Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Slow Boat To China, Oil and Global Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
An article of 26 January published by Bloomberg put it this way:
Container ships can’t go any slower. Shipping lines are running out of options to stop losses as sailing speeds reach their lower limit, exhausting a solution that helped restore profitability in 2010.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
UK Recession 2012 Certain as Bank of England Prepares to Ramp Up Money Printing Presses / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Economy was thrown into reverse gear in the final quarter of 2011 by contracting by GDP 0.2%, which may not sound like much but this does send a shock wave warning through the economy that a second recession is now near certain to be declared in April 2012 as measured by 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Premature U.S. Dollar Obituaries, Mainstream Economist Lessons from Great Depression Not Learned / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
A pair of articles by Austrian economist professor Antal E. Fekete just might have one wondering who is more in the loony bin, mainstream economists like Krugman or those consistently chanting about the death of the dollar coupled with hyperinflation.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Chinese Whispers about China's Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Submissions
Jan Skoyles writes: Back in the 1980s any activity in the Chinese economy would have failed to interest anyone in the Western world. Back then they were only a seventh of the size of the US and their economic policies would have barely registered.
Since the 1980s China has seen an impressive transition from an emerging to an almost fully emerged economy. In just one generation’s time the Chinese economy will grow to $123 trillion – three times more than the entire world output of the year 2000. Robert Fogel predicts that by 2040 the Chinese economy will dwarf that of the US by growing to 3 times its size.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
The GDP Growth Deception, Central Bank Manipulated Fake Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
As 2012 begins, investors need to know the true health of the US economy. A major barometer is the Gross Domestic Product figure. The US economy generates nearly $14.5 trillion dollars annually in Gross Domestic Product or GDP. This is a measure of economic output. When GDP is expanding, we feel good about the economy, our jobs, and our investments. When GDP is contracting, we feel bad about the economy, our jobs, and our investments. Therefore, it is imperative for central bankers and political regimes to foster ever expanding GDP numbers. A happy populace is less likely to revolt and demand new leadership. In our modern information age, everyone knows about the current GDP number. Expansion is good and the economy is growing. Contraction is bad and the economy is in a recession. Thank goodness the GDP number can be rather malleable. And, like everything else in the new era, it can be faked.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Debt End Game, Europe Staring into the Abyss, and Very Negative Unintended Consequences / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Europe's leaders are committed to keeping both the euro and the eurozone as it is. But for it to do so, everything must change, as the wonderful quote from the 1958 Italian novel suggests. This is no easy task, as no one wants a change that will impact them negatively; and there is no change that will allow things to stay the same that does not impact all severely, as we will see. In the third part of a continuing series, we look at the actual options that are available on the menu of choices, or as one group called it, the menu of pain. I offer some guideposts that we should watch for along the way, and end by offering a suggestion as to what Europe should do. As has been the case in this series, I do my best to offend everyone at some point. If by some small, unintended oversight I do not, then wait another week, I will get to you. What else are friends for?
Friday, January 20, 2012
Southern Europe Permanently Crippled, The Only Tool Left is Hyper Inflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Any perusal around the world these days features Southern Europe crippled, preparing for the inevitable Greek Govt Bond default. It features a crippled US housing market, a mockery of statistical accounting in the US Gross Domestic Product, the plight of the COMEX with established veterans clearing out desks (not trading), the extreme physical demand reported by the London Trader, and the indictment of the SLV iTrust Silver Fund tool used by the cartel. The survey does not look favorable toward stability. The banking, economic, and political leaders have not pursued reform and remedy in any remote sense.
Friday, January 20, 2012
The U.S. Economic Recovery Is Producing Surprises / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
In 2008 it was a sure thing the bursting of the real estate bubble, the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market, the freeze-up of the banking system, the ravages of the ‘Great Recession’, collapse of the auto industry, bailout of mortgage- insurance giant AIG, bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler, etc., would wind up with the economy in the next Great Depression.It was then a sure thing that the massive stimulus and bailout efforts would not work, and the costs would bankrupt the country and drop it into third-world economy status.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 20, 2012
The World Economy Stalls; Meanwhile Dubai Bounces Back: So what’s The Secret? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andrew_Butter
One of the few interesting things about Dubai is that it serves as a barometer for economic activity that happens largely outside of government and outside of OEDC.
