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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 08, 2020

The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.

In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon.

At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out. 

But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal.

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Economics

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Covid-19: Major Risks as US Eyes Re-Open / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dr_David_J_Harris

SUMMARY

This article provides a quick review of the current state of the US lock-down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Major risks lie ahead in terms of re-starting the US economy without re-igniting the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus.

  • Current number of active cases is 50x the number when US lock-down started
  • Peak number of US active cases still not yet reached, and likely weeks away
  • Peak number of deaths for US in a day, observed relatively recently
  • Model projections are predicting at least 100,000 US deaths by May 31
  • Contact tracing in today’s complex society is a major problem to overcome
  • The US is now in a recession that could last at least 12 to 18 months
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Economics

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

A Tale of Two Economic Depressions / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Richard_Mills

As the coronavirus continues to hammer state and provincial economies, politicians are being forced to consider whether lockdown “cures” are worse than the disease. Pressured by the Trump administration, and in some cases the public, several US states are planning a re-opening, or partial re-opening of their economies, sometime in May. 

About half of Canadian provinces and territories are also in the midst of a re-start of some description; among those still locked down are British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland/ Labrador. 

The question weighing on the minds of both health officials and economists, is whether letting up on social distancing restrictions will cause the number of covid-19 cases to spike, thereby setting back virus containment efforts and the timeline of economic recovery. Yet regardless of what comes next, it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to see we are already in a heap of trouble. 

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Economics

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Why Americans Don't Have Any Savings / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

In response to a likely worldwide recession, governments have turned on full blast the fiscal and monetary spigots. A $2 trillion spending plan has just been approved in the USA, central banks are on a buying spree, and the $1200 stimulus payment is just helicopter money. Since the government does not have a magical tree of plenty and can only redistribute from the left pocket to the right by taxing, borrowing, or printing money, how does this make any economic sense or make any country better off? Government and Keynesian economists will tell you it’s to protect us from the coming dangers of hoarding; specifically, that banks will stop lending and just let funds sit. Keynes brought hoarding to the forefront of economics in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money; a concept that the classical economist considered to be irrelevant.

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Economics

Monday, May 04, 2020

US Q1 GDP Data Masking The True Global Economic Future? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As Q1 GDP data is released on Wednesday, April 29, which will reflect the first three months of 2020 in terms of total economic output, we believe the number will skew the current true global economic conditions to a large degree.  The pandemic shutdowns started in the US on March 15th – nearly 2 weeks before the end of Q1:2020.  Thus, we had a fairly normal Q1 in terms of economic activity, production, and consumer engagement. Everything changed after March 15th, 2020.

Skilled traders need to watch the current economic data and “week over week” data that is presented.  Skilled traders also need to pay attention to the news items that are being pushed out to the public.  Larger and larger corporations and sectors are moving towards bankruptcy or screaming for a bailout. Airlines, Hotels, Car Rental, and dozens of other sectors have all collapsed over the past 5+ weeks.  We expect real estate activity and pricing to collapse as well.  The results of the last 5+ weeks, after the March 15th shutdown started, have been anything but normal.

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Economics

Sunday, May 03, 2020

No, the Economy Isn’t Re-Opening Soon / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

 “America will be open for business very soon,” said President Trump on March 23, just a week after local authorities began issuing stay-at-home orders.

At that point, the novel coronavirus had killed a total of 689 Americans. Now, a little over a month later, 689 deaths would be a really good day. And America still isn’t open for business. But the president and some governors think it should be and are trying to make it so.

Unfortunately, politicians can’t order the economy open again because they didn’t close it. Consumers and businesses began shutting down long before they were forced to, and they won’t re-open just because they legally can.

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Economics

Thursday, April 30, 2020

The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It looks like the history books will need to be rewritten for if the noises emanating out of every nick and economic cranny are to be believed for the global economy is heading for an economic contraction WORSE than that of the Great Depression! Which will make the Financial Crisis of 2008 look like a walk in the park. And this is not from the usual perma doom merchants who like a broken clock will eventually be right.

However, even the UK governments Office for State Economic Propaganda (OBR) has warned to expect UK GDP to plunge by an unprecedented 35% in Q2!

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Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Deflationary Psychology Versus the Fed: Here’s the Likely Winner / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Weeks before the February top in the DJIA, the January Elliott Wave Theorist (Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter's monthly publication about financial markets and social trends since 1979) said:

Most economists believe the Fed can prevent financial crises and depressions. [EWI's analysts] disagree. Socionomic theory proposes that naturally fluctuating waves of social mood regulate financial optimism and the economy. They are unconscious and cannot be managed. [emphasis added]

In case you're unfamiliar with socionomic theory, socionomics is the study of how society's changes in mood motivate social actions in realms that include the economy, political preferences, financial markets, actions of peace and war, and the fads and fashions of popular culture. Robert Prechter began formulating socionomic theory in 1976.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

The Coming Impact of Coronavirus Economic Contraction in ASEAN Countries / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.

As the total number of confirmed cases may exceed 3 million and deaths will surpass 200,000 in a matter of days, the U.S. and Europe account for more than 80% % of both. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, thanks to the belated mobilizations in Europe and the US.

As I predicted in a mid-March briefing (TMT, March 23), what is about to follow is the great coronavirus contraction. Its economic impact will be comparable to the 1930s Great Depression. With more data available today, we have a better idea what’s about to happen, despite extraordinary uncertainty.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Coronavirus Burning Down the House / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: James_Quinn

Watch out you might get what you’re after

Hold tight wait till the party’s over
Hold tight We’re in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house

Talking Heads – Burning Down the House

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Bending the Inflation Curve / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Our responses to the coronavirus threat, necessary though they may be, are creating massive supply and demand shocks, the rapidity of which is like nothing seen in centuries, if ever.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing unprecedented things. Some think inflation will be the result. While that may happen eventually, I believe we will first go through the most massive deflationary shock of all time.

