Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 29, 2018
How Trump’s Trade Policies Actually Damage the Economy / Economics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
We have a temporary truce in the trade war.No one is quite sure if it will last, especially financial markets. After a short-lived rally, they saw little to celebrate in the latest Trump-Xi meeting.
The US and China have serious disputes. And I think tariffs are the wrong tool to solve them. So I’m not optimistic this break will accomplish much either. We’ll see.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Why Chinese Economic Reforms Will Stay the Course / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After four decades of reforms and opening, China is accelerating the transition to post-industrial society.As Chinese President Xi Jinping gave his highly-anticipated speech on Monday on the 40th anniversary of Chinese reforms and opening-up policies, it was closely watched internationally in light of the 90-day truce in the U.S. trade wars.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
By most measures, the US economy is performing okay. GDP growth is still near 3.5%. Unemployment is below 4%. Inflation is up a bit but still historically low.Yes, the data has flaws. There’s plenty of regional variation. Your mileage may vary. But conditions could be a lot worse.
The problem: Sometimes the economy weakens beneath the surface.
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Thursday, December 06, 2018
Is The US Economy Heading Into A Recession? / Economics / Recession
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, one of my members of Elliottwavetrader was in attendance at the 32nd Economic Outlook Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. On the first day, he sat in a room with 150 economists. When asked how many see a recession in 2019, all of two hands went up.
So, let me ask you a question: When was the last time the majority of economists correctly called for a recession? (I think we all know the answer to this one).
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As many hoped, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting in the Buenos Aires G20 Summit resulted in a truce. The devil is in the details.
As the G20 Summit ended in Buenos Aires, the G20 official summit statement acknowledged flaws in global commerce, called for reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO) and deleted the word “protectionism” after U.S. resistance.
The statement was completed only after hours of diplomatic bargaining over the night. As far as the European Union (EU) was concerned, the U.S. was the lone holdout on almost every issue in Buenos Aires, particularly in climate change.
Monday, December 03, 2018
Trade War Truce Won’t Fix China / Economics / China Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The Main Stream Financial Media would love to have investors believe that the recent problems in the global equity market are all about a trade war with China. Therefore, everything can be made right just because Trump shook hands with Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting in Argentina. But the truth is, China’s problems are structural in nature--resulting from a centrally-planned economy that goads its citizenry into pre-fabricated urban areas in order to manufacture a pre-determined rate of growth. Nevertheless, what the Chinese government has actually accomplished is to produce a dystopia; one that was erected upon the largest percentage increase in debt the world has ever witnessed.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession / Economics / Recession 2019
By: James_Quinn
“This country, and with it most of the Western world, is presently going through a period of inflation and credit expansion. As the quantity of money in circulation and deposits subject to check increases, there prevails a general tendency for the prices of commodities and services to rise. Business is booming. Yet such a boom, artificially engineered by monetary and credit expansion, cannot last forever. It must come to an end sooner or later. For paper money and bank deposits are not a proper substitute for non-existing capital goods. Economic theory has demonstrated in an irrefutable way that a prosperity created by an expansionist monetary and credit policy is illusory and must end in a slump, an economic crisis. It has happened again and again in the past, and it will happen in the future, too.” – Ludwig von Mises – 1952
Friday, November 30, 2018
The World-Class Lessons of China’s Shanghai Free-Trade Zone / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Amid the fifth anniversary of the Shanghai Free-Trade Zone, new economic zones are proliferating in China’s critical productivity centers. Despite trade wars, China is opening but in its own terms.
The Shanghai Free-Trade Zone (FTZ) was launched in September 2013, some five years ago. It was the first FTZ in mainland China and has progressively been expanding its territorial coverage. Yet, territorial coverage is only a part of its strategic significance.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
BEA Leaves US 3rd Quarter 2018 GDP Unchanged at 3.50% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2018, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.50% annual rate, up +0.01% from their previous estimate but still down -0.66% from the prior quarter. The +0.01% improvement in the headline number masks a troublesome shift in the composition of that growth from consumer spending to even more inventory growth. The headline contribution from consumer spending on goods and services weakened by -0.24% and the growth is now lower than the prior quarter. Offsetting that was an upward revision to inventories (+0.20%), which are now reported to be growing at a +2.27% annualized rate. As a consequence, the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy (the "real final sales of domestic product") was revised downward by -0.19%, now dropping by over four percent (-4.10%) from the prior quarter.
