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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

The Definitive Guide to FTX’s Crypto Collapse / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Everything you need to know about FTX’s collapse in plain English... What it means for crypto... Is Coinbase next?... And what all crypto investors need to do right now...

Is crypto dead?

That’s the question many folks around the Thanksgiving table were asking following crypto exchange FTX’s collapse.

I’ve been following the fallout from FTX’s collapse closely in my premium RiskHedge Venture service. But this analysis is too important to only share with a fraction of our readers. So today, let’s look at what really caused FTX’s downfall… what it means for crypto prices… and how to position yourself for the rebound.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

TESCO Budget 6foot Artificial Christmas TREE, Any Good? - How to Beat the Cost of Living Crisis / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Eliza_Walayat

Is TESCO Budget 6foot Christmas tree any Good? Lets find out as we try to beat the cost of living INFLATION CRISIS by grabbing one at our local Tesco store at a club card discount, how much did it cost £15 discounted from £25. Lets see if it looks as good as picture on the box, and how hard is to setup.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 20, 2022

STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly this video is an excerpt of my mega-analysis that concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023, that was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a patron from supporting my work for just 4 bucks for month, lock it in now as it is set to rise to 5 bucks per month in the new year.

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Companies

Monday, December 19, 2022

AI Tech Stocks TRAVELLING THROUGH TIME AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE! / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Many analysts refer to what happened decades ago to try and imply to expect similar today, what is it that they are blind to that ensures the past is not a good measure of the future? What they miss is the exponential nature of the trend we are upon! We are RACING THROUGH TIME AT AN ACCLERATING PACE! What not so long ago took decades now has been compressed into years! What not so long ago took years now takes months! That is the exponential AI mega-trend in a nutshell and it is ACCELERATING! Go back a thousand years and nothing much change for most folks for centuries! Go back 100 years and the changes would be measured in terms of decades! Go back 50 years and changes were measured in years! Today the pace of change is in the months! And yes it will become in the weeks! So how are we to capitalise on this exponential trend? By investing in the stocks that are making the trend become manifest, holding on with both hands as they whip through time at an exponential rate, clinging on as we watch those who SELL fall behind waiting for a dip to get back on board.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, December 19, 2022

TESCO Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2022 - How to Beat the Cost of Living Crisis / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Eliza_Walayat

Bargain Christmas last minute shopping at TESCO, can we get a 6 foot tree for half price? Find out as with cost of living crisis belts tight here we show how you can get your christmas decorations shop done for Under £20! All thanks to likes of TESCO.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Stocks and the US Presidential Election Cycle  / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 analysis -

So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!

So far so good, what next? We'll for 8 straight decades stock market indices such as the Dow and S&P have headed higher after the ,mid-terms with the average gain being 15%.

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Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2022

2023: Preparing for tectonic shifts in the world economy  / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Colossal structural shifts are taking place in the global economy, as evidenced by the huge challenges during the ongoing year. In 2023, China seeks recovery, but the West – the US, the Eurozone and the UK, and Japan - will cope with recession and the specter of a debt crisis.

In a recent Foreign Affairs commentary, Mohamed A. El-Erian warned that we are not facing just extraordinarily challenging business-cycle fluctuations, but structural and secular long-term pressures. As a result, “the global economy may never be the same.”

In reality, the “old normal” has been history since 2008 and the consequent debt crises. During the past decade, world economy has been driven by geopolitical agendas, not by economic priorities. And the results have been predictable: catastrophic.

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, December 18, 2022

Best Student Budget Laptop 2023 - AMD OLED 5600H, 5800H REAL Customer Review / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

After much research weighing up the pros and cons, specs and price we finally settled on the ASUS Vivobook Pro OLED as the best budget Student laptop a 512gb SSD, 16gb Ram, Ryzen laptop comes in two variations, the 5600H or the 5800H. Wait there's more! The SCREEN is truly fantastic! OLED 2.8k! WOW on a budget laptop that currently costs £515 for the 5600h (Amazon link) or less than £600 for the 5800h, for those who want the 2 extra cores, and a slightly more powerful IGPU.

Find out as we setup and use the laptop for the first time of why this could be the budget laptop for 2023, given the price drops in anticipation of Ryzen 7000 mobile CPUs.. Real review after extensive reseach.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings Analysis / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Not satisfied with seasonal swings I've continued last years near term years seasonal analysis by comparing the year on year change which suggests that the market IS at BOTTOM and thus due a rally into Mid October for a higher low retest into early November, though October should end higher than where it began, where an early November low sets the scene for a powerful rally into at at least Christmas, 2023 bull into September, down into October start.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Michael_Pento

The cornerstones in my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model are changes made to fiscal and monetary policies. Those are the two most determinant factors in any fiat-currency and debt-based monetary system.

