Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Hyperinflation is Most Likely to Strike Amidst Real Deflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Adrian_Ash
Hyperinflation is not simply inflation times 10. It's most likely to strike – in fact – amidst a real deflation...
SO the FEDERAL RESERVE's second-round of quantitative easing, announced on November 3rd, was a shoo-in – a fait accompli – already decided when the policy team first sat down the previous day.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010
QE2 and The Great Economic Misdiagnosis, Insolvency Not Illiquidity / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The backdrop has turned dire on several front simultaneously. The great millstone around the USEconomy's neck continues to drag it down. CoreLogic reported 2.1 million units have created a swamp in Shadow inventory of the housing market. That equates to 23 months inventory, whereas normal is 7 months. They tallied the growing tumor of bank owned properties as a result of home foreclosures, also called the REOs (real estate owned). Look for no housing market recovery for at least another two years. Starting in summer 2007, the Jackass forecast each year has been for another two years of housing market declines, all correct. Ireland might be squarely in the news, but the big enchalada is Spain. The Irish banks have presented a grand headache for the European banks, with a $150 billion exposure. Ironically, Ireland has done more to reduce its budget spending effectively than any EU member nation, yet is left to twist in the soft rain. They cut their government budget by 20%.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Raising Taxes Is Not Reducing Government Spending / Economics / Economic Theory
By: George_Reisman
Sunday's New York Times carries an article titled "The Blur Between Spending and Taxes." The author is Harvard Professor N. Gregory Mankiw.[1] The essential theme of the article is that the government is spending when it decides to forgo tax revenue that it otherwise could have collected. Indeed, tax revenues forgone in the enactment of tax deductions, such as for interest payments on home mortgages or charitable contributions, and tax credits, such as for first-time homebuyers or adoptions, are now commonly described as "Tax Expenditures." The thought is that the government is spending money in deciding not to take it in taxes and to allow the taxpayers to keep it.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Mounting Unemployment in America: Poverty and "Social Explosion" / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
The social net has become a bit more frayed. Soon extended unemployment benefits will cease and 2 million Americans will have to dip into their savings, if they have any. This is an outgrowth of the effects of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing. We have lost 8.5 million jobs over the last ten years to this destructive process. We have seen more than 42,000 manufacturing plants leave the country as well.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
New Estimate Indicates Real U.S. GDP Grew Faster in Q3 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter, which is higher than the advance estimate of a 2.0% increase. Upward revisions of consumer spending, equipment and software spending, exports, government spending, and smaller decline in residential investment expenditures more than offset the decline in structural investment expenditures, previously reported to have added to GDP, to result in a higher rate of growth.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Fed’s Bearish Outlook Justifies QE2 / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The minutes of the November 2-3 FOMC meeting include forecasts about real GDP, inflation, and employment from members of the FOMC. The main conclusion from the new forecast is that the Fed is less sanguine about the pace of economic activity in the final three months of 2010 and 2011 compared with the previous forecast (see table below). The downward revision of growth and an upward revision of employment entirely justifies the announcement of the second round of quantitative easing of $600 billion.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Bernanke vs. Keynes / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Whitney
Investment drives the economy. It creates jobs, builds factories, develops technology, and stimulates growth. When investment falls, spending slows, unemployment rises, and the economy languishes in persistent stagnation.
Monday, November 22, 2010
After Reflation Comes Hyper-Deflation, a Different Kind of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
There’s a wealth of wisdom to be found in ancient Chinese proverbs. Not uncommonly one can find answers to the most complex problems today by reading the simple yet elegant epigrams found in any collection of ancient sayings.
One of the themes that runs like a thread in any book of Chinese proverbs is the honor the Chinese confer to the elderly. One such proverb advises anyone who is considering a new venture to “consult at least there older people before proceeding, then you will succeed.” Another one puts it much more succinctly: “The elderly: a national treasure.”
Monday, November 22, 2010
Mike Shedlock's Vacuous Deflation Market Calls Busted / Economics / Deflation
By: Robert_Murphy
Over the last two years, I have gotten perhaps dozens of requests to "deal with" the deflationist approach of Mike "Mish" Shedlock. On his popular financial blog, Mish has been repeatedly patting himself on the back for correctly calling all the major trends in contrast to those economists (like Gary North and I) who naively think Bernanke has the power to raise prices if he so chooses.
