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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Monday, March 06, 2023

Stocks Bull Market Milestones / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chat AI War has begun! You thought it was game over with Open AI GPT? That is just the start! In fact I consider GPT a toddler compared to Google's Einstein! Because GOOGLE MONETIZES their AI to the tune of $40 billion per quarter! It's called Google SEARCH! Whilst Microsoft is onto a winner of sorts, however it isn't going to even come close to dethroning Google!

Woo hoo mission accomplished on run to S&P 4040! What mission? Trimming! Cash on accounts up from 7% a couple of weeks ago 10.8% today, trust me having adequate cash on account makes a big difference to ones investing psychology, the difference between fearing price drops to anticipating them even if one is near 90% invested, so maybe those skimming along at near 100% invested need to look into trimming, for me 12% cash is my current goldilocks zone as a function of the accounts I hold i.e. a wide spectrum from those designed for high turnover such as Etorro right trough to the glacial Interactive Investor and AJ Bell where one is reluctant to act due to rip off fees, which is actually a good thing for the long run.

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Commodities

Monday, March 06, 2023

Silver’s Subtle Indication / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Namely, while the GDXJ (upper part of the chart) moved only a little above its recent high, silver has pretty much doubled its previous short-term upswing.

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Currencies

Monday, March 06, 2023

Using Forex Trading Charts for Trend Analysis & Predictive Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The foreign exchange, or forex, market is the largest financial market in the world. Traders in the forex market use various tools to analyse trends and make informed trading decisions. One of the most valuable tools for forex traders is the trading chart, which enables traders to track market movements and identify potential trading opportunities.

This article will explore how forex trading charts can be used for trend analysis and predictive trading. If you’re looking for a way to level up your forex trading game, why not use the tradingview platform?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Current State of the Stocks Stealth Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow closed Monday at 33,629 vs the trend forecast road map of 32,750, so the Dow continues to show a positive deviation against the forecast of +2.7%, up from the +2.2% deviation as of 9th of Jan.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Warning: Dark Days are Closing in on Apple / Companies / Apple

By: Stephen_McBride

iPhone sales are in trouble… Apple’s “dirty” growth tactic can no longer mask its disappointing results… Could this “mystery” project save Apple from doom?…

  1. I’ve got some bad news… Dark days are closing in on Apple.

I understand this may come as a shock.

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Housing-Market

Monday, February 27, 2023

US Housing Market House Prices Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The only way I am going to be able to get the US housing market mega analysis done and dusted is if I break it up into digestible chunks, hence it will be delivered in 3 parts -

1. US Housing Stocks and Implications for House Prices

2. US Economy Implications for House Prices.

3. US House Prices Analysis and concluding 3 year trend forecast.

Why housing stocks first and not last?

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Companies

Sunday, February 26, 2023

The META METAVERSE MEGA-TREND - AI VR Tech Stocks Investing 2023 / Companies / Metaverse

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After descending into the depths of hell the META Stock price is coming alive as that which the herd pundits dismiss as a gimmick is starting to gain traction, the METAVERSE, they will only get it when they see META trade to new all time highs, gaming is where it is right now and what most focus on but that is a mere pinprick of what the Metaverse will herald, realistic computer generated worlds in real time. One aspect of the Metaverse that most completely miss is GAME PLAYING! Not playing games but GAME PLAYING where one plays out scenarios in the metaverse...

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Commodities

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Gold Price Is ALMOST Ready to Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA


Enough is enough. No market can decline without correcting every now and then. And both gold and the USDX point to an upcoming reversal.

Let’s start with gold.

Is It Over?

Looking at its price from a short-term point of view, we see that it paused for a brief moment at its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Stock Market Every thing Every Where All At Once! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually everyone was open jawed last week as to why the hell are stock prices soaring on BAD EARNINGS reports and yes regardless of how the headless chickens on the cartoon network (CNBC) were reacting in trying to explain the price action they were BAD EARNINGS reports as flagged by the EGF's which had zero impact on stock prices that instead of plunging soared into the stratosphere, why? It's because earnings reports are looking in the rear view mirror at what has already happened which is why one needs to be aware of current EGF and future EGF as well as current P/E relative to the high-low P/E range for each stock as shown in my AI stocks table. Our perception of time is not linear as we flit from the past (memories) into the future (forecasts, hopes and dreams) and back into the present, in a constant state of flux and so it is for all market participants which is the true nature of the markets, everything, everywhere all at once.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Fed President Worried the Fed Risks a Repeat of the 1970s / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets drifted lower again this week as investors braced for additional Fed rate hikes to come.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest policy meeting. Policymakers agreed on the need for additional increases in interest rates. They settled on just a 0.25% bump up at their last meeting. But some dissenters called for a larger 0.5% hike.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Oil Price Rises Despite Larger US Crude Stocks. Russian Production Worries / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

The two global crude benchmarks are still enjoying momentum that began on Thursday – despite larger-than-expected US crude inventories – following reports from the financial press that Russia will cut oil exports from its western ports by 25% per month in March compared to February in response to Western sanctions.