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Friday, November 23, 2018
There is evidence that deflationary forces are already taking hold in America / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn
When I was writing technical analysis reports for the customers of a major global bank, I received some interesting feedback from one of the bank's relationship managers. The customers liked the reports, she said, but it would be good if I made them less "technical." Making technical analysis reports less technical, hmmm. (To be fair, it is actually good advice because striking a balance between technical details and readability is an art.) Sometimes, though, an explanation of a concept cannot help but delve into some detail. So please bear with me on this one.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
How APEC Can Boost Free Trade in Asia Pacific / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
Amid trade wars, the outcome of the APEC meeting matters. As globalization is at crossroads, trade in Asia today will shape world trade tomorrow.As the 21 member countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meet during the weekend in Papua New Guinea, there is an elevated international concern about the future of global trade amid the tide of nationalism and protectionism.
APEC member economies represent some 40% of global population, the region’s combined GDP is more than 60% of global GDP and it accounts for almost 50% of global trade in goods and services. What APEC leaders decide matters.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2018
The Economic Costs of Corruption in Philippines / Economics / Phillippines
By: Dan_Steinbock
The recent $200 million customs debacle may be just a tip of the iceberg. Due to illicit financial flows, Philippines has lost almost $10 billion annually. Tax evasion may be as costly. In this status quo, only a fully independent anti-graft campaign can succeed.In August, 500 kilos of shabu (methamphetamine), estimated at ₱4.3 billion (over $80 million), that entered the country was intercepted by the Bureau of Customs at Manila’s container port. The next day, authorities found similar containers, but not the drugs estimated at ₱11 billion (almost $210 million).
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Wednesday, November 07, 2018
Zimbabwe's Road to Serfdom / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In 1944, my good friend, the late Nobelist Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), published the Road to Serfdom. It immediately became an international sensation. In it, Hayek argued that government interventions into markets, whether they be via regulatory mandates or the outright taking of private property, will lead to an initial failure. In short, they will be counterproductive. In an attempt to correct its initial errors, the government then does more of the same, only in greater detail. Further disappointments will lead to still more far-reaching and detailed interventionist measures, until socialism and a state of total tyranny are reached.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
How Government Causes Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
We know that inflation is the debasement of money by government. The effects of inflation show up in the form of rising prices over time. The rising prices are a reflection of the loss of purchasing power of the currency involved. For our purposes, that means the U.S. dollar.
The chart below depicts increases in the Consumer Price Index, year-to-year, dating back to 1914…
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Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Chinese Economic Prospects Amid US Trade Wars / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As US trade war damage is spreading, markets reflect an elusive calm before a potential storm. While Chinese prospects and reforms prevail amid challenging conditions, IMF's global outlook remains too optimistic for 2018-19.According to new data, China’s exports rose by 14.5% year-on-year in September, which is an acceleration from the previous month. However, growth in imports declined to 14.3%.
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Friday, October 12, 2018
Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable. We can ride out a trade war better than China can, the thinking goes.
This only works if the US economy keeps prospering long enough for the tariffs to make China bend.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Forget What Phony Government Statistics Say – the "Strong Dollar" Buys Less / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Steinbock
Some of last week’s weakness in the stock market was attributed to surprisingly week jobs report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in significantly below projections.
However, much of that weakness was explained by Hurricane Florence. nd the headline unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% – the lowest in almost 50 years.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
The Branded US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Last week Donald Trump, in his own estimation, succeeded in replacing what he claimed to be the "worst trade deal in history" with what he claims was "the best trade deal in history." If true, this would not only make good on one of his central campaign promises, but it would be a genuinely significant development. In reality, the unveiling of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal is just the latest iteration of the President's talent for branding. As is the case in other aspects of the president's view of economic matters, the difference between then and now is almost purely semantic.
Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Inflation Target Regrets / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Beginning this fall, and continuing throughout 2019, the stock market’s performance should be vastly different from what has occurred during the prior few years. Indeed, the huge reconciliation of stock prices is arriving now.
The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
ECB Meeting Minutes and US Inflation Data in Focus / Economics / Inflation
By: Submissions
We don’t have a central bank meeting scheduled for this week, but we get the minutes of the latest ECB one. Following the upbeat remarks of President Draghi at the conference following that meeting, it will be interesting to see whether other ECB officials are on the same page. In the US, we have the CPIs for September. We get inflation data from Norway and Sweden as well.
Monday appears to be a quiet day in terms of economic releases. The only noteworthy data point we have on the calendar is German industrial production for August, which is expected to have rebounded 0.4% mom after sliding 1.1% in July.
On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get Australia’s NAB business survey for September. Although this is usually not a market mover, given the RBA’s emphasis on wage growth, we will take a close look at the Labour Costs sub-index. At its last two meetings, the Bank reiterated that wage growth remains low, but removed the part saying that this is likely to continue. Instead, officials noted that it has picked up a little and that further lift is expected. The NAB Labour Costs index accelerated to +1.3% qoq in the three months to August, from 0.9% in the three months to July and it would be interesting to see whether this improvement will continue as the RBA has suggested.
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