Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. Economy Flatlining, Biderman on the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Jesse
I spend a great deal of time looking at the various government reports, and especially the Payrolls report as you know. I keep my own spreadsheets with their data, and measure various changes in the way in which they calculate the seasonal adjustment factors, imaginary jobs, and prior revisions.
If I wish to leave you with one takeway, it is that the current use of the monthly headline number is more of a Sales and PR program for Wall Street and the government, and hardly the product of serious and thoughtful analysis of statistical data.
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. ISM Economic Data Cracks Beneath The Surface / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been discussed though is the ISM data for January.
ISM is broken into two components, services and manufacturing. Interesting that services represents a larger portion of the economy yet is given less emphasis. But that is neither here nor there. Both reports came in stronger than expected with services at a 10 month high while both continue to remain above the 50 level which defines expansion (above) and contraction (below).
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops, Should You Sell Gold? / Economics / Employment
By: Eric_McWhinnie
On Friday, the U.S. jobless rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009. According to the Labor Department, the economy added 243,000 jobs. Furthermore, today’s report includes revisions adding a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December. The Labor Department also revised December’s gains to 203,000, from an initially reported 200,000.
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Sunday, February 05, 2012
Putting Good U.S. Employment Numbers in Perspective, College Education Isn’t Enough / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Everyone knows by now that the US is facing difficult choices. Depending on what assumptions you use, the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are between $50 and $80 trillion and rising. It really doesn't matter, as there is no way that much money can be found, given the current system, even under the best of assumptions. Things not only must change, they will change. Either we will make the difficult choices or those changes will be forced by the market. And the longer we put off the difficult choices, the more painful the consequences.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
U.S. January Employment Situation Shows Widespread Improvement, but Short of Full Employment Mandate / Economics / Employment
By: Capital3X
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.3% in January, down from 8.5% in December. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% registered in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +243,000 jobs in January vs. +203,000 in December. Private sector jobs increased 257,000 after a gain of 220,000 in December. A net gain of 60,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of November and December
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Friday, February 03, 2012
U.S. Jobs, El-Erian U.S. Structural Issues Aren't Being Dealt With / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
PIMCO CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu, Scarlet Fu and Dominic Chu this morning about today's jobs report and the global economy.
On jobs, El-Erian said that "let's not also forget the numbers outside these headlines...we should not lose sight that we have structural issues that are not being dealt with."
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Friday, February 03, 2012
What Every U.S. Investor Should Know About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Tony_Caldaro
The Department of Labor publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) every month to monitor the inflation rate in the US. The chart below displays the annual rate of change, month to month, of the CPI in the Greenspan/Bernanke era. As you can observe it has averaged about 2.5%.
Friday, February 03, 2012
Real U.S. Economic Picture: "There is No Recovery" / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
If you have any money and you want to understand the lies that “your” government tells you with statistics, subscribe to John Williams shadowstats.com.
John Williams is the best and utterly truthful statistician that we the people have.
The charts below come from John Williams Hyperinflation Report, January 25, 2012. The commentary is supplied by me.
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Thursday, February 02, 2012
Godzilla Will Come Out of Tokyo Bay Before Japan Economy and Stock Market Rebounds / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
Let's talk Japan.
Every year some analyst comes out with a variation of the story that Japan is about to rebound.
Usually the argument goes something like this: Japanese markets are impossibly cheap and the central bank will be there to prevent a catastrophe.
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Thursday, February 02, 2012
The American Economy is "Dead": The Illusion of Economic Recovery / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Last Friday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced its advance estimate that in the last quarter of 2011 the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in real inflation-adjusted terms, an increase from the annual rate of growth in the third quarter.
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Are You Ready for Some Super Bowl Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Eric_McWhinnie
January was an impressive month for the markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.4 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 4.4 percent. It was the biggest monthly gain for the major indexes since 1997. However, the real star performances in January came from gold and silver. Gold finished January at $1,737.80 per ounce, representing a remarkable 11 percent gain for the month. It was the largest monthly gain since last August, and the best start to a new year since 1980. Silver, which benefits from a safe-haven and industrial component, surged 19 percent in January, representing its largest monthly rally in nine months.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Inflation is Part of the Plan / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Forget about lost decades. Forecasts that we'll be turning Japanese couldn't be further from the truth.
