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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Low Inflation Makes Powell a Dove. How It Affects Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation remains low, while Powell signals dovish Fed for years. Good for gold.

The US CPI inflation rate declined 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.8 percent drop in April. The decrease was mainly driven by decreases in energy, transportation and apparel prices. The core CPI also declined 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent drop in April. It was the third consecutive monthly decline, which happened for the first time in history of the index that starts in 1957. Anyway, compared with the previous month, we see some stabilization of disinflation forces, at least on a monthly basis.

On annual basis, the overall CPI increased just 0.2 percent (seasonally adjusted and merely 0.1 percent without the seasonal adjustments), following 0.4 percent increase in April. It was the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The core CPI rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the 1.4 percent increase in the previous month. It was the smallest increase since March 2011. Both indices are substantially lower than a few months ago. The chart below shows these disinflationary trends.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Stock Market Waterfall Selling in S&P 500 Is Over Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Just as I called for, there wasn't much S&P 500 downside left, and I am hugely profitable on the upside reversal from near yesterday's premarket lows. That's quite a turn in momentum, isn't it? So, is the correction in the last throws?

I would certainly say so in terms of prices, though it might take a little longer in terms of time. If I look though at the enthusiastic reaction to the Fed announcing late yesterday its purchases of individual corporate bonds on the secondary market, I doubt that the correction has much shelf life left.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 18, 2020

NASDAQ: Some Historical Insights into Tech Stocks Mania / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: EWI

No doubt, you've heard: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite just passed the 10-thousand mark for the first-time ever, even as the DJIA remains below its February high.

This infatuation with technology is nothing new.

Indeed, EWI's publications have long noted that the most important peaks of the past 200 years have been associated with periods of intense technological advance.

As far back as the 1835 peak, market participants were enamored with electricity, photography, blast furnaces for the mass production of iron and indoor plumbing. In 1929, investors placed their hopes on commercial air flight and radio. In 1966, futurists were envisioning colonies on the Moon. And, in the year 2000, the shares of internet companies were skyrocketing.

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Companies

Thursday, June 18, 2020

XLF Financial Sector Stocks ETF May Break Below Price Gap / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team warned of a peak in the Financial Sector ETF on June 10, 2020, with this article.

It was important to understand the technical setup that existed at that time and what the Fibonacci Price Modeling system was showing then.  There was very clear support near $23 that was highlighted by the Fibonacci Price Modeling System and we were very clear in our future price predictions within that article…

“The $27 price peak sets up directly between our two Fibonacci Daily upside price target (Peak) levels.  We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days.  The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers. “

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Politics

Thursday, June 18, 2020

REOPEN THE SCHOOLS! Kids Going Crazy in Lockdown Britain, Sheffield UK / Politics / Educating Children

By: N_Walayat

Depending on where you live and what year you are in some children are getting their first taste of school today. However still most are not being allowed the opportunity for any face to face contact. Pediatricians warn of huge amount of damage being done to children's life chances and mental health unless schools are immediately opened as many kids are literally going crazy sat locked down at home!

And apparently whilst it is okay for children to visit Primark many schools are refusing to let children back into school which gives the impression of teachers literally hiding under their desks fearful of the little monsters that they refuse to see let alone teach, instead barraging parents with junk mail asking them to do their jobs for them.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Stock Market S&P 500 ADL Predictions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020.  This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction.  From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction.  This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.

Please take a moment to review our original ADL article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggests-us-markets-12-over-valued/

In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels.  The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event.  It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Silver is Going to have a Sudden, Massive Move to $50 that will Suprise Everyone / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento president and founder of Pento Portfolio Services. Michael is a well-known money manager, market commentator, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years, and it's always a pleasure to have him on with us.

Michael, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.

