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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Russia Ukraine Tension Blinded Gold Ignores the Real Threats: USDX and Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation.

With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market.

However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Helium Prices Are Set To Soar As Supply Shortage Looms / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: OilPrice_Com

...

 


Commodities

Monday, February 14, 2022

How To Play The Coming Helium Boom / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: OilPrice_Com

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Commodities

Friday, February 11, 2022

Gold Withstands the Storm. Will Miners Drag It off the Raft? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In line with bearish bets, miners have thrown a match. Gold, however, doesn’t want to leave the ring without a fight. How long will it stay high?

While gold remains relatively firm despite stock market turbulence, rising real yields, and bearish technical indicators, even a confluence of headwinds hasn’t been able to knock the yellow metal off its lofty perch. However, mining stocks haven’t been so lucky. With my short position in the GDXJ ETF offering a great risk-reward proposition, the junior gold miners’ underperformance has played out exactly as I expected.

Moreover, with major spikes in volume preceding predictable sell-offs (follow the vertical dashed lines below), I’ve warned on several occasions that the GDX ETF is prone to tipping its hand – we saw this volume spike in January, which was the 2022 top (as of today). In addition, with mining investors’ power drying up by the day, the medium-term looks equally unkind.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 06, 2022

Will the Fed Tighten Gold? The Consequences Might Be Ignoble / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down.

The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements.

First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay.
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Commodities

Sunday, February 06, 2022

Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical Analyst Clive Maund examines the charts for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, code GDX, and sees good cause to be positive about gold's future outlook.

In this update we are going to do something that we haven’t done for a while, which is to examine the charts for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, code GDX, in an effort to figure out where it is in its cycle, and as we will see there is every reason to be positive about its future outlook.

Generally speaking, the Precious Metals sector has been dull for a long time, since early August 2020 to be exact and it has seriously underperformed the market as a whole, which is a positive in the sense that this makes it more undervalued with more upside.

In recent months, as we can see on the latest 6-month chart, GDX has been pretty much rangebound above a strong support level, with its overall trend being neutral to slightly lower. Over the past couple of weeks it has dropped quite sharply, which of course was partly in sympathy with the sharp drop in the broad market, and it is looking more of a buy here with the appearance of a bull hammer on Friday close to the support.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 05, 2022

A Gold-centric Macro View / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

As the gold “community” rationalizes gold’s currently low standing…

As unpopular it may be, I cannot alter the truth as I see it. Marketing is fine, but never at the expense of truth, as with much financial media/analysis (with little disclaimers tucked in below the fold).

In my opinion, a sizeable component of the gold ‘market’ is actually marketing; to the fearful, to the naive, to the biased, to the politically rigid… Also in my opinion, Twitter is a breeding ground made for brief promos, sloganeering and bias reinforcement.

Pop up mini-screed behind us, let’s take another view of the macro from the perspective of a pretty rock that is heavy and does nothing, other than provide an anchor to long-term value in a bubble era where value is temporarily an outmoded concept. You don’t root for gold. You play the macro and keep an eye on gold, because when it is time to be bullish on gold, it will mean that…

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Commodities

Saturday, February 05, 2022

Gold and silver Inflation Safe Havens / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

The US Federal Reserve, whose job is to keep unemployment in check and inflation in the “Goldilocks” zone of 2%, is telegraphing three interest rate increases of 0.25% each (1% at the high end of the range) this year.

Bloomberg believes the Fed might be more aggressive: “Our baseline is for the Fed to hike five times, each 25 basis points, this year, and balance-sheet runoff to begin in July. Our in-house rule for the Fed’s reaction function flags an upside risk for a 50 basis-point hike in March followed by five 25 basis-point hikes in the rest of the year.” Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist

The Fed has been wracking its brains trying to figure out how to control inflation, which is at a 40-year-high, and interest rate hikes are normally the usual panacea to cool an overheated, high-inflation economy.

The US Labor Department said that its Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% from November to December, bringing producer prices to a record-high 9.7%, the biggest calendar-year increase since data was first calculated in 2010.

The same report said US consumer prices increased solidly in December, led by gains in rental accommodation and used cars, culminating in the largest annual inflation rise in 40 years. Used-vehicle inflation is mostly driven by the shortage in semiconductor chips.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Gold Price in 2022 Between Inflationary Rock and Hard Fed Hard Place / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it.

In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country.

Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Gold Plunged but Didn’t Knuckle Under to the Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The FOMC set the stage for a March interest rate hike, which was an aggressive signal. Gold got it and fell – but hasn't capitulated yet.

The Battlecruiser Hawk is moving full steam ahead! The FOMC issued yesterday (January 26, 2022) its newest statement on monetary policy in which it strengthened its hawkish stance. First of all, the Fed admitted that it would start hiking interest rates “soon”:

With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
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Commodities

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear.

What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices.

