Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Will COVID Vaccine Kill Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth looks into what Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine efficacy announcement could mean for gold and silver.
Believe it or not, the big deal for precious metals this week was not the U.S. election.
It was news that Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was over 90% effective in preventing the virus, and would likely be among the first to receive FDA authorization.
Monday was massively risk-on, with the Dow soaring 4% to a new record high, ten-year treasuries yields shot up almost 17% in a single day as investors dumped bonds, and oil was ahead 8%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index gained about 60 basis points or 0.65%, while higher-beta currencies jumped.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Gold Stocks Post 2020 US Election Outlook / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
We last wrote to you roughly ten days ago.
We concluded, “It appears GDX and GDXJ will test their September lows at $37 and $52 reasonably soon. Should GDX & GDXJ break those lows to the downside, then we should get ready to buy.”
GDX and GDXJ did break their September lows but only for a day. They closed below those levels on October 29 and then gapped down the next day.
But as it stands, that gap lower figures to be the low in price for this correction.
The best sign for the sector is the technical outlook for the Dow Jones US Gold Mining Index, which is weighted heavily towards the largest handful of companies in the industry.
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Monday, November 09, 2020
Silver Price Is Trapped Below $30 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Below is a chart (source) showing a 10-year history of silver prices. The prices are adjusted for inflation…
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Monday, November 09, 2020
Will Coronavirus Second Wave Boost Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Brace yourselves, winter is coming! This is what Ned Stark in the Game of Thrones told his people to prepare them for the leaner times he saw coming. While one of the biggest threats in GOT were the White Walkers, in our reality, the pandemic is again the greatest danger. As the chart below shows, the second wave of the coronavirus infections is no longer a mere possibility – it’s happening all over the Europe and in the United States (although in the latter country, we could also say about one big wave or three waves). In particular, in France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and in the US, the number of daily new confirmed Covid-19 case per million people has soared much higher than the levels recorded in the spring. And we’ve just entered autumn, with winter yet to arrive.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
It Has Been Decided: Silver Is Going Much Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The currency markets have just announced what is coming for silver. This was explained in my previous article.
The USD/ZAR ratio has now broken down. This sets silver up to finish the year with a very strong rally:
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Thursday, November 05, 2020
Is Gold the Only US Election Winner? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The elections are behind us. However, the official results are still not definite. What does it mean for gold prices?
Ladies and Gentlemen, the new President of the United States is… still unknown! The election results are not available, as some states are still counting the votes. The race is very balanced, with few states remaining too close to call. At the moment of writing this report, Joe Biden leads the White House race with 253 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has 213 electoral votes. So, Biden is more likely to become the new POTUS . However, with those few states officially still undecided, Trump could still win. Hopefully, we will get some of the results later today, but it might even take several days to count the ballots in some locations.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2020
Gold Price Slides after US Elections, but before Results / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In Monday’s analysis , I wrote that the market situation is likely to become more specific right before, during, and perhaps shortly after the U.S. presidential elections . And by “specific”, I mean that the markets could begin moving against their previous trends.
Well, that’s precisely what we’ve witnessed so far. The overnight volatility is significant as the markets try to estimate the election outcome, with the odds keep changing quickly. Let’s start today’s market examination with the USD Index.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2020
A Golden Election Promise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold will be the biggest winner in the election.
There's no shortage of prognostications or conjecture about the U.S. election.
Of course, everyone has an opinion.
Some like red, some like blue, some like neither.
Last week's volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is a clear signal that markets are uneasy. They hate uncertainty.
If the election's outcome is less than clear, then volatility will be around for a while, and probably even intensify.
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
As China goes green, Copper market expected to tighten further / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
The most pessimistic forecasts of copper demand, and pricing, during the worst pandemic in 102 years, have failed to materialize.
From a four-year low in March, when the coronavirus slammed into Europe and North America, the red metal used widely in construction, communications, transportation and energy transmission, has mounted a serious comeback.
As of this writing spot copper is trading at $3.08 per pound, compared to around $2.10/lb in mid-March – a gain of 46%. The spot price has stayed above $3.00 since Oct. 8 – which is remarkable considering the reports of impending economic doom, amid a second wave of covid-19 infections in Europe and North America.
The following analysis by AOTH has copper showing no signs of slowing down; in fact, while the copper market was tight before the pandemic began, we expect it to tighten even further, due to a constellation of factors, starting with China.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Gold Investors Should Look at Past Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Election Day has finally arrived. Who will win, and why gold will remain the biggest winner of them all?
So, today is the day! It's Election Day. For quite some time, national polls indicate that Biden has a significant advantage . He is also polling scarcely close ahead of Donald Trump in key battleground states, but, in some states, the lead has recently narrowed. So, in many places, the race is still too close to call, making them toss-up states. Hence, although according to political pundits, polls, and bets Biden will become the next POTUS, anything could happen .
And we mean - anything. Everyone knows that back in 2016, Hillary Clinton also led in the polls. However, Trump won the election, to everyone’s surprise. Of course, the polling methodology has been improved since. But now, Biden has a much wider advantage than Hillary did in 2016, and he is much more conservative and more moderate in his approach than Clinton (historically, more moderate presidential candidates generally do better in presidential elections).
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Silver Junior Miners Reach Flag Apex Just Before US Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2. My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections. We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete. Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).
The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention. Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05 will likely be retested as metals and miners continue to attract safe-haven capital after the elections. The Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation appears to be nearly complete – a breakout or breakdown move is pending. We believe the uncertainty of the elections will prompt a possible breakout (upside) price trend in the near future.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Natural Gas Is on the Rise—And Huge Gains Could Be Lurking in This Dead Sector / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
Independent financial analyst Matt Badiali explains why he expects natural gas to rebound and discusses six potential investments.
