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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Crude Oil rallies, but a widening Contango could lead to a collapse in oil prices during 2007 / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As crude rallies to $63, we take a look at the effects of backwardation and Contango on the commodity markets such as crude oil. Knowing and allowing for these in future price trends can make the difference between profits and losses even if you get the market right on price direction.

Crude Oil rallies, but a widening Contango could lead to a collapse in oil prices during 2007

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Commodities

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Are Arab Oil kingdoms and China Attracted to Golds Glitter? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

American political history has repeated itself again. Since World War II, whichever political party controlled the White House during mid-term Elections has lost an average of 6 Senate seats and 30 seats in the House of Representatives. On November 7th, it was the Republicans’ turn to endure a thumping, losing control of Congress to the Democrats for the first time since 1994.
 
Just a few days earlier, US Labor Apparatchniks had revised their originally reported 128,000 increase in August payrolls into a gain of 230,000 jobs, and September’s 51,000 increase was tripled to a 148,000 gain. The change for the two months combined was the biggest upward revision since July and August 2000. That sent the US jobless rate 0.2% lower to 4.4% of the workforce, a 5-year low. 
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Commodities

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Crude oil prices fell as mild weather countered OPEC's announcement that it will cut production. Crude Oil continues to build a base between 58 and 62, above the support zone of $56, in prelude to an uptrend after the sell off into October that took crude oil to technically very over sold state.

Crude Oil dips as it attempts to make a base above $56 before rallying

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Commodities

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Silver Forecast - Bullish Pennant Pattern Developing / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver recently followed the other commodities lower, such as gold and crude oil. But unlike gold, the price pattern is much more bullish, and resembles the Bullish Pennant, which is an strong and explosive bull pattern.

Silver Forecast - Bullish Pennant pattern Developing

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Crude Oil is attempting to make a base above $56 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As expected Crude Oil is attempting to make a bottom after the recent sharp decline, but the quality of the bottom making process is poor, which suggests that an ensuing rally will also be poor.

Crude Oil is attempting to make a base above $56

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Crude Oil dips below $59, When will the uptrend resume ? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite news that OPEC will cut production by 1 million barrels per day, crude fell below $59. The market also shrugged off news of the unrest in Nigeria which implies a significant shift in sentiment which in months gone past would have resulted in surge in prices. Which suggests the market is pricing in demand reduction and does not believe that OPEC will go ahead with the quota cuts.

Crude Oil dips below $59, will to still go higher ?

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

The Commodities Bull Market - Where to Next ? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The speculators long of the metals and energy are reeling from the sell off these past few months, where greed has been gradually replaced by FEAR ! Many now wonder whether the bull market has come to an end.

The Commodities Bull Market - Where to Next ?

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Commodities

Monday, September 18, 2006

What's behind the Meltdown in the Commodity markets? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Sarah_Jones

By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends

“A Trend in Motion will stay in motion, until some major outside force knocks it off its course.” After climbing to a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Jefferies Commodities (CRB) Index began to show signs of fatigue in June and July, and then stumbled into a free-fall in August and September. With the CRB index slicing below its four-year upward sloping trend-line in early September, chart watchers would probably agree that a peak in the bullish cycle has been reached. 

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Commodities

Monday, August 28, 2006

Is the 'Commodity Super Cycle' Fizzling Out? / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Gary_Dorsch

By Gary Dorsch, Editor of Global Money Trends newsletter

Since reaching a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Commodity Index, (CRB index), has been showing signs of fatigue, after a relentless four-year climb. The CRB index doubled from four years ago, led by commodity superstars, such as crude oil, copper, gold, platinum, silver, and sugar. However, since topping out three months ago, the CRB index has slumped about 9%, whipping up speculation that the 'Commodity Super Cycle' is fizzling out.  

Defending its decision to pause its two-year rate hike campaign at 5.25% on August 8th , the Federal Reserve predicted that a softer US economy would take the steam out of commodity prices. 'Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand,' the Fed said. Putting his fragile reputation on the line, Fed chief Ben Bernanke hinted at a rate pause on July 19th , despite elevated commodity prices. “The recent rise in inflation is of concern, and possible increases in the prices of oil as well as other raw materials remain a risk to the inflation outlook. On the other hand, a slowing economy should reduce inflation pressures,” he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Gold - The Correction is NOT Over ! / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After peaking at over $730, Gold corrected to 540, and the subsquent rally brought gold right to the 61.8% Fibanacii retracement which held ! This strongly suggests that gold has further downside to go, before it can resume the bullmarket.....

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Commodities

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Mid-East 'Oil Shock' Rattles Global Stock Markets, Energizes Gold / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Dorsch

Since withdrawing its troops from Southern Lebanon six years ago, Israel has carefully watched Iranian backed Hizbollah guerillas plant landmines and booby traps along their common border, and then stockpile about 12,000 katushya rockets, with ranges up to 100 km (60 miles), aimed at Israel's northern frontier. Until July 12 th , the prevailing view in Jerusalem was that Hizbollah would hold its fire, unless a wider war in the Middle East broke out over Iran's clandestine nuclear program.

However, the Middle East tinderbox was set on fire on July 12 th , when Hizbollah guerillas sneaked across the border and killed eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapped two others, which Israel's prime-minister Ehud Olmert called an “act of war”, and promised a "very painful and far-reaching" response. Hizbollah is the only Lebanese faction to retain its weapons after the 1975-90 civil-war, and is also a political party, with 14 members in the Beirut parliament and two cabinet ministers.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Peak Oil and can Saudi Arabia come to the rescue ? / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As crude oil hits ever higher, Peak Oil concerns are not new, having first been raised by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geophysicist, over 50 years ago. In a now-famous paper written in 1956, Hubbert suggested that production rates for oil (and other fossil fuels) follow a bell curve: In new fields, clean, highly pressurized oil flows abundantly to the surface, and as new wells are drilled, production rates rise steadily. After about half the oil has been extracted, however, production rates start to go down. There's still oil left, but declining pressure, exhaustion of the best oil pockets, and increasing contamination bring it to the surface ever more slowly. Applying this production model to the entire United States, taking into account the rate at which new fields were being discovered, Hubbert predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak around 1970 and then start declining. And the facts is that oil production in the USA DID peak in 1970, and has since gradually declined from some 9.5 million barrels a day, to days level of 4.6 million barrels a day.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Crude Oil Bull Market Running out of steam ? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After the Crude Oil bull market set a new high of 58, the market has corrected lower to 53. So where will crude go from here ?

Crude Oil Bull Market Running out of steam ?

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Commodities Bull Market - Trading the CRB Index / Commodities / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The current correction in the CRB index presents an potential opportunity to buy into the Commodities Bull Market, as the CRB comes off new highs of 292, now down to 282.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 01, 1970

Market Minute: Oil Prices Start to Fall / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

The recent rise in oil prices (WTI) appears to have reached a crest in late April. The outlook now is for lower levels.

Light crude oil prices made an impressive rally in March and April largely due to production cuts from Russia and OPEC. Global demand was also expected to increase, according to the EIA.

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