I’m not talking blood diamonds or drug money, Dubai services a region that extends thousands of miles in all directions and the only thing that happens there that doesn’t happen elsewhere and is “illegal” in many of the places it services, is economic freedom. What’s interesting is that you can measure the pulse the global free-market by measuring the pulse of Dubai.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 20, 2012
Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims and Housing Starts All Favourable Aspects / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December, after posting a similar reading in November. The energy price index inched down 1.3% in December, marking the third consecutive decline. The recent increase in oil prices should be reflected in the January CPI report. The food price index increased 0.2% in December putting the year-to-year gain at 4.7% vs. 1.5% in all of 2010. The energy price index moved up 6.6% in 2011 compared with a 7.7% jump in 2010. The 3.0% increase in the overall CPI in 2011 reflects these gains as well as an acceleration of the core CPI, which excludes food and energy.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Fed’s Beige Book Paints a Rosier U.S. Economic Picture as Employment Improves / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, January 11th. In it, U.S. central bank officials included in the survey indicated that U.S. economic conditions in their respective regions seemed to have improved somewhat in December of 2011 compared with conditions observed the previous month.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Economic Reports Underscore More Positives of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Today’s economic reports present a bullish picture of the U.S economy. Industrial production in December was strong and optimism of homebuilders improved in January, while wholesale prices fell.
Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% during November. The 0.9% jump in factory production, which accounts for the bulk of total industrial production, stands out in today’s report after a 0.4% drop in November. Factory production rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in the fourth quarter vs. a 5.00% increase in third quarter that represents a rebound from the Japan disaster. Production of factory goods was widespread in December with wood products, primary metals, computers, machinery, motor vehicles, and aerospace equipment posting noticeable gains.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 19, 2012
UK Inflation Mega-trend Second Anniversary Despite Continuing Delusional Deflation Propaganda / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation ended 2011 at 4.2% (December) coming down sharply from a peak of 5.2% (September) that despite the mainstream presses continuing academic backed falling inflation / deflation risk warnings remains at more than DOUBLE the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank whose primary remit is supposedly price stability. CPI 3% was supposed to have been the maximum level a break above which was supposed to trigger a series of panic measures to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to print money that to date officially totals £275 billion of electronic money printing that the fractional reserve banking system will eventually leverage to over £1 trillion for the primary objective for the monetization of government debt as warned of now 2 years ago in the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook (Free Download).
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
World Bank Global Economy Warning: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Jesse
In case your domestic financial press fails to deliver this important message to you so clearly, as the World Bank has done for the rest of the world's leadership.
Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.
Equities are pricing in a rosy scenario, but the bonds and precious metals are saying 'beware.'
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
India Economy 2012: What to Expect / Economics / India
By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous
The political situation in India remains murky, and elections will be held in key states early this year. Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven phases, which will unfold during most of February. Punjab, a significantly smaller state in terms of population, will also hold elections in January and March.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
China Economic Growth Far From Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, spoke to Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle about the Chinese economy and crisis in Europe.
O'Neill said that China's continued growth is "the most important thing in the world." On potential Greek default, he said that "China creates the equivalent of another new Greek economy every four months" and "Greece itself is not that important."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
The Asian Coal Fired Economic Locomotive / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Andrew_McKillop
What If Its Thanksgiving But You Are The Turkey?
HOPING FOR GROWTH
Called the only rational strategy, but impossible in the current context, restoring economic growth in the debt-strapped OECD countries remains a religious-type hope for political and corporate leaders.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Expect a Global Economic Recession 2012 / Economics / Recession 2012
By: John_Mauldin
The "Quarterly Review and Outlook" from Hoisington Investment Management is one of the most significant pieces that crosses my desk – I try and drop everything else as soon as possible. This quarter's is no exception. The authors, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, get right down to brass tacks with their opening sentence: "As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio stands near 100%." They cite an influential 2010 historical study of high-debt-level economies around the world, by Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, that concluded that when a country's gross government debt rises above 90% of GDP, "median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more."
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).
Monday, January 16, 2012
Economic Crisis and the Theory of the Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jesus Huerta de Soto writes: The three years that have passed since the world financial crisis and subsequent economic recession hit have provided Austrian economists with a golden opportunity to popularize their theory of the economic cycle and their dynamic analysis of social conditions. In my own case, I could never have imagined at the beginning of 1998, when the first edition of my book Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles appeared, that 12 years later, due undoubtedly to a financial crisis and economic recession unparalleled in the world since the Great Depression of 1929, a crisis and recession which no other economic paradigm managed to predict and adequately explain, my book would be translated into 14 languages and published (so far) in nine countries and several editions (two in the United States and four in Spain).