Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

The Next Battleground for Gold Will Be At 1550 If the Cup and Handle Formation Completes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

If and when gold breaks out of this cup and handle formation, which is a matter of probability and not certainty, the next real battleground in a new bull market will be around $1550. One of the more interesting variables will be the manner of any breakout, and the 'time' it takes to reach a minimum measuring objective.

This is quite appropriate as 1550 marks the major support level for the channel in which gold had been moving prior to the recent bear market.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Silver: The “Five Year Plan” and the Great Leap Forward / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Five years ago paper silver contracts on the COMEX hit a multi-decade high over $48 on April 29, 2011.

At the end of April 2016 the silver price is bouncing around $17, down about 65% from its April 2011 high.  The low occurred at about $13.60 in December of last year, when paper silver prices were down about 70% from their April 2011 high.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

A Gold Revaluation Could Transform Your Financial Status - Overnight / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Nick_Barisheff

David Smith writes: As we move through 2016, the Horsemen of the geopolitical, economic, and social apocalypse are on the march.

China burns through its currency reserves as billions in yuan flee the mainland for safe harbor. Japan prints mountains of yen debt in an effort to create inflation - and thereby the conscious devaluation of its citizens' purchasing power.

Saudi Arabia's gamble of cutting oil prices to the bone in an effort to break the back of the shale oil industry is becoming so costly that it may have to sell a portion of mighty Aramco to outside investors, while keeping secret the amount of its U.S. debt.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Gold Bullion vs Gold Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Nick_Barisheff

For thousands of years, gold has been used as money, a store of wealth, fought over and sought after. Over the last 45 years, Western populations have had a mixed impression of gold. A minority of the population understands that gold is a monetary asset that should be held as wealth insurance. A larger percentage of the population is confused about gold because of mainstream sources of information. Many people consider gold a risky investment when in fact gold bullion is not an investment at all, but rather money itself. Just like any fiat currency held in a vault, gold does not pay interest or dividends. Investors often look upon gold mining companies in the same light as physical gold bullion. Gold mining shares are investments, and can be good tactical investments from time to time. However, the characteristics of gold bullion and gold miners are very different. In some ways, those differences are similar to the difference between an insurance policy and shares of an insurance company.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

HUI Gold Stocks Update...Beautiful Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a two year daily chart for the HUI which I first showed you when the HUI broke above the double bottom hump to start its bull market. I call this chart the reverse symmetry chart as shown by the red arrows. How a stock comes down, especially in a strong move, will reverse symmetry back up over the same area. It's more of an art than a science. You can see the rally off of the mid January low found a little resistance at 182 before it broke through.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Why Gold Bugs Need to Stop Listening to The Fear Mongers and Start Thinking for a Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Sol_Palha

He that can have patience can have what he will. ~ Benjamin Franklin

We are still not convinced that Gold is fully out of the woods. Peter Schiff is busy telling everyone that it was a bad idea to have sold Gold in 2011, we beg to differ for the trend indicates otherwise, and so does the price of Gold. He is coming out with scary scenarios though they are not as grandiose as James Sinclair's scenario that calls for Gold to move to $50,000 an ounce. Even, when we dream we find it hard to envision such a price, so it is interesting that he can come up with such targets without being under the influence of some strong medicine.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Gold More Productive Than Cash?! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Axel_Merk

Is gold, often scoffed at as being an unproductive asset, more productive than cash? If so, what does it mean for asset allocation?

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Crude Oil: See How Elliott Waves Prepare You for Trend Changes - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

"Trend is your friend"? Yes -- but how do you know when a trend may end? Watch.

Back in February, when crude oil prices fell to $26 a barrel, you may remember a chorus of mainstream opinions suggesting that it had further to fall. Yet, oil prices shot up 60% since then.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Long Awaited Gold Price Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jim_Willie_CB

For the last year or more, not an elephant, not a gorilla, but a dragon has been found at the dinner table. Its breath has just made everybody at the table totally bald with some scorched red faces. Now all are looking at each other, wondering who will first mention the bald guys at the table. The Shanghai levers are finally functioning, starting with the Gold Fix and continuing with the RMB-based gold futures contract (which delivers gold metal oddly). The game is finally on, as in the climax chapter to the End Game. Paper gold is totally disconnected from fundamentals. The paper charade is as impressive as it is corrupt. Its enemy is physical gold and related demand. Silk Road nations have strong gold demand, which will disrupt the entire geopolitical balance of power, extending from trade and non-USDollar platforms. The West has the corner on toilet paper used in the gold market. The United States has the corner on the USDollar, used in fraud and illicit tolls.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

How The Credit Markets Will Blow Up During The Coming Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

During the previous silver bull market, interest rates and silver moved in the same direction (up). This makes sense, given the fact that silver and interest rates move together in the long run – for the last 100 years at least.