The oil price gets all the press. The price of a barrel collapsed during the Covid-19 lock down. Companies went bankrupt in droves. Now, the industry turned to mergers to survive.
Investors fled. The sentiment turned awful. No one cares about oil anymore. The future is electric cars…peak demand is right around the corner.
Right or wrong, the oil industry is deep in a bear market. And that brings opportunity.
For example, one unintended consequence to this collapse is a major decline in natural gas production. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, we haven't seen this big a drop in natural gas production since 2008.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Gold Stocks Continue To Disappoint / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Apparently investors don’t tire of hearing the same old thing; and their advisors willingly provide the same questionable advice: “The best way to play this new bull market in gold is to buy gold stocks” or something to that effect. Are gold stocks a better choice than golditself? Let’s find out…
Four years ago, in 2016, I wrote the following:
“This year’s turnaround in gold mining shares had helped to buoy the hopes and dreams of investors who were ‘betting’ that their long, agonizing wait for euphoric, exponential gains is over. They continue to believe that the future for the Gold Mining Industry is quite rosy. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong.” (see Gold Mining Shares Are A Lousy Investment)
Just prior to that article being published, the HUI gold stock index had peaked at almost the 300 mark after tripling in price from the 100 level earlier that year in January.
The rise in share prices of gold stocks outstripped the increase in physical gold prices quite handily. Gold, itself, rose from $1070 to $1370 for a gain of twenty-eight percent. That’s nice, but not nearly so nice as the two-hundred percent gain in gold stocks.
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Gold Is the Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, says it doesn't matter if the U.S. sees a Red victory or a Blue victory in the presidential election; gold will be the real winner. In this far-ranging interview with Streetwise Reports, he discusses gold's prospects post-election, inflation, stock market performance, criteria to evaluate mining companies, and companies in U.S. Global funds.
Streetwise Reports: Frank, let's begin with gold. After a substantial rise in the price of the metal earlier this year, which went as high as $2,036 an ounce in early August, it has since been trading sideways, consolidating roughly around the $1,900 mark. What effect do you think the U.S. presidential election will have on the price of gold? Do you see different scenarios based on which candidate wins?
Frank Holmes: Well, you can hit the red button or the blue button, but I'm hitting the gold button, no matter which one it is. You have to sit back and look at macro forces and macro themes to understand gold and the drivers of gold.
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Gold and Silver Prepare For Another Price Advance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to near the November 3rd election day, Precious Metals have continued to trade within a narrow range suggesting price support is staying strong. It is my belief that potential downside risks for Gold and Silver will be relatively short-lived after the election. We believe the broad market decline witnessed on October 26, 2020, where the Dow Jones fell over 700 points, coupled with the fact Gold and Silver barely budged throughout the selloff, suggests support for Precious Metals has reached a “battle line”.
My research team has highlighted the current support and resistance price levels for both Gold and Silver on the charts below. We believe the initial support levels will hold up well throughout the pending election and that an upside breakout in both Gold and Silver are likely outcomes after the elections. Global traders and investors have already likely hedged their portfolios accordingly to attempt to eliminate risks, yet the fear of what is not known is one of the main drivers of appreciation in Precious Metals.
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Saturday, October 31, 2020
Gold Is Likely to Win This Election / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trump and Biden debated for the second and last time in this campaign. So, who will win, and why gold is likely to be the biggest winner of them all?President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden met for the second and the last debate before the elections. Thankfully, this time things were less chaotic and with far fewer interruptions and insults. Perhaps Trump has acknowledged that his aggressive behavior was a liability and decided to change his approach – especially since this was his final opportunity to alter the presidential campaign dynamics.
However, it might be too late now. According to both nation-wide and state-by-state polls, and market bets, Biden is still in a significant lead (as the chart below shows). Moreover, because of the postal voting, many votes are already locked in, as a record 47 million Americans have already cast their ballots.
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Friday, October 30, 2020
Why a Biden Win will Keep Metals Prices Rocking / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
Joe Biden’s performance in Thursday night’s presidential debate was solid. The former vice president was combative against Donald Trump and frequently had the billionaire US President on the defensive. Post-debate analysis centered around the question of whether Trump, who is behind in the polls, did enough to convince voters that taking a chance on Biden would not be in their best interests. The consensus was he had not.
At AOTH we want to know what is coming for the world economy, and just as importantly, what is in store for the metals we are invested in. If Biden wins the election, I am extremely bullish on industrial metals and precious metals, in particular gold, silver, copper, zinc, and nickel sulfides.
Why?
The Democrats winning the White House and both Houses of Congress would throw markets into a tizzy, causing investors to clamber for safe havens. Gold is the world’s oldest flight to safety and the logical response to market fear.
Installing a Democrat in the White House would also be good for gold (and silver) because of Biden’s propensity to add to the debt.
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Friday, October 30, 2020
Is Silver the Next Bitcoin? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth compares silver and bitcoin and explains why he believes investors should own both.
At the risk of offending bitcoin or silver investors, I think this is a question worth asking.
I have been researching and following these assets for some time.
In my view, it's not an either-or dilemma. You should simply own both.
I believe silver and bitcoin remain massively undervalued, and that the market fundamentals of both these assets look extremely bullish.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Silver: A Conceivable Dead-Cat-Bounce on the Cards / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver is not just any industrial metal. Used as money for centuries, much longer than the fiat currencies have been used, with its specific properties that are also widely used in many industries (best conductor of heat and electricity), with crude oil, it is perhaps one of the most versatile commodities.
As far as the white metal is concerned, on September 24 th , we have warned you about the possible temporary rebound.
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