Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, July 27, 2019
Gold At 6 Year High In Euros At €1,288 as ECB Says Outlook Is “Worse and Worse” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: GoldCore
Gold rose to a six and a half year high in euros at €1,288/oz yesterday prior to giving up the gains as it succumbed to profit taking in volatile trading during and after the ECB meeting.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Formulating a Trend Forecast
The long-term picture is of the Silver price being stuck in a trading range of between $21 and $14 pending a breakout higher with the current resistance at $15.25. Then resistance at $16,25, $18.50 and finally $21.
The silver price only really tends to come alive during a monetary crisis of sorts be it financial or inflation, stock market panic etc. So is there a crisis on the horizon? Well whilst Trump's china trade war is stressing the system a bit, it's not exactly reached the point yet where each side is threatening military action and trade embargo's so we are not quite there yet. Whilst many may argue that another financial crisis is brewing out there, perhaps in student and auto loans. But again we are not quite there yet hence Silver remaining in hibernation. Whilst the US economy may be slowing, it's not exactly teetering on the brink of recession yet.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Precious Metals Continue to Look Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, the important point of note was that silver had basically run out of room. It had a series of 1’s and 2’s set up for it to “melt up,” but it had to do so rather soon. Well, this past week, I would say that silver finally followed through and it took it directly to the level at which I noted on the chart was our next major resistance level. In fact, we were almost able to top tick the high of the week right at our resistance point, at which time I sent out an alert when I suspected that a pullback was imminent. Within minutes after that alert, silver began its pullback within wave iv.
The reason this is a major resistance level is that it is the 1.00 extension off the low we struck in 2018. Oftentimes, this could present us with an a-b-c corrective structure, wherein a=c. And, for this reason, I have been very cautious about silver holding over the 15.90 region. As long as it holds that support, and continues higher, it makes it less likely (but not impossible) that this rally is a corrective rally pointing us down to levels below those struck in 2018 for a final low.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Can Silver Lead Precious Metals Higher Still? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It’s not true that yesterday’s session in precious metals was uneventful. While gold and mining stocks didn’t do much, silver moved a bit above its previous high, closing at a fresh 2019 high. Sounds pretty remarkable, doesn’t it? In today’s analysis, we’ll put silver’s breakout into proper perspective and examine if the white metal has much more room to run.
Let’s dive in to the silver chart. The situation there seems to have changed - but is it really the case?
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Gold Is Your Life Insurance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold. And silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks.But if you think about it, trading metals is a really weird business.
Say you are bullish on silver and want to speculate on it, thinking it will appreciate in price. You can buy the ETF, yes, or you can buy silver miners, but the most straightforward way to invest in silver is just to buy coins or bars.
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Thursday, July 25, 2019
Silver Price Target during the Next Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It is time to explore the details of our Gold vs. Silver ratio research and to start to understand the potential for profits within this move in precious metals. The first part of our research article highlighted the Gold vs. Silver ratio and why we believe the “reversion process” that is taking place in price could be an incredible opportunity for traders.
Historically, when the Gold vs. Silver ratio reaches an extreme level, and precious metals begin to rally, a reversion within the ratio takes place, which represents a revaluation process for silver prices compared to gold prices. This typically means that the prices of Silver will accelerate to the upside as the price of gold moves higher – resulting in a decrease in the ratio level.
This reversion process related to precious metals pricing is an opportunity for traders to take advantage of an increased pricing advantage to generate profits.
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Thursday, July 25, 2019
Silver Should Pause At $16.75 Before Next Rally Starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our advanced Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that the current Silver rally may be nearing a point where the price will pause and retrace a bit before advancing further. The incredible breakout rally over the past few weeks in Silver was a real surprise for many investors. The sleepy shiny metal that everyone thought was dormant broke well above the $15.50 level on huge volume and continued to rally to levels near $16.65.
We published some incredible research regarding the longer-term potential for precious metals – specifically the potential for Silver as the Gold/Silver ratio continues to decline. Please take a minute to read this research post PART I.
