Sunday, October 10, 2021
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?
QE Infinity
While I’ve warned on several occasions that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the latter now wants to provide more QE once it concludes QE. To explain, with the ECB’s PEPP program set to expire at the end of March 2022, the central bank is increasingly worried about a bond market sell-off. And with sluggish Eurozone growth, exorbitant sovereign debt and a lack of fiscal impulse increasing the ECB’s anxiety, officials are studying “alternatives” to suppress interest rates in the Eurozone’s most debt-ridden countries.
Sunday, October 10, 2021
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower. The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push home prices a bit lower over the next few months. The Real Estate ETF, IYR, is already reflecting a roughly 10% decline in valuation since early September 2021.
In the first part of this research article, I shared a historical chart of the US Average Mortgage rate and some data suggesting the average US consumer is somewhat bound to certain home price constraints based on Average Income. Typically, mortgage payments should stay below 50% of the borrower’s total take-home income. Depending on the borrower and the home price, many US borrowers may already be priced out of the market – even with 3.25% interest rates.
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Saturday, October 09, 2021
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The War with China Mega-trend. If you have been following my analysis over the past 5 years then you will know that I expect a war with China is being inevitable with many flashpoint's for an hot war likely culminating in the nuking of the spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
This simulation covers what is most probable outcome if China launched an all out assault to seize Taiwan and the US chose to intervened with determined force i.e. its 7th Fleet comprising 2 air craft carriers and about 70 ships to deter such an attack.
So who would win such an engagement of largely naval forces on an epic scale?
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Saturday, October 09, 2021
When Will the Fed Taper? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: The_Gold_Report
In this review of the quarter, Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management, discusses the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, its talk of tapering them, and what that could mean for the broader markets.
To taper or not to taper, that is the question. So far, the Federal Reserve’s constant talk and threats of an impending taper have performed the job better than actually doing anything. Stocks are flat, gold is down, as are bonds. But markets are beginning to grow weary of the constant threats with no action. When the Fed actually starts to taper, we may see markets turn. It was a poor quarter in most major markets and assets.
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Saturday, October 09, 2021
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Prepared to be Scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post pandemic frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave kids out there! Here Anika jumps straight into the deep end by dancing with the Ghouls and Ghosts of Alton Towers!
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Here's what to expect when ordering a custom built PC from Scan Computers UK, where in this video in our series we evaluate how the system has performed over the past 6 months, how reliable is the build, what is the quality of tech support and what to look out for after suing our scan computers 5950x, RTX 3-80, 64gb £3300 monster for over 6 months.
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Armored vehicle-enabled soldiers and the designers who build them understand that a main battle tank must balance three critical elements in order to "complete the mission."
This has been true conceptually since the time of David and Goliath, the Three Hundred Spartans at Thermopylae, with Alexander the Greats' elite Silver Shields, and tank battles in four Israeli wars.
As an analogy for those who acquire and hold precious metals, it offers a close fit to their own ability to "complete the financial mission" of asset protection and growth.
First, a main battle tank must have superior firepower, being able to reliably counter and defeat its adversaries on the field of battle.
Friday, October 08, 2021
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s the most overused word in finance…And right now, markets are being tested by two “crises” at once.
You’ve likely noticed these “crises” are dragging down stocks, especially tech stocks. The Nasdaq just had its worst day since March. It’s now lost 6% in the last two weeks.
A 6% dip might not sound all that big… and it’s not. It’s a perfectly normal gyration that happens a few times a year.
But this dip feels worse to many folks, since it’s the first meaningful drop in the Nasdaq since May.
Today, we’ll look at the “twin crises” the media is focused on. And we’ll evaluate if and where you should shift your money in response to them…
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
"Is it a good time to sell a house?"Some people buy a house solely as an investment.
Others want a better place to live -- perhaps more room for a growing family. The investment part is secondary. However, even people in this category would likely hold off on a purchase if they had an indication that lower home prices were just around the corner.
Well, there is such an "indication."
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Prepared to be Scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post pandemic frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave children out there! Here is our first video in our series of what it's like to step foot into Alton Towers Scarefest 2021!
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Thursday, October 07, 2021
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing / Personal_Finance / Investing 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AJ Bell vs Interactive Investor, which is best for buying US stocks from the UK. This video goes through the pro's and cons of buying FAANG stocks, that's Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, (Netflix is NOT a proper Faang stock!) How much does it cost to buy Facebook shares, which platform is best to trade with in terms of order management and quotes execution. What's the best platform in terms of holding onto ones cash.
