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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Friday, July 03, 2020

Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We all fear the second wave of infections. But the U.S. hasn’t even controlled the first one! Bad news for Americans, but good news for gold.

Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the epidemiological situation in the United States does not look well. The number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has been rising again since mid-June, which means that coronavirus is far from being contained. Actually, the number of new cases has almost reached a new record level!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 03, 2020

Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent Gaps in price action in the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) presents a clear picture of future price targets and support/resistances.  Gaps are one of the most common forms of Technical Analysis techniques.  They represent “voids” where price activity has skipped a range of price as it advances or declines aggressively.

Gaps are commonly used as targets for future price activity – where price attempts to “fill the gap”. In Technical Analysis theory, any gap that appears should eventually be “filled” by price in the future.  Thus, any open gap that does not fill is still considered an “open target range”.

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Politics

Friday, July 03, 2020

How the Fed Gets Away With Ripping Off Ordinary Americans / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

The Federal Reserve has printed trillions of dollars without generating runaway price inflation through the use of a neat trick.

The privately owned bank cartel shovels the bulk of the money to Wall Street banks and not to the public at large. Instead of millions of Americans rushing out to bid up prices on consumer goods, a relative handful of bankers is using the free money to bid up asset prices and then pay themselves huge performance bonuses.

It’s quite the racket. Fed officials have been able to point at stock prices as “proof” of how they successfully engineered an economic recovery.

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Companies

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing / Companies / Life Extension

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis will now seek to update potential buying levels for AI stocks during Q2 of where stocks could trade down to in terms of technical support levels during the anticipated general stock market correction of about 15% that should be imminent.

Top 5 AI Stocks are all primary, the ordering of which is arbitrary for instance of the 3 Google, Amazon and Microsoft it's a toss up of which comes first. For instance If I was compiling the list today then I would likely put Amazon at No1 ahead of Google. So keep in mind that the rankings are more in terms of primary, Secondary and Tertiary rather than their number order.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 02, 2020

All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 02, 2020

The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday's overnight gains evaporated faster than you could say Jack Robinson, and not much bottom fishing came later that day. Is the tide in stocks turning – or has it turned already? With Thursday's financial news-driven gains reversed in a flash, it's tempting to say so – especially when coupled with the other signs I see in the charts.

In short, more downside appears likely, confirming what I said in Friday's analysis. A quick quote: "Despite the generally positive S&P 500 performance during the runups to Independence Day, the new Fed rules might not have saved the day yet. Trading remains choppy, corona cases just made a new U.S. daily high, and the elections are getting closer."

Will the market agree?

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Politics

Thursday, July 02, 2020

US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”H.L. Mencken

After writing a particularly depressing article where I come to a logical conclusion, based upon the factual evidence of all previous Fourth Turnings, I always wonder whether I’m being too pessimistic and peddling doom, like many of the clickbait websites. The conclusions I reached at the end of my last two articles were particularly gloomy and made me wonder whether I was going too far. I thought maybe I was too pessimistic and my predictions of civil chaos and global disorder were overblown.

“A failure to meet the challenges ahead with bravery, grit, good judgement, adherence to our Constitutional principles, and a fair amount of luck, could lead to a defeat from which we will never recover. No one knows how and when the climax of this Crisis will play out, but the acceleration towards our rendezvous with destiny is in motion.” – Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Climax – May 10

It just so happened I published my last article on May 24, predicting a 2nd Civil War. I figured we might have a couple years to prepare, as there is likely five to ten years  before this Fourth Turning reaches a climax. Little did I know a black man with a long criminal background, high on fentanyl and resisting arrest in Minneapolis, would be killed by a white police thug named Derek Chauvin, who had seventeen complaints against him over his illustrious career, on the day after my article was posted. Oddly, it seems this murder will be our Fort Sumter/Pearl Harbor of this Fourth Turning.

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Economics

Thursday, July 02, 2020

After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the IMF downgraded most growth projections, due to weaker private consumption and elevated uncertainty in investment. Those are the twin engines of the Philippine economy. So, what’s ahead for economic recovery?

As I wrote in a report 2 months ago (click here), the global economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund (April 2020) was too optimistic. Last week, the IMF downgraded most of its projections. Now global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, almost 2 percentage points below the previous forecast.

Consumption growth has been downgraded for most economies, due to the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity. Worse, investment is expected to remain subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid elevated uncertainty.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base.  It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new momentum rally to a new momentum price base.

We believe July and August 2020 could prompt a series of these types of rotations as Gold attempts a move above $2100 or higher.  Allow us to explain our thinking as we explore this price pattern a bit further.

The first thing we need to realize is that Gold is nearing the $1900 level as it continues to push higher.  This is a very significant level for Gold because it would be very close to breaking the 2011 all-time high level near $1917.90.  As gold creeps higher because of perceived risk factors in the global markets, once Gold price levels break above $1850, then the rally to levels above $1900 is almost certain to drive investors into the precious metals markets at a much faster pace.  Psychologically, once Gold rallies above $1850 with the US stock market trading near all-time highs – something has to break. The disconnect between Gold (risk protection) and the valuation of equities (the stock market) are not aligned.

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Politics

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' / Politics / US Politics

By: Richard_Mills

In accepting the Democratic nomination for the presidency on July 2, 1932, President Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke of a “new deal for the American people” who had been ravaged by the Great Depression. 