Milton Friedman famously said, “… inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” During the timeframe in which he and his colleague Anna Schwartz did their famous study, there was clearly a correlation between money supply and inflation. What is not often noted is that the velocity of money (i.e., the rate at which money changes hands) was stable during that time.

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Economics

Monday, April 20, 2020

COVID-19 and the Greater Recession / Depression of 2020-2021 / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Christopher_Quigley

In February2012, utilising the chart below, I published an essay courtesy of Market Oracle outlining how, based on Kondratieff wave theory, the world economy could head into a depression between 2013 and 2020. We are now entering that depression, or at least great recession, in my humble opinion. This long wave analysis was developed by Nikolai Kondratiev, a Russian economist.  He was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938.  His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. He saw recessions and depressions as normal cycles of the capitalist system due to its reliance on debt. He explained that:

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Why the Coronavirus Could Raise Wages / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

US unemployment shot higher in the last month, thanks to coronavirus closures. Some 17 million people filed new jobless benefit claims.

But it’s actually even worse.

Overwhelmed web sites and bureaucratic snafus kept many from applying. Others, while still nominally “employed,” saw their wages or hours cut. It’s terrible and will keep getting worse until the shutdowns ease and people believe they can circulate safely again.

But while the immediate outlook is dire, these events could ultimately mean higher wages for many workers. To see why, we have to think a few steps ahead.

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2020

An Alternative to the Lockdown Strategy in the Fight Against Coronavirus / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a sure-fire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 18, 2020

SILVER AND COVID-19, CAPITALISM’S BLACK SWAN / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Regarding today’s markets and gold and silver, on April 15th,  Sandeep Jaitly wrote:

COURSE OF THE EXCHANGE

♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

Metals update: backwardation or not?

Over the past few weeks and months, there have been seismic changes in the way people are thinking of markets – and the concept of markets – generally.

As evidenced by movements in the Federal Reserve’s sale and repurchase facility from last September, which has resulted in the TARP balance sheet reaching a record of $6,000bn and at a record rate of over $630bn/month since the year began, there are ‘issues’ with all markets – in as much as markets are markets with ‘monetary’ fiat.

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Economics

Saturday, April 18, 2020

If Stock Investors Crunched Economic Data Like This Their Expectations Would Change Dramatically / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

New economic data being released as earnings start to hit may alter how investors perceive the recent price recovery in the US and global markets.  Many institutional analysts began suggesting “the bottom is in” and recently began to issue stronger forward guidance.  The new data suggests we are seeing an economic contraction that, in some cases, maybe 2x or 3x the contraction that took place in the 2008-09 Credit Crisis.

The US stock markets reacted to this news and earnings data by collapsing over -2% in early trading.  Gold and Silver are both lower as we write this article which would indicate weakness across the broader market.  We continue to believe a deeper price low will set up in the near future with the US and global stock prices attempting to retest recent price lows – possibly falling below these levels.  We believe the collateral damage to consumer engagement, manufacturing, transportation, retail/leisure, real estate and other sectors of the economy is just now starting to become evident.  What the economy may look like near Mid-May is anyone’s guess.

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Economics

Thursday, April 16, 2020

Fed Caught Off Guard by Coronavirus Economic Shock. And Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Another week passed, and the number of jobless claims increased further. That was clearly not expected by the Fed, as the recent minutes shows. What does it all mean for the gold market?

Unemployment Claims Rose Further

Initial jobless claims have become one the most important data about the US economy these days. So, let’s take a look at the chart below, which offers the updated graph revealing the number of new claims for unemployment benefits.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

All of the Coronavirus Depression Economic Recovery Models Will Be Wrong Too / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

“All of the projection models were wrong. All of them,” admitted New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in an interview last week with MSNBC.

Governor Cuomo had been issuing frantic demands for tens of thousands of ventilators... that turned out not to be needed as the rate of new hospitalizations for COVID-19 infections in New York plunged with surprising speed.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Saudi Arabia Releases Ambitious Plan To Diversify Economy / Economics / Saudi Arabia

By: OilPrice_Com

On Monday, Saudi Arabia released a blueprint for the future, a plan for the Kingdom that could alter the course of its history. The “Vision for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia” could radically transform Saudi Aramco, the Saudi economy, and the country’s social structure.

The plan has been pioneered by the 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the second in line to the King, who has emerged as one of the most powerful figures in the Saudi government. Just a week ago his influence was on display; while it is difficult to know exactly what went on behind the scenes, all signs point to the Deputy Crown Prince overruling the long-standing and respected oil minister Ali al-Naimi to kill off the OPEC deal in Doha.

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2020

Global Trade: The War of the Throne / Economics / Global Economy

By: Stephen_Merrill

Now scribers, hear the tale of the mightiest battle of humankind.  It is the war over the throne of global trade.  The ongoing duel between the Rightful King and the Irresistible Force.

With the Joker in the mix now, too.

Five Millenia of Global Trade

What tamed the tribalistic human into a more civilized state long ago was the logic and obvious benefits of trade and travel.  From its very beginning, the global means-of -exchange facilitating trade was ultimately gold and its monetary stepchild silver.  Even when Western Europeans traded with China, India and many others, the primacy of gold and silver was easily adopted by both sides based on their separate tradition.

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