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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Crude Oil Production Means Investment - Iran and Venezuela are Failing to Invest / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Elliot_H_Gue

Here's a challenge for you: Name the top three largest oil-producing countries in the world.

If you're like most investors, you probably know that the world's largest oil producer is Saudi Arabia. In 2005, Saudi Arabia churned out more than 11 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 13.5 percent of the world's total supply. And you may have guessed the world's second-largest producer: the Russian Federation. In 2005, Russia chipped in about 9.5 million barrels per day, a bit more than 12 percent of the total global production.

But guessing the world's third-largest producer is more of a challenge. If you guessed Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, the United Kingdom or Canada, you're incorrect. The third-largest oil producer in the world is the US. The US produced 6.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2005, edging out Iran by more than 2.75 million barrels per day.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Gold Price Manipulation - Does it Matter ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

There has been more talk in recent weeks on the subject of gold price manipulation. The purpose of this article is not to attempt to go into the details of whether or not there is manipulation, or how much there is, or who is doing it or why, because all of this is has been raked over by other writers in considerable detail. The purpose of this article is to examine what difference it makes to us as investors and traders, and how best to live with it.

The first point to make clear is that to whatever degree there is gold price manipulation/suppression, there is nothing much the ordinary investor can do about it - you are going to have to live with it, like taxation - so there's no point in losing any sleep over it.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Mania in Crude Oil, Base Metals, Tokyo Gold, Yen and China / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

The name “Einstein” is synonymous with great intelligence and genius. Albert Einstein was named Time magazine's "Man of the Century,” because he transformed humankind's understanding of nature on every scale, from the smallest to that of the cosmos. Einstein's theory of relativity is embodied in all motion throughout the universe, and the nature of energy, matter, motion, time, and space.

Unfortunately, Einstein didn't take a fancy to studying the daily motion of commodity and stock markets, where wild and erratic gyrations often seem to have no logical explanation. Why did the zinc market soar nearly 400% due to fast shrinking supplies, only to surrender a third of its gains, over the past two months? How do some copper miners defy the laws of gravity and climb to record highs, even after the price of copper has dropped by almost 50% below its all time highs?
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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

For the week, the CRB index gained 1.8% - still down just under 2% for the year. However, pay heed to the second chart below that paints a whole different picture regarding commodities.

Wheat prices fell 0.5%, the fifth decline in six weeks. However, do not be mislead, as the price of wheat was up 48% last year, reaching a 10 year high of $5.57 in October. We view this as just the beginning of a long term trend.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Oil & Energy / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Crude Oil rose to $59 a barrel based on increased demand due to cold weather finally settling in across most of the nation. In many areas the temperature was colder than normal.

Prior to this snap of cold weather, the winter season has been one of the mildest on record. OPEC also plans on cutting production, which coupled with increased demand results in higher prices.

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2007

Gold and Silver Forecast to Break Higher / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

Regular readers know last week's update was about the forces moving the precious metals markets and what we could expect to see based on how those forces were likely to interact. We particularly discussed the correlation between stocks and gold, that the stronger economy had been producing a perception of greater demand with more acute inflation expectations, both of which were bullish for the metals. We'd noted previously that this relationship could also be seen with bond yields, which also tend to move upward as stocks and metals appreciate in value. This first chart shows all three asset classes since January 3rd.

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Possibility of Breakout Failure / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

GOLDIt was looking good there for a while but then along came Friday. Why always Friday? Maybe it just seems like sharp moves occur on Friday's. Maybe speculators do not wish to hold contracts over the week-end.


LONG TERM Well, the first thing is the long term P&F chart (see chart in last week's commentary). Thursday's action broke that initial resistance at $645 with a move to $660 to provide a bullish signal. The swift reversal on Friday, however, puts that break-out in doubt. As mentioned last week I think it's best to wait for a move to $690 which would break through the next serious barrier. That would then set up a stronger move that would take us through to new bull market highs and then through the 1980 rally high of $748. After that, the 1980 all time high of $894. But let's take it one step at a time.


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Commodities

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Feb 07 - Mission Accomplished / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

It wasn't easy to present yet another update last week that anticipated additional highs in the face of an outside down week, which has a great track record of being correct. The January 28 th update stated:

“Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that's stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes. So, even though I can label a top is in, I won't do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns.”

Once again, the market had most traders convinced last week the top was in only to leave them on the sidelines or, worse, short. It's amazing the market simply won't pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 04, 2007

The USA and Saudi Arabia Combat the Axis of Oil - Iran, Russia and Venezuela / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

Crude oil is the key weapon in the battle between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, aligned with the United States, against the “Oil Axis” of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The Persian Gulf Oil kingdoms fear the emergence of a Tehran-led axis linking Iran, Iraqi Shiites, Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas in Gaza, and Islamic militants linked to al Qaeda trying to topple the Saudi royal family.

Earlier this month, Riyadh fired the first shot in the war against Iran, by knocking the price of crude oil to as low as $50 per barrel. The goal is to squeeze Iran's budget and wreck havoc on its economy, as much as possible, before the Ayatollahs can get their hands on the nuclear bomb. According to a Jan 24th report in the UK Telegraph, that indicated North Korea is helping Iran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2007

Uranium Bull Market Set to Continue During February / Commodities / Strategic News

By: James_Finch

Buyers have begun to show willingness in paying higher prices for uranium oxide (U3O8). Sellers remain confident they can get even higher prices. The recent six-week stalemate ended when Trade Tech raised the uranium spot price indicator to $75/pound in the consulting firm's month-end report.