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Thursday, July 25, 2019
The Third World Is Imploding: An Argument for Investment in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
In this interview with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, Jayant Bhandari presents his world view and discusses how it meshes with investment in the precious metals markets.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Jayant Bhandari, the founder of the world-renowned Capitalism and Morality seminar, and a highly sought-out advisor to institutional investors. Mr. Bhandari, welcome to the show, sir.
Jayant Bhandari: Thank you very much for having me, Maurice.
Maurice Jackson: Always glad to have you on our program, sir. We have a number of topics to address that are important for members of our audience to be aware of that may have an impact on their investment decisions. I would like to begin our discussion by addressing geopolitics in areas of the world that many investors and those in the media identify as emerging economies. But in previous interviews you've pointed out that these are not emerging economies but they're Third World economies, and they will remain Third World economies. Let's began in Latin America and go to Venezuela. What has your attention there and why?
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Thursday, July 25, 2019
Will Powell Cutting US Interest Rates Triggering Gold Price Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yesterday we wrote about Draghi, so today Powell is our hero. Only one week separates us from the pivotal FOMC meeting. What should gold investors expect?
First Fed Cut Since 2008
In a week, the Fed may deliver its first interest rate cut since 2008. Given the market odds, the move is practically a foregone conclusion. Futures traders assign a 100-percent probability of a cut. The bone of contention is the size of the reduction: there are 76.5-percent chances of a standard 25-basis point cut and 23.5-percent odds of a 50-basis point slash. As Powell did nothing to alter these expectations, the U.S. central bank now has to deliver a cut, if it does not want to upset the financial markets. However, the 50-basis point reduction sounds be a bit too much. The economy is not yet in recession, and you do not fire a bazooka as an insurance just in case!
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Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Financial Media Elite Defensively Bash “Useless” Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
At least the Financial Times now has come clean about its hostility to gold – as well as to free markets and elementary journalism.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) friend Chris Kniel of Orinda, California, sent to the newspaper's chief economic columnist, Martin Wolf, the excellent summary of gold and silver market manipulation just written by gold researcher Ronan Manly.
Wolf replied derisively and dismissively: "This is a matter of absolutely no importance whatsoever. Who cares about the prices of useless metals?"
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Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Draghi or Lagarde: A Meaningful Difference for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In November, Christine Lagarde will replace Mario Draghi as the ECB President. Will gold warm up to her more than to Draghi? It remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Super Mario will not leave his position just like that. Gold investors should be prepared for his Grand Finale.
Mario’s Grand Finale?
In June, the ECB became more dovish, as it postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020. Shortly after the central banks’ monetary policy meeting, at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech, sending even more forceful signal about the upcoming monetary accommodation. Last month, we wrote in the Gold News Monitor that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future”.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Silver Outlook Is 'Excellent' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
The silver market is on the upswing but consolidation could be in the offing, according technical analyst Clive Maund. Some weeks back we had correctly surmised that gold's gathering strength would rub off on silver and cause it to start catching up, so we bought a range of silver ETFs and stocks, a move which has paid off well as they have spiked quite dramatically in the recent past.
Starting with silver's 10-year chart, we can see that its presumed giant double bottom is starting to look more and more like the genuine article, with the price starting to advance away from the second low of the pattern.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Why The Coming Silver Rally Might Be The Greatest / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
In the last one hundred years there have been some great silver rallies. Some have been greater than others though.
The economic conditions underlying the different silver rallies were not all the same. Obviously those that occurred during conditions most conducive to silver rallies were the great performers.
The coming silver rally could be the greatest especially since it potentially has most conditions in common with the great silver rallies.
Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR)
The most ideal time for a silver rally relative to the Gold/Silver ratio is after a major peak in the GSR and as close to the all-time high as possible. This is because the Gold/Silver ratio is to silver rallies much like cycling down a hill is compared to cycling up a hill is to a cyclist.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Gold & Gold GDX Stocks Ripping. What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It was a huge week for the gold stocks. GDX gained nearly 7% while GDXJ surged over 10%.
Gold hit $1450/oz after Thursday before selling off Friday. Silver met the same fate on Friday but managed to close the week up over 6% and at a new 52-week high.
