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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Monday, December 31, 2018

How to Fund Trumps Border Wall While Saving Lives / Politics / US Politics

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Trump and Congressional Democrats have decided to enliven the Christmas season with a game of chicken over President Trump’s proposed “border wall.” As a result, the federal government is partly shut down until the issue is resolved.

The President wants $5 billion to start building the wall. Democrats have offered just $1.6 billion. If the problem truly is money and not that the Democrats oppose a wall under any circumstances, there is a place in the federal budget to find all the money the President wants while saving thousands of lives a year in the process.

More than 700,000 Americans are afflicted with kidney failure. Of those, almost 30 percent live with transplant kidneys with the remaining 70 percent on dialysis. Under a 1972 law, the federal government pays for kidney dialysis for every American whose private insurance does not cover treatment. In 2016, the latest year for which data are available, Medicare spent $35.4 billion on patients with kidney failure (read: end stage renal disease).

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Economics

Monday, December 31, 2018

China’s 2019 Economic Growth Outlook / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As China’s growth seems to be slowing, some observers see the country amid a “severe downturn.” As they mistake China’s secular deceleration with cyclical fluctuations, they miss the rapid increase in Chinese living standards.

Amid the Christmas meltdown, the Dow Jones plunged to less than 22,000, the lowest since September 2017. Thereafter, it soared over 1,000 points; the biggest single-day point gain ever. Nevertheless, it has declined 4,000 points in two months.

It is this historical market volatility associated with the Trump administration that now overshadows world economy and China. In recent weeks, the U.S. economy has become increasingly exposed to policy mistakes and drastic market fluctuations.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 31, 2018

The Stock Market Plunge Protection Team, The Fed & The Investor Costs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Dan_Amerman

The "Plunge Protection Team" is the colloquial name for the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). The Working Group was established by the executive order of President Reagan in 1988, in the aftermath of the stock market plunge of October, 1987.

The group reports to the President, and the official members of the group include the Secretary of the Treasury, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the chairman of the SEC, and the chairman of the CFTC. In other words, the group members are the four most powerful financial officials in the United States. In practice, the committee can be composed of senior aides and officials that have been designated by those top officials.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 31, 2018

The Stock Market Made a Sharp Reversal Last Week. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market is making an oversold bounce right now, and is stuck at its fibonacci retracement (23.6%). The standard target for a bounce is 38.2% – 50%

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Personal_Finance

Monday, December 31, 2018

Ultimate Guide for ISA Stocks & Shares / Personal_Finance / ISA's

By: Sumeet_Manhas

What are ISA Stocks & Shares?
Individual Savings Accounts (ISA) Stocks and Shares is an investment account that is tax efficient and allows you to invest your money into a wide range of investments including Open-ended investment companies, Investment trusts, unit trusts, corporate and government bonds. It also gives you an option to buy shares of individual companies and put them in your Individual Savings Account.

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Currencies

Monday, December 31, 2018

Crypto Fund / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Sumeet_Manhas

....

 


Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Cyclical Assets vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

Cyclical Assets vs. Gold

In January of 2018 we noted a cyclical leader (Semiconductor Fab Equipment) in trouble: Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018.

We also ran a series of articles featuring the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (of the macro) in order to gauge a point when larger herds of investors would become aware of cyclical issues facing the global (including the US) economy. Each Amigo (SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Treasury yields and a flattening Yield Curve) would ride with the good times but signal an end to those good times when reaching destination (Amigos 1 & 2 got home but #3, the Yield Curve is still out there). Here is the latest Amigos status update from October: SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve.

Today I would like to stick with a cyclical macro view, but do so through a lens filtered by the ultimate counter-cyclical asset, gold. As market participants, we are lost if we do not have road maps. That is why we (NFTRH) gauged Semi Equipment vs. Semi (and Tech), the unified messages of the macro Amigo indicators and many other breadth and cyclical indicators along the way to safely guide us to Q4 2018, which has been a challenge for many, but business as usual for those of us who were prepared.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Gold, Silver, Bitcoin - Looking Back, Looking Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

This year has seen a lot of volatility in the financial markets, Bitcoin, precious metals and other commodities. Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors, takes a look back on the lessons he has learned, and also looks ahead to what 2019 may bring.

The Gold Report: Frank, thanks for joining us today. Let's start with what lessons you've learned from the markets in the past year.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Will Coins and Bars Save Gold 2019? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

There is a disconnection between paper and physical gold prices and the former has to catch up with the latter eventually. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about demand for gold coins and bars and find out whether it will save the yellow metal.

The best stories are about the conflict between good and evil, or light and dark. In the precious metals market, we also have such a narrative, or actually several variations on the theme. But one of the most popular thread is the ‘disconnection’ between paper and physical gold. The characters are clearly identified: paper market is the powerful Empire while the physical gold is Rebellion, which heroically fights a stronger and more vicious opponent.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, December 30, 2018

UK House Prices Bank of England 30% Crash Warning vs Momentum Forecast 2019 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the next analysis in this series to conclude in a new detailed multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.

So is a NO DEAL 30% crash in UK house prices even possible let alone probable as the Bank of England forecasts? Lets see what momentum suggests is going to happen in 2019.