Michael Pento: Thank you so much for having me back on Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well, Michael, it's been a few months since we've had you on last and just a little bit has been going on in the world. COVID-19 has hit the states to say the least and caused major disruptions in the economy. Governors have instituted stay-home orders. Tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now we're seeing major rioting and social unrest in many cities throughout the country over the police killing of a black man in Minnesota last week.

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Currencies

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

8 Rules for Forex Market Beginners / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Gold Stocks Investment Strong / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold investment demand remains strong, buoying the yellow metal and its miners’ stocks.  Investors have continued actively diversifying into gold despite soaring stock markets and weaker summer seasonals.  The Fed’s extreme money printing fueling these precarious stock-market heights is perilously inflationary, making upping gold portfolio allocations essential.  This ongoing capital shift is likely to keep pushing gold higher.

The dominant driver of gold’s major price trends is investment demand.  While it isn’t the largest demand category, it varies greatly depending on global-financial-market conditions.  The best global gold supply-and-demand data is only published quarterly by the venerable World Gold Council, in its must-read Gold Demand Trends reports.  They highlight the big volatility inherent in gold investment demand in recent years.

From 2015 to 2019, jewelry demand averaged 51.2% of overall gold demand.  But the biggest jewelry year out of the last 5 was only 1.2x the smallest one in tonnage-demand terms.  Investment demand only averaged 29.0% of overall gold demand in 2015 to 2019, yet the difference between the best and worst years in this span was 1.7x.  The WGC’s latest GDT on Q1’20 again proved how important investment is.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Silver Tops Gold in May, Setting up a Summer Surge / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Although the gold to silver ratio has tightened a bit, it remains elevated and could indicate more upside for silver, according to McAlinden Research Partners.

Silver and silver miners popped in May on the back of a rebound in industrial activity around the world. Ultra-low interest rates and expectations of a weaker dollar have compounded several political pressures that begun popping up at the end of the month. Though the gold to silver ratio has tightened a bit, it remains elevated and could indicate more upside for silver.

Silver futures capped a gain of nearly 24% for the month of May, the largest monthly gain since 2011. The metal jumped strongly on hopes of an upturn in industrial activity as economies around the world have begun to "reopen" in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Companies

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Google - Investing in Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks for 2020 and Beyond! / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis will now seek to update potential buying levels for AI stocks during Q2 of where stocks could trade down to in terms of technical support levels during the anticipated general stock market correction of about 15% that should be imminent.

Top 5 AI Stocks are all primary, the ordering of which is arbitrary for instance of the 3 Google, Amazon and Microsoft it's a toss up of which comes first. For instance If I was compiling the list today then I would likely put Amazon at No1 ahead of Google. So keep in mind that the rankings are more in terms of primary, Secondary and Tertiary rather than their number order.

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Companies

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

AMD Ryzen XT Refresh Very BAD Value for Money - 20% Price Hike for 2% Boost, 3900xt, 3800xt, 3600xt / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: HGR

The Ryzen XT Refresh has now been officially launched by AMD and so no more speculation about what to expect, furthermore whilst the brief worries of huge price hikes as implied by Amazon's Italian web page have not materialised, nevertheless these so called new processors are a huge disappointment that only deliver a 100mhz turbo clock speed for the 3600xt and 3900xt whilst the 3800xt turbo gets a 200mhz boost when compared to their X predecessors.

To further illustrate why these new processors are bad value for money lets take a case by case comparison for each processor.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

The AI Stocks Mega-trend - Moores Law is NOT Dead! / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is finally showing signs of heading for a significant correction after bull run that has seen AI sector stocks retrace virtually all of their corona crash, with the Dow closing sharply lower Thursday to 25,128 that looks like targeting a trend to 23,000, so apt timing for this my latest analysis that seeks to answer why the number one priority for investors should be to accumulate into AI mega-trend stocks, and why one should embrace plunges in the stock market as buying opportunities. Though the tendency to wait for corrections before climbing onboard the AI mega-trend could result in fundamental errors that investors could come to regret for decades to come which is the primary focus of this article that seeks clear away the fog of future uncertainty to map out a trend for AI stocks and to a lesser extent the general stock market indices over the next 15 years!