Let’s take a look at the current technicals.
Gold closed the week just below $1427/oz. If it remains above $1420-$1425, then it is likely to trend towards $1475/oz, which is the only resistance between $1425 and $1525.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
My Biggest 'Fear' For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While we were prepared for last week’s run in silver in our service on ElliottWaveTrader.net, many are only now suggesting to buy into the metals after missing the last 10%+ move up in silver. Yes, that is what happens so often in financial markets. Markets go higher and people want to buy more the higher it goes. Yet I was getting a lot of pushback when I was suggesting people use price levels below 15 to accumulate silver holdings.
What strikes me as odd is that in every other aspect of your life, you are in search of “the deal.” If you want to make any other type of purchase, you invest a lot of time in finding the best or lowest price you can find out there in the market. Yet, that is not what happens with most investors in the financial markets.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have been going over the past data to attempt to identify future price targets and to help traders understand the true potential for the current precious metals price rally. We’ve been sharing our data and research with you for many months are pleased to continue to share our predictive modeling system’s outputs and data. Today, we wanted to play a bit of “what if” with the data in an attempt to relate just how explosive this move in precious metals may be over the next 6 to 12+ months.
Given our belief that precious metals prices will hold last weeks breakout to the upside and that Gold will rally in a parabolic price mode, we have attempted to identify how Silver would react given the price advance of Gold and the historic price ratio between Gold vs. Silver.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
Anatomy of an Impulse Move in Gold and Silver Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
A big impulse move that we are currently experiencing right now in the PM complex is separated by several small consolidation patterns that make up the entire impulse leg. Its these small consolidation patterns that give life to a big impulse move because without these little rest stops along the way the impulse move would burn itself out. One should welcome and anticipate these small consolidation patterns as they will help you understand where you maybe within the impulse move. I’ve seen as few as one and as many as four buildout during a strong impulse move.
Below is a daily chart for the first two impulse moves that formed at the beginning of the HUI’s bull market run that started in 2000. The very first impulse move formed 3 small consolidation patterns, two triangles and one H&S consolation pattern which led to the first top in May of 2001. At that point it was time for the HUI to consolidate its gains and begin to buildout the much larger black triangle. After the completion of the black triangle it was time for the second major impulse move up in the HUI’s still new bull market. As you can see the second major leg up formed three more consolidation patterns before exhausting itself. The second impulse move almost doubled the first one as the new bull market was gaining strength.
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Sunday, July 21, 2019
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report joins me for a very interesting discussion on how a myriad of problems are really starting to show up in the all-too-important banking sector, explains the recent move in the precious metals and gives some very key price levels for gold and especially silver that he’s watching very closely.
Craig also addresses the recent silver underperformance to gold in recent years and what’s behind that. So, stick around for an in-depth conversation with our friend Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, silver has finally made its move! After languishing and lagging over the past several months, silver prices broke out in a big way this week.
The white metal rallied to a one-year high on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, silver is packing a hefty weekly gain of nearly a dollar or 6.3% to bring spot prices to $16.25 an ounce.
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Saturday, July 20, 2019
Sahm Unemployment Index and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession. When you lose your job, that’s a depression! Not funny? Do not worry, we won’t make more jokes. Instead, we’ll analyze a new, but very important and powerful recessionary indicator. We invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the Sahm Unemployment Index, and find out what does it say about the US economy and the gold market.
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession. When you lose your job, that’s a depression!
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Saturday, July 20, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks continue to rally on balance, after a major upside breakout extended their strong upleg. That’s driving mounting interest in this recently-forsaken sector. With the latest quarterly earnings season underway, traders will soon enjoy big fundamental updates from the gold miners. They are likely to report good Q2 results, with improving operational performances supporting further stock-price gains.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. The gold miners generally release their quarterly reports in the latter half of that window. So Q2’19’s will arrive between late July to mid-August.
After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports. They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by ever-shifting winds of sentiment. Nearly all fundamental analysis is based off the data gold miners provide in quarterlies.
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