The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

My outlook for the gold market in 2022 suffers from manic depression: I see first a period of despair and an elevated mood later.

So, 2021 is over! 2022 will be better, right? Yeah, for sure! Just relax, what bad could happen?
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Commodities

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Gold; a stellar picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold’s ‘real’ price indicates a fine ‘risk vs. reward’

[edit] Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a condition, but not a timer. The miners, as of now, are on a seasonal bounce/rally. But with patience, the sector is setting up to distinguish itself as unique and quite bullish in 2022.

As today’s (Thursday’s) market activity shows, the bubble is still in force as US stock markets/sectors generally remain intact (for the most part, with some notable exceptions outside of the headliners, as certain table legs get kicked out). But gold is in a beautiful Cup & Handle structure, as I’ve shown repeatedly (ref. 2022: The Golden Year) since NFTRH began projecting the handle-making in the summer of 2020.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 22, 2022

Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it.

With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine?

Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 20, 2022

Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs. What do you think are the main price drivers prevailing for this surge on crude oil prices?

Geopolitical Situation

Crude oil prices closed yesterday near their 7-year highs, as an attack on an oil site in Abu Dhabi further strained an already tense market. The concern about the deterioration of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, which has been occurring for several days, has been overtaken by the attack on the infrastructures of the United Arab Emirates. On Monday, an attack probably committed by drones blew up three tank trucks near the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)’s reservoirs.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While the USD show is gaining applause, silver has decided to present its repertoire too. Was its rally just a magic trick or a good omen for gold?

Bond yields soared once again, just as I’ve been expecting them to for many months now. The reaction in some markets was as expected (the USD Index soared), but in some, it was perplexing. Gold moved lower a little, miners declined a bit more, and silver… rallied. Who’s faking it?

Well, perhaps nobody is. Let’s look at the yields’ movement first.

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Commodities

Monday, January 17, 2022

Gold Price Predictions for 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

PREDICTIONS FOR GOLD

There seems to be an almost fanatical obsession with ‘fortune telling’ when it comes to the financial markets. Gold is no exception.

It is worth taking a look back at some earlier predictions to help put things in perspective…

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Commodities

Friday, January 14, 2022

Gold Price Lagging Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold is lagging the raging inflation unleashed by the Fed’s epic money printing.  Despite leading inflation benchmarks skyrocketing to multi-decade highs, gold prices have barely budged.  Serious inflation initially fuels record-high stock markets, which stunt gold investment demand.  But festering inflation increasingly erodes corporate earnings, hitting stock prices.  As stock markets roll over, gold will start reflecting this inflation.

Runaway inflation is increasingly plaguing the United States, as evident in this week’s major economic releases.  The December Consumer Price Index headline number came in up 7.0% year-over-year, its hottest print since June 1982!  That’s a 39.5-year high, despite the CPI being intentionally lowballed by the government to mask inflation.  Fast-rising general prices slash standards of living, angering American voters.

This latest CPI report claimed food and shelter costs only climbed 6.3% and 4.1% over this past year.  Is that your experience?  The actual increases in grocery bills, housing, and rent costs have likely soared at triple-to-quadruple those pretend trajectories.  Leading into this latest CPI release, new research from Bank of America reported food, housing, and rent prices have blasted about 27%, 18%, and 12% higher YoY!

Shelter accounts for about a third of the CPI, which is held artificially-low through a fiction called owners’ equivalent rent.  That is just a survey asking homeowners to guess how much they’d expect to pay to rent a house of similar quality!  Most Americans who aren’t real-estate professionals wouldn’t have a clue on that.  The CPI is full of similar statistical trickery instead of using honest hard free-market data on prices.

The December Producer Price Index showing wholesale price trends looked even worse, soaring 9.7% YoY!  That was a record high in this current PPI iteration.  Far more inflation is baked into the pipeline, as an intermediate-demand PPI subindex rocketed up 24.4% YoY!  These soaring input costs are cutting into corporate earnings, and will ultimately be passed along to customers driving more price increases.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 09, 2022

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history

[edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes…

A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed

On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of Oz).

The Fed created the cyclical inflation (in NFTRH we detailed and managed the process successfully in real time) and thus the Fed created the cycle. In 2021 the Fed was exposed to the public as the agent of inflation it actually is, and when the inflation threatened to get out of hand they went into damage control mode. Now the Fed is trying to cool the inflation, which means cooling the cycle itself. You can’t have your inflated cake and eat it too. Not when the racket is exposed to the public.

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Commodities

Friday, January 07, 2022

Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

The higher price for gold over time reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar. The loss in the dollar’s purchasing power is an effect of inflation.

Over the past century, the US dollar has lost approximately ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power is reflected in a gold price that has increased one-hundred fold ($20.67 oz.  x 100 = $2067 oz).

The effect of deflation on the gold price is different. To be more accurate, the effect of deflation on gold’s price is opposite to the effect resulting from inflation.

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