Here's why.
It's simple, really. Deflation is not in the interest of anybody in power, so it's very unlikely to happen.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Solution to America's Economic Gridlock Crisis / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
How do we resolve the current political gridlock over healthcare, the economy, and a myriad of other problems? It is clear that there are no easy solutions, and putting off making choices will just make the ultimate cost we pay that much more expensive.
This week for our Outside the Box we deal with just this question, in a piece from a master of logic and reasoning and one of my favorite writers. I absorb everything I can get my hands on from Dr. Woody Brock. He has written a new book, called American Gridlock: Why the Left and Right are Both Wrong" ( www.amazon.com/gridlock). I am doing something very unusual and giving him two back-to-back editions of Outside the Box, this week and next, to outline his own book in his own words. He generously agreed to do so, as he (and I) are passionate about the topic of getting to a solution. If we do not solve this crisis in the making, it will impair our future generations for a long time, not to mention its effects on our own lives.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Heart of China Economic Bull Beats Strong, Stock Market Buying Opportunity / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
My debate last week with Gordon Chang on China's future at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference was a stimulating, intellectual exercise. A healthy market needs a compromise between the bid and ask, and a discussion between people who strongly disagree is a great way to promote critical thinking.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
U.S. Real Consumer Spending Falls in December / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending slipped 0.1% in December after postings in October and November. All major components – durable goods (-0.1%), nondurables (-0.1%) and services (-0.1%) – fell in December and trimmed the pace of consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Is World Trade Falling Like A Lead Balloon Minus Terminal Velocity? Alarming Collapse of Baltic Dry Index / Economics / Recession 2012
By: BATR
Significance of BDI
Is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) one of the most significant leading economic indicators to follow when the media is telling us the global economy is looking great one week and then predicting a double dip recession the next? We are increasingly concerned about the substantial decline in global shipping’s Baltic Dry Index. Is this a significant canary in the mine shaft in regard to what lies ahead for world trade dynamics, global aggregate demand and trans-national economic and financial activity?
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
U.S. Economy Q4 2011 GDP Trouble Below The Surface / Economics / US Dollar
By: Tony_Pallotta
The release of Q4 2011 GDP highlighted just how close the US economy is to actual contraction as well as how vulnerable it is to the events in Europe. On the surface the 2.8% growth was a nice rebound from the 1.8% growth in Q3 2011.
But like anything if you dig beneath the headline you will see three areas of concern. Interesting that just two days before this release when asked about the recent uptick in economic activity Chairman Bernanke was less optimistic than the reporter asking the question. Apparently he was privy to the soon to be released data.
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Saturday, January 28, 2012
U.S. Economy Waist Deep in the Big Muddy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke has instead laid out a simple road map for economists and investors to follow. The signposts are easily understood: the Fed will stop at nothing in pursuing its goals of creating phantom GDP growth, holding down unemployment, propping up stock and housing prices, and monetizing government debt. To do so, it will continue to pursue a policy of negative interest rates, while ignoring the collateral damage of unsustainable debt, virulent inflation, misallocated resources and credit, suffering yield-dependent retirees, and a devalued U.S. currency.
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Friday, January 27, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP on Recession Track / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Mike_Shedlock
The headline real GDP number of 2.8% does not sound too bad until you dig beneath the surface. A full 1.9 percentages points of that 2.8% was inventory replenishment. Real GDP vs. a year ago is +1.6% and that is on a recession track as well.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Is the United States in a Liquidity Trap? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
If nothing else, we've learned that the liquidity trap is neither a figment of our imaginations nor something that only happens in Japan; it's a very real threat, and if and when it ends we should nonetheless be guarding against its return — which means that there's a very strong case both for a higher inflation target, and for aggressive policy when unemployment is high at low inflation.