After winning the 1932 election by a landslide, FDR, as he came to be known during World War II, took immediate action to bring about economic relief to the unemployed through public works programs, and to undertake reforms in industry, agriculture, finance, hydroelectric power, labor and housing. 

Roosevelt’s New Deal, which lasted from 1933-39, also vastly increased the scope of the federal government in the economy. 

Agencies such as the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps were established to provide short-term aid, as well as temporary jobs, employment on construction projects, and youth work in national forests. 

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... / Currencies / US Dollar

By: EWI

June started off with speculators decidedly negative toward the U.S. dollar.

On the second day of the month, the Financial Times said:

Wall Street strategists say dollar could be set for "dramatic" falls

Elliott Wave International's June 10 U.S. Short Term Update, a three-times-a-week publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, took note of the bearish sentiment when it showed this chart and said:

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Politics

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens / Politics / Government Spending

By: MoneyMetals

The gold and silver market rallied earlier this week to record slight new multi-year highs before giving back some of those gains late Wednesday and into Friday morning. 

Concerns about rising COVID-19 infections weighed on industrial commodities and stocks.  New York and Texas announced they would suspend further reopening plans, while a spike in cases in Arizona raised alarms among public health officials. 

However, other data shows that death rates continue to decline – evidence that the novel coronavirus is far less lethal than previously thought. And the rebound in infections is coming primarily from the ongoing increase in testing and reporting.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Still Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ stocks rocketed out of mid-March’s stock panic, breaking out to major new bull-market highs in mid-May.  Such blisteringly-fast gains, and gold stocks’ upleg stalling out since, have left many traders nervous about this sector.  Calls for a serious selloff are mounting.  But arguing in favor for more near-term gains to come, gold stocks never grew overvalued in this post-panic upleg and are still undervalued today.

The recent gold-stock action is best understood through this sector’s most-popular benchmark, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Holding the world’s biggest and best gold miners, it dominates gold-stock-ETF capital flows.  GDX’s world-leading $15.1b in net assets this week are triple the size of its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold miners ETF!  No other gold-stock ETFs come remotely close to GDX’s scale.

And the major gold stocks of GDX have been on a wild ride in recent months.  As gold itself got sucked into mid-March’s stock panic, which was fueled by fears of the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, the gold stocks plummeted.  GDX collapsed 38.8% in 0.6 months into mid-March.  And the final couple days of that were technically a full-on crash, a 20%+ cratering in 2 days.  GDX crashed 24.5% in that span!

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

During the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. We invite you to read our today’s article about the high premiums in physical gold market during the pandemic and find out whether they were indicated scam or supply crisis.

Gold is expected to serve as a safe-haven asset. But during the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. What a safe haven that people can’t find? And does not the price divergence between physical and paper gold show the price manipulation in the latter market? Let’s analyze what really happened in the bullion market during the coronavirus crisis.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first part of this research article, we briefly discussed the recent price and global economic events related to the 2018 to 2020 US stock market volatility and the COVID-19 virus event.  The premise of this research post was to highlight the current upside parabolic price trend that initiated shortly after the 2015~16 US election cycle event.  It is almost impossible to look at the NAS100 chart, below, and not see the dramatic upside price advance that took place after the November 2016 US elections.

It is almost as if the US stock markets had been primed by Federal Reserve intervention over the previous 5+ years and someone let the monster out of the cage.  The deregulation, changes to tax structures and general perception of market opportunity changed almost immediately after the November 2016 elections and really never looked back.

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Currencies

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Bob_Kirtley

Introduction

We are presently enduring a period of great change due to the Coronavirus which has already cost many lives and inflicted untold damage to the global economy.

Alongside the damage caused by this virus the world has also entered a recession having been through an eleven-year period of expansion.

To make matters worse many nations are shouldering massive debts raising questions about the possibility of debt defaults on a grand scale.

Today we are taking a peek into what the future might look like and it is not a pretty sight.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

IMF predicts deeper global recession and slower recovery, just as I expected. Good news for gold.

The June edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report Update is out! The main message is that the IMF predicts now even a deeper recession than two months ago.

As a reminder, in April edition of the World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF projected that the global economy would contract sharply by 3 percent this year, while the U.S. economy would plunge 5.9 percent. When it comes to 2021, the IMF projected 5.8 percent growth for the global economy and 4.7 percent for the U.S.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Silver Is Still Cheap For Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is still near all-time lows in many ways. One of the most significant measures wherein silver is at an all-time low, is its price relative to the amount of US dollars (US monetary base) in existence.

Below, is a long-term chart of the silver price relative to the US monetary base:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Fed Trampoline Cliff Diving / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

We start this week's commentary with some rather depressing news from Reuters:

The ratio of downgrades to upgrades in the credit ratings of leveraged loans has spiked to a record level, five times above that hit during the last global financial crisis, reflecting the unprecedented stress in risky assets due to the coronavirus pandemic. Leveraged loans, which are loans taken out by companies that have very high levels of debt, usually with non-investment grade credit ratings--tend to be used by private equity firms as a way to fund acquisitions of such companies. The U.S. leveraged lending market has grown to more than $2 trillion, up 80% since the early 2010s, according to credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

More Stock Market Selling Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.

Intermediate trend Down into mid-July

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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