Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
U.S. March Small Business Survey is Disappointing, Trade Gap Temporary Narrowing / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.6 points to 91.9 from 94.5 in March. The details of the survey are disappointing following an encouraging March employment report of the nation. The composite index registered the second monthly decline in six months.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Is Compounding Debt Mankind’s Kryptonite? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Submissions
SilverDoctors writes: Throughout history, mankind has struggled to end the boom/bust economic cycle, and usher in a new age of economic prosperity. The middle ages saw monarchy/ feudal/ serf systems. Marx and Lenin believed economic prosperity could be achieved through socialism or communism- complete sharing of economic wealth and resources. The modern Western world-influenced by the likes of Adam Smith, Keynes, and Friedman, has tried to achieve this through capitalism- the private ownership of goods with the incentive for personal profit. The Chinese have developed a modern hybrid of capitalism and communism. Hard money advocates believe fiat currency is the issue, and a return to sound money such as gold and silver will finally usher in the era of economic prosperity.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Inflation Expectations and The Transmission Mechanism / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
TWO roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim, Because it was grassy and wanted wear; Though as for that the passing there Had worn them really about the same, And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I -- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. - Robert Frost
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Why Do People Hate John Maynard Keynes? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Whitney
Anyone who spends time on the economics blogs knows that Keynes is blamed for everything from the Wall Street bailouts to quantitative easing. But, why? There's nothing in Keynes "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" that suggests that he would have supported the bailouts or QE2. Yes, he would have made sure the financial system didn't collapse, but that doesn't mean he would have issued blank checks to insolvent financial institutions run by crooked bankers.
Saturday, April 09, 2011
America's Inflationary Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
We see signs that American workers are getting worn out. Management may have squeezed the last drops of extra work that they can out of them. That has been reflected in the latest worker productivity. Since WWII the average increase has been 2-1/2% year after year, but last week’s numbers were terrible, up only 0.2% per year. Europe and the US have been able in part to offset advantages of foreign producers by consistently getting better productivity results. For those of you that are new to these statistics, they are a reflection of labor productivity, or advances in the way work is done. Such previous success have allowed companies to get the job done with fewer employees and in instances to offshore some work to take advantage of cheap foreign labor. If you use a combination of labor and investment funds, recent results are only up 0.1% for 2009. Those numbers are usually about half of regular productivity numbers. What low overall numbers mean is that throwing money at manufacturing problems is not working as well as it has in the past.
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Saturday, April 09, 2011
Near-term Economic Outlook For A Troubled World / Economics / Global Economy
By: Victoria_Marklew
An article by Victoria Marklew, Richard Thies and James A. Pressler
Although 2011 is only three months old, the world has changed dramatically. Along with the evolving European debt crisis, seemingly -isolated Tunisian protests grew to varying levels of upheaval throughout the Arab world, and an historic earthquake and subsequent tsunami have left Japan's outlook under a cloud of uncertainty. Each of these situations is significant in its scope and magnitude, but by focusing on just the key elements, the main risks can be appreciated.
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Saturday, April 09, 2011
Economists Shocked By Are We Really Losing Jobs to China! / Economics / Employment
By: Ian_Fletcher
There’s a nice new academic paper just out by an MIT economist and his friends that gives some hard data to back up everyone’s suspicion that the U.S. is losing jobs to China. It’s entitled “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” by David Autor, and you can download it here if you’re curious.
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Saturday, April 09, 2011
U.S. Consumer Price Index, Medical Care Costs, and the Paul Ryan Medicare Proposal / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Historical trends of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the medical care components in the CPI are useful to assess some aspects of the Medicare proposal in the Paul Ryan budget. In the past 20 years, the medical care component of CPI has consistently risen faster than the CPI, with the exception of 2008 (see Chart 1).
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Friday, April 08, 2011
The Free Trade Theory That’s Killing America’s Economy, Why It’s Wrong / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
I wrote in a previous article how America’s disastrous embrace of free trade is ultimately based on a false theory of how the global economy works: the so-called Theory of Comparative Advantage. This is what economists, from the government on down, believe in. This matters.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 08, 2011
U.S. Jobless Downtrend Remains in Place / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 382,000 during the week ended April 2, which puts the 4-week moving average at 389,500. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless fell 9,000 to 3.723 million. The good news is that the downward trend of jobless claims is maintained. The number of claimants under the special programs fell for the week ended March 19 declined roughly 90,000. Going forward a larger drop would be necessary to be consistent with the strength seen in private sector payrolls in February and March.
Thursday, April 07, 2011
U.S. Colombia Trade Deal to Strengthen Economic Ties with Latin America / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: The United States has resolved labor issues with Colombia, paving the way for approval of a stalled free-trade agreement (FTA) and strengthening economic ties between the countries.
The United States and Colombia were expected to announce the agreement this week after months of talks, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday.
