I have to admit to having a soft spot for Lam Research which is why I am 131% invested even after trimming, trades on just X13.9, with a positive EGF of 16%, whilst earnings will contract during 2023 hence 12M EGF of -13%. However forward EGF is more guesstimate so less important than actual EGF which is strongly bullish for the stock price that has soared off it's $300 low, well done to all those who bought any of LRCX near it's low because it's not going to see those levels again anytime soon at best could dip to just below $400 below which lies heavy support, as a prelude to an eventual breakout higher to above $500 that would propel the stock towards it's all time high of $730. The bottom line is that Lam is heading for an earnings beat.

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Companies

Monday, January 30, 2023

IBM Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings

By: Nadeem_Walayat

IBM - $142 EGF 22%, EGF12M 6%, PE 16

IBM the sleeping giant was one of the best performing stocks of 2022 and with very strong EGF's has the potential to blast off out of it's multi-year trading range towards $200 a share during 2023! A fair PE of 16 coupled with high EGF's suggest IBM really could surprise all who had written it off as a dead dividend stock, not with EGF scores of +22% and +6%! So whilst the stock price says SELL the dinosaur trading at the top of it's trading range, the fundamentals of the company say higher prices, especially if one understands what's going on under the hood in terms of Quantum Computing, AI and a library of tens of thousands of patents then the picture of IBM of the past that most hold in their mind is not the same as the IBM of today. The bottom line is that IBM is primed for a positive earnings surprise!

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Companies

Monday, January 30, 2023

ASML Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ASML - $676, EGF 7%, EGF12M 6%%, PE 40

They aren't many stocks that can get away with trading on a PE of 40 but ASMAL can, why because they are a literal monopoly that no one else can replicate, produce the EUV machines that the likes of TSMC and Intel use to make the chips. First comes industry demand for the machines that make the chips then retail demand for the chips. The EGF's speak volume for why this stock trades at a hefty premium. ASML:is on a run towards new all time highs during 2023. The bottom line is that ASML will deliver an earnings BEAT.

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Companies

Monday, January 30, 2023

Tesla TSLA Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tesla

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TESLA - $143, EGF 16%, EGF12M 362%, PE 39

Tesla's PE ratio collapsed along with it's stock price to a low of $100 a share! And as expected has rebounded strongly to now well above $130 and should continue trending higher to north of $160, to eventually attempt to break back above $200 this year, but the trend will be volatile i.e. expect huge gap moves. In terms of earnings the EGF's remain strongly positive so Tesla regardless of MSM noise should continue to post positive earnings growth signs for which can be seen in the reopening of China which thus feeds the stock prices trend higher. The valuations has reset to X39 and should continue to moderate during 2023 which suggests to expect earnings to continue to grow all year. After some trimming I am currently 130% invested and I aim to continue to lighten towards being about 115% invested in this volatile AI tech giant.

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Companies

Monday, January 30, 2023

Microsoft MSFT Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Microsoft

By: Nadeem_Walayat

MSFT - $242.6, EGF 0%, EGF12M 10%, PE 26.1, Fair Value 250

GPT Microsoft trading on 26X earnings not cheap when compared to it's Quantum AI tech stock brethren. However it is the cheapest it's been at for many a year having traded down to equal it's pandemic low valuation which also illustrates why many so called analysts waiting for the PRICE to revisit pandemic levels don't have a clue what they are doing. In terms of downside risk Microsoft is shouting that it is reluctant to trade down to $200, so in terms of buying the $228 to $208 range is the best one can expect to accumulate in. The EGF's say it all, 0%, and +10% whilst most are negative, thus is sowing the seeds for a resumption of it's bull market so I expect a positive response to earnings likely to increasing to boost their coffers by capitalising upon GPT3-4-5, that they hope can finally put a dent into the Google search money making machine, though I seriously doubt they will! I am currently 37% invested and will continue to seek opps to increase exposure to this primary AI tech stock.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 30, 2023

Stock Market Big Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell.

The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next week!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 30, 2023

Riding the Stock Market FOMO Rally in Tech Stocks - Investing 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market FOMO rally us underway, were you already fully invested months ago or have you been watching too much of CNBC cartoon network and are thus sat on the sidelines or worse FOMO-ing in right now, here's how I am riding the FOMO rally off the October 2022 low.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, January 30, 2023

How to save money as a startup in 2023 / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Running a startup can be a costly endeavour, especially in the early stages when resources are limited. The strain may be even harder with the current economic climate, with many predicting a global recession in 2023.

However, there are ways to save money and stretch your budget further. This article aims to outline some methods of how startups can save money in 2023.

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Currencies

Friday, January 27, 2023

Bitcoin FTX Crime Scene Price CAPITULATION! / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article is part 2 of 3 of as excerpted form my extensive analysis Stocks Analysis Bonanza - GOOG, QCOM, ASML, TCHEY, BABA, BIDU, TSLA, WDC, RBLX, MGNI, COIN, BITCOIN CAPITULATION! that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.

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Commodities

Friday, January 27, 2023

Natural Gas: Here's What Happened After a "Double Top" / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: EWI

A key technical pattern warns of a reversal

It probably won't be a surprise to you that Elliott Wave International is an advocate of technical analysis. After all, the Elliott wave method is a form of technical analysis.

You probably know that the term "technical analysis" refers to analyzing the behavior of financial markets themselves -- generally by studying charts -- as opposed to "fundamental" analysis, which is based on news and events outside of financial markets.

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Commodities

Friday, January 27, 2023

Anti-Gold Bias: The Big Secret Wall Street DOESN'T Want You to Know / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

By Stefan Gleason, Last year was one of the worst on record for a conventional stock and bond portfolio. The major stock and bond market indexes both fell by double digits.

Investors who were diversified into physical precious metals fared much better. While it wasn't a banner year for gold and silver markets, they eked out slight gains – which translated into a massive outperformance versus conventional financial assets.

Unfortunately, conventional financial advice continues to keep most investors 100% allocated to financial assets with zero diversification into hard assets.

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Companies

Friday, January 27, 2023

Should I Borrow from Friends and Family to Start a Business? / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Finding ways to fund your fledgling business is always difficult. Although there are many channels that you can go through, such as small business loans, it can be advantageous to approach friends and family for initial startup money. It worked for Jeff Bezos, who received $300,000 from his parents as an initial investment in Amazon. 

However, borrowing informally from friends and family comes with several complications that should be considered before you make that all important pitch. Below is a list of the pros and cons of borrowing from friends and family when starting a business.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

STEALTH INFLATION / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold and especially Silver are coming alive, the sleepers finally waking up to the INFLATION that they have been waiting for a decade to materialise. Where most are focused on the smoke and mirrors annual rate of CPLIE that the clueless mainstream media will latch onto to indicate that the Fed is winning and inflation is being defeated as the annual rate of CPI falls as the economy weakness..

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Gold’s Battle to Break the 2011 High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Between 2020 and now, quite a lot happened, quite a lot of money was printed, and we saw a war breaking out in Europe. Yet gold failed to rally to new highs.

 Gold Had Chances

In fact, it’s trading very close to its 2011 high, which tells you something about the strength of this market. It’s almost absent.

Truth be told, what we see in gold is quite in tune with what we saw after the 2011 top, and in particular, shortly after the 2012 top. We can also spot similarities between now and 2008. The long-term gold price chart below provides details.

Actually, since gold is now practically just where it was a week ago, my Monday’s description of the below gold chart remains up-to-date:

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