Monetary policies have been ratcheting up tightly since March of this year when the Fed began to move away from its zero-interest rate policy; and Quantitative Tightening ramped up to $95 billion per month in September. Rate hikes will continue throughout the first quarter of next year, just as the extreme pace of balance sheet reduction continues to roll on. The rapid increase in the Fed Funds Rate has depressed the demand for new loans. It has also led to the net percentage of banks tightening lending standards to soar from -32.4% in Q3 of 2021, to a positive 39.1% in Q4 of this year. In a debt-based monetary system, money is created when new loans are produced. To this point, what is happening now is that the amount of fed credit (base money supply) is being destroyed at a record pace, just as banks are slamming the door shut on new loans due to the eroding economy. Hence, the M2 money supply has crashed from a humongous growth rate of 26.7% in February of 2021, to a year-over-year pace that is now shrinking.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Stock Market Another Fail Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the December 06, 2022, Market Minute titled "Recap of key market structure going into Q1" The benchmark equity index (S&P 500) has made another failed attempt to rise. In mid-December, the index reached the downward sloping trend at 4070 at immediately retreated.

This is the fourth failed attempt to cross the line.  

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2022

Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

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Commodities

Friday, December 16, 2022

Gold Defies Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold defied another hawkish Fed decision this week, consolidating high in its immediate wake.  That was an impressive show of strength, after this extreme Fed tightening cycle hammered gold for a half-year or so.  That strong performance reflects gold-futures speculators’ weakening resolve to keep shorting.  With their long-side selling exhausted, they have massive mean-reversion buying to do which is super-bullish for gold.

Gold was looking really good technically heading into this week’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  Since late September, it had blasted 11.5% higher in a powerful rebound on big gold-futures short-covering buying.  That catapulted gold back above its key 200-day moving average on FOMC eve, by the most since mid-June.  Gold was a hair away from a decisive 200dma breakout, after escaping its downtrend.

The FOMC decision itself wasn’t a surprise, with the Fed hiking its federal-funds rate by 50 basis points.  That was a sharp slowdown from the streak of monster 75bp hikes executed at its previous four meetings.  The FOMC statement was virtually unchanged from its last iteration in early November.  With this week’s 50bp hike universally expected, that didn’t faze gold-futures speculators.  They focused on something else.

Once a quarter after every other FOMC decision, the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections by individual top Fed officials.  This is better known as the dot plot, since it shows where they see FFR levels heading in the future.  Though notoriously unreliable in predicting where the FFR is actually going according to the Fed chair himself, traders lap that up.  This week it proved more hawkish than expected.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2022

Are Stocks In a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

Stocks sold off on Thursday, as Central Banks signaled more tightening ahead. Is this a new downtrend?

The S&P 500 index lost 2.49% on Thursday, as it extended its short-term downtrend after breaking below the 4,000 level. The market continued to react on Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. Yesterday it went the lowest since November 10.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2022

Stock Market Indexes Rejected At Resistance Signal Another Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stocks struggled with overhead resistance for the past week. While seasonal trends usually favor a year-end rally, this year’s rally may already have finished.

January will be the month to watch. If the market closes with a positive January, we almost always have a strong year for stocks. But if not, we could be in for a doozy of a bear market in the first half of 2023.

This week we had more hawkish Fed talk on Wednesday, suggesting that rates will remain higher for a longer period of time. This week’s economic reports for November showed a drop in retail sales and manufacturing, which raises concern that the economy is weakening.

Falling bond yields are also hinting at a recession in 2023, as are falling commodity prices. Stock indexes look to have had an exhaustion gap higher, followed by heavy institutional selling after the CPI data came out. This further confirms my thinking that money managers are unloading shares into every rally possible before the next major leg down for stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Stock Market Tough Inflation Stance Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.

The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Stock Margin Debt, Market Breadth and Investor Sentiment Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will there be an Early Fed Pivot?

Well all of these dollars flooding into the US are going to push up asset prices / generate economic activity, so a strong dollar is also acting to mute the Fed's actions and thus Jerome Powell could deliver on what his dot plot implies i.e. that the Fed funds rate rises to 4.75% during Q1 2023 which means continuing dollar strength and pain for most economies and downwards pressure on stock prices. Though stock prices tend to discount the future and so are factoring in the possibility of 4.75% in today's stock prices rather than wait for March 2023, following which the Fed's Dots suggest rates falling to 2.5%. Though the Fed dot plots are virtually always wrong 1 year out.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Banzai CPI and Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...

Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.

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Currencies

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Is Forex Worth It? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

The answer to the question depends on who you ask! For instance, someone with a sound plan and risk management plan will find forex trading worthwhile. Someone who has attempted to invest money through Forex trading and did not avail what he expected, he might respond that it is not worthwhile.

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