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Strong Demand Will Not Send Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold is original money. As such, it is the measure of value for everything else.

Gold was money before the US dollar and other paper currencies. All paper currencies are substitutes for gold, i.e., real money.

So, how much is money worth? Money is worth what you can buy with it. In my article A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold, I compared the cost to purchase bread and gasoline over the past one hundred years using US dollars vs. gold.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Gold Stocks Correction and Upcoming Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Before updating the status of the gold miner (HUI) correction, let’s take a quick review of the Macrocosm, because it’s always a good time to be clear on important macro considerations.

The graphic makes the following points that are the foundation of the NFTRH view on the right/wrong times to be fundamentally bullish on the gold stock sector. In order of priority, a bullish view needs:

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Stocks Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Bullish sentiment appears to have returned to the stock markets with a vengeance. In a historic rally that has taken even die-hard bulls by surprise, the S&P 500 has managed to claw back all of its 2020 losses, taking just 53 sessions for the index to fully restore the nearly $10T in value it shed in an epic bear market. The oil markets have been nearly as impressive.

After entering negative territory for the first time in history, U.S. WTI prices have briefly touched $40/bbl amid record production cuts and an uptick in global demand. Oil and gas stocks have doubled from their March 23 nadir, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that wiped out nearly two decades of gains.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

AMD Ryzen Refresh Bad Value for Money - 3800xt 3900xt 3600xt Specs / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Courtesy of a ***** up on Amazon's Italian website we now know the exact specs in terms of gig hz and pricing for AMD's XT Ryzen 3000 refresh cpus, for the 3900x that becomes the 3900XT, 3800x becomes the 3800XT and the 3600XT.

My video of over 2 weeks ago speculated that the 3900XT would be clocked at 4.1ghz base, 4.8ghz turbo. Which was pretty close to the actual spec with the turbo just 100mhz lower.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

How to Clip a Budgie / Parakeet Parrot's Wings Flight Feathers: Easy Steps! / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: N_Walayat

There are different ways to clip a bird's wings. This video demonstrates how I personally clip my budgies / parakeet parrots to stop them from flying away. . Budgies have 10 flight feathers, the more you trim of them your bird will have a lesser ability to fly, both for your birds safety in not flying to mirrors or windows or worse escape.

Also so that you can take your budgie outdoors for fun in the garden or local park without it flying away.

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Companies

Monday, June 15, 2020

XLF Financial Sector Stocks Under Pressure and What It Means / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Financial sector is unique in that it is an essential component of global economics as well as local economic functions.  Consumers depend on banking services, credit, and all sorts of other financial services in their day-to-day lives.  The Financial sector is one of the components of the US stock market that can suddenly find itself under pricing pressure as an economic crisis event unfolds.  This happens because banks earn a large portion of their income from servicing debt and originating loans.

The recent rally in the Financial sector, over 47% from the March 2020 lows, has reached our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s upside price targets and has also filled a major gap that was created in early March 2020.  Because of these factors, and the current downside price rotation within the Financial Sector, we believe this component of the US stock market could continue to see extended pricing pressure going forward as we learn just how damaging the past 70+ days of the economic shutdown have been for the economy.

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Politics

Monday, June 15, 2020

For History Unfolding To Stay Informed, Watch Less TV / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: Patrick_Watson

Pop math quiz: What is 1918 + 1932 + 1968?

Your calculator may say 5,818, but the real answer is 2020. This year has turned into a combination of those three historic years. In the US, we have

  • A deadly pandemic, like the one in 1918
  • An economic recession that could inspire major political change, as in 1932, and
  • Social unrest, public anger, and mass protests similar to 1968.

The good news: we’re not also engaged in a military conflict, as was the case in 1918 and 1968. But we have lesser involvements around the world, any of which could blow up any time. (Let’s hope they don’t.)

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