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Thursday, April 07, 2011
U.S. Economic Depression Statistics / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Economic Collapse writes: If you know someone that believes that the U.S. economy is in great shape, just show that person the following statistics. But please don't show these statistics to anyone that is feeling depressed or that has just lost a job – it might push such a person over the edge. The sad truth is that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a long-term decline and it is coming apart at the seams. Right now the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are attempting to "paper over" our economic problems with massive amounts of government debt and paper currency, but in the end it is not going to work. When you analyze the numbers objectively, it leads to the inescapable conclusion that we are headed for another Great Depression. That is a very depressing thought, but there is no denying that decades of debt and incredibly bad decisions are starting to catch up with us. The economic pain that is coming is going to be absolutely mind blowing.
Thursday, April 07, 2011
The Free Trade Theory of Comparative Advantage / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
You can read about the free trade controversy for months and never hear about it. But in the minds of real economists, it’s there all the time, and it’s big. I’m talking about the so-called theory of comparative advantage, the theoretical lynchpin—in the view of free traders and protectionists alike—of the case for free trade. It has an unfortunate reputation for being too technically tricky for non-economists to understand, but I think this is a shame, because this myth tends to shut ordinary concerned citizens out of the debate. Therefore, I’d like to take a shot at explaining this theory.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 07, 2011
U.S. Federal Budget, a Rerun of 1994-95 Episode or More? / Economics / Government Spending
By: Asha_Bangalore
The continuing resolution, a temporary arrangement that is currently financing the operations of the federal government, expires on April 8, 2011. A federal government shutdown follows if Congress fails to authorize appropriations prior to this date. It is widely expected that a breakthrough in budget talks will take place prior to the deadline. However, there is uncertainty about whether a compromise will be reached at the appropriate time. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
Deflationists Blind to the Inflation Storm / Economics / Inflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
My forecast has been for a powerful Inflationary Recession to occur, a consistently laid out analysis, delivered during the last year or more in clear terms. That has been my call, and continues to be my call. The Deflationist camp is making more noises. They do not know their limitations, which are obstructed by a blind eye toward the monetary inflation. They do not understand it, so they ignore it, and attempt to encapsulate it into a convenient bottle set aside on the margin. Gonzalo Lira will be proved wrong about price inflation showing on the official Consumer Price Inflation index. So what? The prevailing price inflation will ramp past 12% easily as he also predicts. His style is wonderful, even if a mirror is a fixture at his desk. His details in argument are strong and cogent. An anger meter is a fixture at my desk.
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
When Iceland Totally Froze / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: David_Howden
Following the bankruptcy of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers in late 2008, credit markets all over the world seized up in a striking manifestation of the interconnectivity of the global economy. When the dust had settled, the crisis had wiped out trillions of dollars of investments, and the previously well-functioning credit markets had stalled. The most spectacular bankruptcy of the 2008 financial crisis was the collapse of Iceland's financial system. This collapse is especially intriguing as Iceland is not an underdeveloped country (it ranked third in the United Nations' 2009 Human Development Index).
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Does a Weak U.S. Dollar Cause Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
Should investors be concerned that a weaker U.S. dollar causes inflation? The price at the gas pump should be a stark reminder that a weaker dollar may contribute to higher prices. Yet, economists tell us that food and energy inflation does not count. Why do economists have such a baffling sense of logic? Are economists really aliens in disguise, locked up in ivory towers? Let’s shed some light on the logic and why it may not merely be strange, but wrong.
Monday, April 04, 2011
Fed Core Inflation Incompetence / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
For years the Federal Reserve has told us that in order to detect inflation in the economy it is important to separate "signal from noise" by focusing on "core" inflation statistics, which exclude changes in food and energy prices. Because food and energy figure so prominently into consumer spending, this maneuver is not without controversy. But the Fed counters the criticism by pointing to the apparent volatility of the broader "headline" inflation figure, which includes food and energy. The Fed tells us that the danger lies in making a monetary policy mistake based on unreliable statistics. Being more stable (they tell us), the core is their preferred guide. Sounds reasonable...but it isn't.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
Is Inflation Harmless or Even Good? / Economics / Inflation
By: Robert_Murphy
As Ron Paul's "End the Fed" movement grows, more and more Fed economists are speaking up on behalf of the central bank. In a recent post, David Andolfatto of the St. Louis Fed argues that the systematic debasement of the currency has had a negligible effect on the average American. As we'll see, Andolfatto's evidence is completely irrelevant to the question. The Fed and commercial banks have been ripping off everyone who uses dollars.
Saturday, April 02, 2011
Jobless Economic Recovery, Drowning in Debt, Austerity Suffering Working Class / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: John_Mauldin
- Can You Say Jobless Recovery?
- Drowning in Debt but Getting No Growth
- The Cancer of Debt
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the Muddle Through Middle with you! –With thanks to Stealers Wheel