Uranium Bull Market set to Continue During February

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Winning the Global War for Natural Resources / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Money_and_Markets

Although Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, and the war in Iraq often grab the headlines, I think the global battle for natural resources will probably define the 21st Century when it's all said and done. This war isn't fought with bullets … yet. Instead, it's fought with contracts and trade agreements as countries like China, India, Russia — and, yes, the U.S. — struggle for economic hegemony.

Here are just a few of the latest moves ...

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Caution ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Only two up days with three down days but still ending on the plus side. Gold is up against a strong resistance barrier. Will it break through? Ah! The mysteries of life.

GOLD - LONG TERM

GOLD - LONG TERM P&F Chart

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

ELLIOTT WAVE Analysis of Gold and HUI - Triangle Pattern / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dan_Stinson

Gold is in a triangle pattern and it currently appears to have started wave e down. We should see minor downside for the wave e count, before a reversal and subsequent breakout to the upside. The downside could complete as 3 waves or as 5 waves with further sideways action in wave e towards the apex of the triangle. A break below the lower trendline and the wave c low in the triangle would be short term bearish indicating further downside before a substantial move higher. A break above the wave b high before a pullback could indicate 2 possible scenarios.

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Commodities

Monday, January 29, 2007

Investment Shock and Awe - Opportunities from growing risk of world conflict / Commodities / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

5 new shockwaves, 5 big dangers and 6 opportunities

A new world war is unfolding with untold consequences for investors. But Wall Street remains largely oblivious. This war is not confined strictly to Afghanistan and Iraq. It is already spreading to Pakistan, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. Nor are its protagonists limited to the few countries regularly mentioned in news reports. To the contrary, even considering only those countries that are directly involved with troops or weapons, I count over forty — the U.S., Britain, Germany, and nearly all the members of NATO ... plus Iran, Syria, Pakistan and many other Muslim nations from Morocco to Malaysia.

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Commodities

Monday, January 29, 2007

The Real International Price of Silver / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Robert_Watson

What is the real price of an ounce of silver and just how widespread should a silver bull market be? We have watched over the last few years as the price of silver in US dollars has marched upwards from the lows of $4 to the recent highs of $15. However, the good luck of silver has been mainly laid at the door of the bad luck of US dollar. The US dollar depreciates and hence the price of silver in US dollars appreciates. Seems a simple enough equation, but surely a real bull market will stand on its own merits and not on the misfortunes of another? With that in mind, is silver worth investing in by lovers of silver from other countries across the globe?

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Commodities

Sunday, January 28, 2007

The Global Warming Resources Boom - Invest in Uranium, Gold, Silver and Diamonds / Commodities / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Seeping Giants and Untold Riches! - Look out your window and see if pigs are flying.

Why? Because the impossible is happening: Major corporations are joining forces with environmental groups in an unprecedented, unholy alliance to push for quicker action on global warming. A decade ago, if you'd placed bets on this kind of partnership emerging, you probably could have gotten 100-to-1 pay-offs in your favor.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Gold Market sectorwide Buy Alert / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Gold is looking technically stronger than it has done for the past 16 months. It would have escaped the notice of many that it broke out last week from a little-known technical pattern known as 3-arc Fan Correction. This pattern was not detected earlier because it is rather rare, and instead attempts were made to define the action in gold since last May as some kind of triangle, which could, of course, be bearish. However, a 3-arc Fan was clearly identified in the Streettracks chart last week on www.clivemaund.com, prompting a re-examination of the gold chart, whereupon it became evident that a similar pattern exists in gold. This is very important, because it largely sweeps away lingering doubts about where gold is headed. This is because these patterns are very bullish, and seldom break down.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Precious Metals Stocks update Gold, Silver : Follow the Money / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

As we mentioned last week, there are numerous factors weighing on the spot price of precious metals and this fact can make it challenging from week to week to say exactly which forces will predominate and determine the next direction the market will take. The forces include sentiment, interest rates, speculative demand, but, of course, the bottom line is money. If you can follow the money, understanding where it's moving and why, then you'll know what's driving the metals markets. The operative words over the last two weeks have been:

"In the short term, if next week's data continue to nourish the sentiment that the economy has rounded the bottom, a veritable soft landing, then metals have a realistic shot at overtaking resistance. The hotter the economy appears to become, the more willingness investors should have to get back into mining stocks and the greater the inflation concerns will become."

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Commodities

Thursday, January 25, 2007

The Cycle Turn and Trend Indicator Applied to Oils and Copper / Commodities / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

If I could only have one indicator it would be the Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator is primarily used on the intermediate-term weekly charts to tell me the current market direction and to identify intermediate-term turn points. Staying on the right side of the market really is as simple as following this indicator, which we do. The Dow theory, cyclical and statistical work is used to "look over the horizon" and to tell us what we should expect further down the road in the future. My basic philosophy is to use the Dow theory, my cyclical and statistical analysis to develop the longer-term market expectation, all the while using the very important intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator in the interim.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Silver Market Update - Breakout to follow Gold higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver.

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