Monday, November 22, 2010
U.S. Unemployment to Remain High Through 2011 and Beyond / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
Stocks are up nearly 70% from their bear market lows. Corporate profits are rising. And the economy is expanding. Yet the unemployment rate continues to hover around 10%.
Neither President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has generated enough good news to convince companies to hire meaningful numbers of new workers.
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Monday, November 22, 2010
Ireland Bailout Consequences for Britain, Portugal Next? Stock Market Correction Over? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ireland's Government drops the mantra of no bailout by finally coming clean to the Irish public that a multi-billion Euro bailout has been agreed ahead of markets opening on Monday. Many Irish citizens will be angry that they have been repeatedly lied to as a series of senior government politician's have stepped forward these past few weeks to make announcements that Ireland was not seeking a bailout when the facts where the complete opposite as an accelerating bank run was under way on Irish banks, with depositors having already pulled out an estimated Euro 25 billion.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Are We Living in the Federal Reserve's QE2 Twilight Zone? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Trader_Mark
On Monday, an old friend sent me a link to a now virally famous cartoon clip via YouTube. The clip is a depiction of the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing in a simplified, humorous manner and has been viewed over 1.6 million times, not to mention it had a front and center showing on CNBC.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Fed's Hidden Agenda of Driving U.S. Into a Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Washingtons_Blog
Ben Bernanke has said that the Fed is trying to promote inflation, increase lending, reduce unemployment, and stimulate the economy.
However, the Fed has arguably - to some extent - been working against all of these goals.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Quantitative Easing QE2 and the Looming Threat of a Crippling Debt Service / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
The deficit hawks are circling, hovering over QE2, calling it just another inflationary bank bailout. But unlike QE1, QE2 is not about saving the banks. It’s about funding the federal deficit without increasing the interest tab, something that may be necessary in this gridlocked political climate just to keep the government functioning.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Global Financial System Crisis, Collapse in Consumer Spending, Unemployment, Rising Prices / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
We hear stories about oil and about how it will probably move higher, perhaps to $150.00 a barrel and perhaps higher. This is the first time in more than three years that it has moved to lofty levels. The net speculative long position is more than 200,000 contracts, or about 35% higher than in 2007. Some economies are doing well, particularly in Asia and in Latin America, but not enough to create such higher prices. $60.00 a barrel would more nearly meet demand.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
The Sputtering U.S. Economy, Deflation Exactly Where is it? / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
The Sputtering Economy
Old and Outmoded
We Have Deflation Exactly Where?
O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting?
The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed's move to QE2. We have to get ahead of this deflation thing, don't we? Well, maybe, depending on how you measure inflation/deflation. This week we look deep into the BLS website on inflation to see just exactly what it is we are measuring, and then take a walk down Nostalgia Lane. But first we look at what I think we can call The Sputtering Economy, because that will tie into our inflation discussion.
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Saturday, November 20, 2010
Zombie Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
The Keynesians are having a highly public quarrel on a deep and divisive issue – a fundamental issue. They are wrangling over exchange rates.
Obama and Bernanke and the U.S. Congress want the Chinese to raise the value of the Chinese currency. The Chinese don’t want to.
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Saturday, November 20, 2010
Is Inflation Lurking Around the Corner? / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The potential inflationary impact of the second round of quantitative easing, QE2, is at the top of the list of charges critics have complied against the Fed. Let us look at the current evidence on inflation, inflation expectations, and the Fed's tool kit to fight inflation to conclude if the fear of inflation is credible.
Starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the October CPI rose 0.2% and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady. The year-to-year change of both price measures shows a decelerating trend since the early part of the year (see chart 2).
Friday, November 19, 2010
Will Christmas Shopping Revive the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Danny_Schechter
Funny how, back in 1929, we had a black Thursday and then a Black Friday as the market crashed, plunging the country into a depression. Now we have every retailer in every mall in America on their knees praying for a prosperous black Friday the day after Thanksgiving,
Friday, November 19, 2010
Bernanke Seeks New International Monetary System, Warns End of US Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In speeches before a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt, Ben Bernanke went on an unprecedented attack, accusing China of throwing a monkey wrench into the global recovery, blaming China for slow global growth and a potential "End to the Tepid U.S. Recovery".