The current silver bull market (since 2001) has seen a big divergence between silver prices and interest rates. Below, is a comparison of interest rates and silver prices since 1962:

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Madness in the Crimex Gold and Silver Trading Pits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses effects of the Bank of Japan's actions on the U.S. dollar, silver and gold

The "big story" circulating around the blogosphere yesterday and last evening was a paper authored by Pimco' s "strategist" Harley Bassman that essentially opined that "the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy." Well, isn't that original? Back in 2013 I reviewed Michael Lewis' follow-up to "The Big Short," a brilliant piece of work entitled "Boomerang—Travels in the New Third World" where Lewis interviews a Deputy Finance Minister at the German Bundesbank who told Lewis that because Germany had 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, its entire government debt was "covered." At the time, I was listening to the audiobook while on a treadmill and I actually had a Eureka moment and immediately texted myself a reminder to make that the central theme of the weekend note to clients, which I did.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

CRB, Gold, Oil, Cotton, Coffee - 7 Must See Commodities Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: InvestingHaven

Commodities are in a positive cycle. It is too early to tell whether the long term bear market is over, but short and medium term momentum is clearly in favor of commodity bulls.

In this article, we revise 7 must-see charts covering the commodities complex, which reveal current and future investment opportunities.

First, the CRB commodoties index bottomed in January of this year. At that point in time, sentiment was even worse than during the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. The first chart shows how bad sentiment was in the last months of 2015 / early January 2016, see lower pane. Consequently, the upside potential is enormous as commodities are currently nowhere near positive sentiment levels.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Gold Price Target is $3,000 and Silver is $75 per Ounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jason_Hamlin

Precious metals have posted their best quarter in nearly 30 years and mining stocks are soaring from oversold multi-year lows. Those that were willing to buy when everyone else was selling have been handsomely rewarded in 2016. But we believe the gains are just getting started.

After such a huge move to start the year, many have been anticipating a sharp pullback  for gold and silver on profit taking. This would make sense, especially considering the record short positions by commercial traders. Plus, nothing goes straight up, not even deeply oversold assets awakening from a 4-year correction. It is almost always a roller coaster ride.

Monday, April 25, 2016

It’s Waayyy Too Early to Take Profits on Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

It was no fun investing in precious metals for most of 2011-2015, but the past few months have sure been a blast for buy-and-hold investors. Silver prices are 22.5% year to date, and gold isn’t far behind.

Now that there are some profits available to take, some metals investors wonder if they should grab them. The answer for most people is not yet -- not even close.

Yes, there are gains. But the real question for investors isn’t whether or not there are profits, it’s whether there are better options for their investment dollars. What other assets have a better risk/reward profile? Cash? Stocks? Bonds? No thank you!

Monday, April 25, 2016

Interesting Silver Debate: Do Old Indicators Matter Or Is Physical About To Overrun Paper? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Rubino

For as long as most gold and silver investors can remember, the paper markets — that is, banks and speculators placing bets with futures contracts — have set the price of those metals. And within the paper markets, “the commercials” — fabricators and big banks — have time-and-gain fooled speculators like hedge funds into piling in (both long and short) at exactly the wrong time.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Gold and Silver Management of Perceptions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

Gold took a $20 hit after the European close today, moving down from 1250 to 1230.

And the theme of the day seemed to be 'buy paper, don't worry' with the pushing of the SP 500 futures, even though techs kept threatening to roll over here on weak to bad earnings reports.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Gold Miners Nub is the Sweat of the Sun / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Richard_Mills

Gold miners, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe gold producing countries, ie Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. The move out of these “safe haven” countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.

In many parts of the world capitalist hating Marxist governments are becoming greedy. Many countries might come to mind as places where shareholders could, without warning, receive news that their operations have been taken over, expropriated, by the government and/or its friends, or that permits are suddenly suffering delays or have been cancelled outright.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

A Bright Future for Solar Power in the Middle East / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: STRATFOR

Forecast

• Geography and demographic challenges have made parts of the Middle East and North Africa a prime location for solar power installations.
• While solar will not supplant the role of hydrocarbons, it will enable countries such as Morocco and Jordan to improve energy security and potentially become electricity exporters.
• Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will seek to maintain their position as energy exporters, in part by adopting strategies likely to include renewables development.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Silver Commitments of Traders – Halloween is Arriving Early This Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

By that I mean, it just keeps getting scarier and scarier.

My guess is that every speculator on the planet is long silver/short gold or outright long silver.

That of course is an exaggeration but I am not exaggerating when I categorically state that the silver market is a train wreck just waiting to happen. As I have said before, and will say so again – I would rather miss any more upside in this market than get long now, not with a trade so lopsidedly jammed with speculators on the long side. I will leave that for the daredevils and others who like driving the stagecoach as close to the edge of the mountain pass road as they possibly can.