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ConsumerWatch

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Buying a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2019 - What You Need to Know / ConsumerWatch / Motoring

By: N_Walayat

Considering buying a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2019. We'll here is my comprehensive mega review of what's good and bad about the car after having owned and driven a HSE Black trim for over 1 year! All of your questions answered that you would need to ask before buying a Discovery Sport, after having put the car through its paces for a whole year of driving, of what to expect under real world driving conditions, all that is good and bad which includes the following and more -

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, December 30, 2018

How to Bake a Festive Happy New Year 2019 Chocolate Cake! / Personal_Finance / Educating Children

By: Anika_Walayat

Anika aged 10 demonstrates how to have fun in the countdown to the New Year by baking an amazing, delicious festive chocolate cake. It's easy so come on kids get your parents involved and lets all get baking fresh chocolate cakes in the countdown to the New Year.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Stock markets are forever cyclical, an endless series of alternating bulls and bears.  And after one of the greatest bulls in US history, odds are a young bear is now gathering steam.  It is being fueled by record Fed tightening, bubble valuations, trade wars, and mounting political turmoil.  Bears are dangerous events driving catastrophic losses for buy-and-hold investors.  Different strategies are necessary to thrive in them.

This major inflection shift from exceptional secular bull to likely young bear is new.  By late September, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had soared 333.2% higher over 9.54 years in a mighty bull.  That ranked as the 2nd-largest and 1st-longest in US stock-market history!  At those recent all-time record highs, investors were ecstatic.  They euphorically assumed that bull run would persist for years.

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Economics

Saturday, December 29, 2018

How Trump’s Trade Policies Actually Damage the Economy / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

We have a temporary truce in the trade war.

No one is quite sure if it will last, especially financial markets. After a short-lived rally, they saw little to celebrate in the latest Trump-Xi meeting. 

The US and China have serious disputes. And I think tariffs are the wrong tool to solve them. So I’m not optimistic this break will accomplish much either. We’ll see.

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Politics

Saturday, December 29, 2018

Universal Basic Income Is Easier Than It Looks / Politics / Benefits

By: Ellen_Brown

Calls for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) have been increasing, most recently as part of the “Green New Deal” introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and supported in the last month by at least 40 members of Congress. A UBI is a monthly payment to all adults with no strings attached, similar to Social Security. Critics say the Green New Deal asks too much of the rich and upper-middle-class taxpayers who will have to pay for it, but taxing the rich is not what the resolution proposes. It says funding would primarily come from the federal government, “using a combination of the Federal Reserve, a new public bank or system of regional and specialized public banks,” among other vehicles.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 29, 2018

2019: Zombie Markets Before The Fall / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I haven’t really written about finance since April of this year, and given recent fluctuations in what people persist in calling the markets, maybe it’s time. Then again, nothing has changed since that article in April entitled This Is Not A Market. I was right then, and I still am.

[..] markets need price discovery as much as price discovery needs markets. They are two sides of the same coin. Markets are the mechanism that makes price discovery possible, and vice versa. Functioning markets, that is. Given the interdependence between the two, we must conclude that when there is no price discovery, there are no functioning markets. And a market that doesn’t function is not a market at all.

[..] we must wonder why everyone in the financial world, and the media, is still talking about ‘the markets’ (stocks, bonds et al) as if they still existed. Is it because they think there still is price discovery? Or do they think that even without price discovery, you can still have functioning markets? Or is their idea that a market is still a market even if it doesn’t function?

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Currencies

Saturday, December 29, 2018

Will Japanese Yen Continue to Outperform in 2019? / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Care to guess what is the best performing major currency in 2018? Chances are you will say that it’s the US Dollar. Although US Dollar is doing pretty well this year, the best performing currency is in fact the Japanese Yen. You can see in the table below that despite the Dollar Index rallying 4.9% as of Dec 27th, the Yen has outperformed the U.S Dollar by 1.43%. We can also see the U.S. Dollar has rallied against all the other major currencies, but the Japanese Yen has rallied even at a greater percentage against the same currency. For example, EURUSD has dropped 5.08%, meaning that U.S Dollar has rallied 5.08% against European Dollar this year. However, EURJPY dropped 6.5%, which means that Japanese Yen has rallied at a greater percentage against the European dollar.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 29, 2018

World Stock Market Indices: When to Start Buying Stocks Again? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The World Indices have shown a sideways to lower year in 2018. The last Quarter alone World Indices lost their gains, for example, the SPX or the Dow Jones. Other World indices peaked earlier than others this year and some of them did not produce new highs again.

There is a lot of speculation going around the Market which results in many questions which need to be answered. We can hear a lot of experts calling different reasons and scenarios. It goes from a Political crisis to the Trade war with China, to the Feds raising interest rates and many more assumptions. However, the reality is that neither of the mentioned reasons can justify the latest moves in our opinion.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, December 29, 2018

How Fractional Shares Benefit Investors / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Have you ever wondered what you would do with the small balance on your gift balance because there is nothing you can afford and buy with it? A similar issue is experienced when buying investments like stocks and ETF in whole share quantities. Fractional shares give investors flexibility in two main areas; to put all the available cash for immediate work and buy fractions of stock in companies with a high price per share.

There are sites where you can specify the number of fractional shares you intend to trade. Then, the online calculator helps you determine the number of shares you can actually trade. Shares are whole units which are offered by companies as stock. These stocks are then traded on the open market in full share quantities. Most brokers discourage investors from buying and selling stock in whole share quantities.
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Commodities

Friday, December 28, 2018

Can Gold Swim in a Crosscurrent? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell noticed some crosscurrents in the path of the US economy. Will it stay on the surface? And is gold a good swimmer?

Crosscurrents Cause Fewer Hikes

We hope that you enjoyed Christmas. As we promised last week, we will analyze the post-meeting Powell’s press conference today. The Fed Chair remained optimistic about the US economy, which “has continued to perform well.” However, “some crosscurrents have emerged.” Powell meant the moderation of global growth, increased financial market volatility, and tightened financial conditions. As a consequence, the Fed now sees only two instead of three hikes in 2019:

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