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Thursday, October 07, 2021
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger links debt and wolf packs in this exploration of the effects that the troubled Chinese company will have on gold.
When I first launched the GGMA Advisoryservice in January 2020, the very first Forecast Issue dealt with the globe's number one ailment, and it was not then, and is not today, related to mankind's physical health but rather its financial health. The word that kept resonating throughout that issue was debt.
If the global financial system was a human body, debt would be the fatty tissue that surrounds and clogs our organs, while recessions would be the fasting that rids the body of type 2 diabetes, obesity and depression. The problem that I identified as early as 2008 was that those that would manage our lives (whether elected or unelected) carry a belief system that holds that the best cure for obesity is a bowl of chicken noodle soup followed by six Big Macs and a big slice of apple pie.
"Debt default in tough times is the economic wolf pack that culls the economy of inefficient businesses and excesses."
In other words, it has been debt that has caused the past two major financial upheavals, and both involved the unprecedented creation of mind-boggling amounts of debt in order to avoid the natural cleansing of debt that occurs during economic downturns.
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Thursday, October 07, 2021
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
See "powerful evidence that the Fed is not in control of interest rates"
Most everyone is familiar with the phrase: "Keep your eye on the ball," which of course means -- focus on what really matters.
Those who seek clues about the direction of interest rates believe the "ball" is their nation's central bank.
For example, in the U.S., Federal Reserve announcements are the subject of countless financial headlines, like this one from Sept. 22 (Reuters):
Fed signals bond-buying taper coming 'soon,' rate hike next year
The assumption in most of these headlines is that the central bank determines the direction of rates.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
CISCO, the backbone of the then fast developing internet, much as Tesla is the backbone of the fast emerging EV and automated vehicles sector, with the likes of Google throwing tens of billions into AI and robotics each year. Everyone owned Cisco, just as everyone owns Google, Amazon, Apple or Facebook stock today.
Back In March 2000 Cisco was trading at a price of $146, on a PE of 120, to the moon, TO THE MOON! Where many were concerned Cisco WAS the Internet, one of the most valuable certification tracks of the time were those by Cisco, where even I was CCNA certified, desperately trying not to get further sucked into the highly costly Cisco certification tracks where CCNA gave way to CCNP to CCIE and beyond, the certifications were mushrooming into more OTT levels than what scientology has! CCNA OTTIV where after decades and several hundreds of thousands of dollars one would become one with the internet, be able to move data packets around with their mind! Other companies soon saw what a money spinner the certification tracks were and so the likes of Microsoft started their own such as Microsoft Office certifications, but I digress.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start with the BPGDM, Gold miners bullish percent chart which has just made a lower low along with the GDX on top. If you recall I was looking for some kind of divergence between the 2 which hasn’t happened yet red arrows on right side of the chart. There is no doubt that the BPGDM is trading down toward the low end of its range between 100 on top and zero on the bottom. It would be nice to see the GDX on top trade back above the 2016 horizontal S&R line at 30.50.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
On the heels of Facebook's 5% sell-off, it's worth talking about the rest of the FAANGs -- the tech heavyweights: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX); and Alphabet (GOOG).
Our friends at the world's largest market-forecasting firm Elliott Wave International tell us that for the past couple of weeks, something's been happening in the FANG+ index that deserves your attention.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
So you have just clipped your budgies wings or are contemplating clipping it's wings and are wondering how long will it take for the budgie to grow new flight feathers and start flying around the room again which I answer of what to expect 10 weeks after 2 budgies had their flight feathers clipped in our latest budgies / parakeets care video, where the Green budgie had a total of 10 flight feathers clipped whilst the Blue budgie had 8 clipped. So lets find out how many have grown back after 10 weeks and what their flying capabilities are.
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It has been a while since my last in-depth analysis of Silver as the commodity is not on my investing or trading radar with my primary focus on AI stocks, the stock market in general ahead of an expected significant correction and even the possibility of a market panic event to capitalise upon (Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022). Nevertheless early in the course of this analysis I did post a quick technical take in market briefs that warned of a possible 20% crash in the silver price that this analysis seeks to expand on to conclude in a detailed trend forecast into mid 2022.
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EWI
July 2: "Bitcoin [is] at or near the end of [an Elliott wave] correction"
In early September, bitcoin hit a price level near $52,000 -- however, since then, the price has trended lower.
Indeed, on September 24 alone, the price of the cryptocurrency fell 5%.
The financial press pinpointed a supposed "cause":
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