These claims, however, have not yet been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Energy.

The western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk export around 2.5 million barrels of crude a day. Therefore, a 25% reduction would imply a reduction in exports of 625,000 barrels per day, or about 0.6% of the world oil supply.

This contraction would thus exceed that announced by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Energy, Alexander Novak, earlier in February by 500,000 barrels per day.

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Politics

Sunday, February 26, 2023

UK Tomatoes, Cucumbers and Eggs Panic Buying - Food Crisis 2023 / Politics / Food Crisis

By: N_Walayat

Mover over bog roll the new panic buying is for Tomatoes and Cucumbers due to shortage of produce as the European Union limits supplies to Britain as another punishment for voting for Brexit. The UK should do similar by refusing to sell British Gas to the EU but weak and feeble Rishi Sunak won't do that! So here we are once more panic buying perishable foods as supermarkets limit sale of Eggs, Cucumbers and Tomatoes. However there are solutions - Grow Your Own!

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Commodities

Thursday, February 23, 2023

Gold: What "Colossal" Central Bank Buying May Mean / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: EWI


"Central banks are so confident that gold prices will continue rising that they are..."

Central banks have been scooping up gold with a vengeance.

Here's a Jan. 31 Financial Times headline:

'Colossal' central bank buying drives gold demand to decade high

Interestingly, just a few days later on Feb. 3, the precious metal dropped by more than 2%. But setting aside near-term price moves in gold, what you need to know is that government is nearly always the last to act on a financial trend. In other words, when government acts, a financial trend is either nearly or already over.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, February 23, 2023

When to use a Life Insurance Broker / Personal_Finance / Insurance

By: Submissions

Life insurance is a crucial way to protect yourself and your family’s financial future. As such, you must understand the different life insurance policies available and choose the right one for your needs. A life insurance broker can help simplify this process, offering expert guidance and advice on the best options to suit your situation. But when should you use a life insurance broker?

This article provides scenarios where using a life insurance broker could be beneficial.

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InvestorEducation

Thursday, February 23, 2023

What to Do When Making an Initial Investment / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Sumeet_Manhas

When you have decided to make an initial investment, there are many steps that you need to take beforehand to ensure that you are able to do this without a hitch. As such, here is what you should do when making a financial investment in 2023.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 20, 2023

Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Did you catch the Pump into last weeks US CP LIE data followed by the Dump? What happen's next - Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release

The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.

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Commodities

Monday, February 20, 2023

Inflation & Commodities / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Gary_Tanashian

The news is full of articles now discussing how food (Staples) producer prices are going to continue rising, how warehouse and distribution channels are pushing “inflation” higher, how charges to use cargo containers and transportation are all pushing “inflation” higher.

The inflationary acts were committed in 2020 and 2021. The inflation was inflicted then and is now history. What is happening now is a plethora of knock-on effects from the inflation. It’s lagging, sticky and in some cases opportunistic and greedy stuff that is not inflation but instead, the predictable after-effects of it.

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Commodities

Monday, February 20, 2023

More Headwinds for Commodity Market Bulls / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

Commodity bulls are facing a challenging year ahead.
Some natural resources were benefiting and riding on the coattails of mounting inflationary pressure in 2020 through to mid-2022, such as oil and Natural gas, while others (gold and silver) were still prospering from the low US dollar and near zero Fed interest rates in 2019.

However, conditions started to change for most commodities in mid-2022 (Chart 1).

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 20, 2023

Silent Killers of Stock and Bond Investors 50+ / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a single one of them knew what drawdowns were, as there are two types. In short, it is how we gauge an overall investment strategy’s risk level so you know if a given approach fits within your risk tolerance.

I did a survey several years ago that still blows my mind because the results were so backwards and frustrating. To this day, I’m experiencing the same thing with traders and investors, so I want to talk about it here – drawdowns and what you may not know about them.

A drawdown measures how much an investment or trading account is down from its highest point. It is used to quantify the extent of loss suffered by an investor or trader during a period of market decline. A drawdown is expressed as a percentage. Also, the maximum drawdown (MaxDD) is the largest percentage drop from the account’s highest point to its lowest point over the life of the strategy, which in laymen’s terms, is the largest loss.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 19, 2023

The Truth No One Wants to Hear about Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023

By: Submissions

By Justin Spittler : I’ve been getting under some people’s skin.

And it’s because I’ve been unapologetically bullish for the last couple months.

I get it. No one wants to hear the bull argument after the horrible year we just had in stocks.

But things have changed.

Many investors haven’t entertained the possibility that last year’s bear market is over.

They’re certain the stock market will head much lower.

Their arguments sound something like: “Inflation is still too high; the economy is speeding toward a recession; the Fed isn’t done raising rates.”
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