Saturday, July 22, 2023

Stock Market S&P500 2023 Road Map Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continues to pull stocks relentlessly higher towards a target of 4,500 by late July. so any correction is likely to be minor i.e. something like a couple of hundred S&P points, 4100 at the lowest, where right now instead of FOMO-ing I am eyeing the run to sub 4000 during that deep pull back into October, so far the market has done nothing to negate this long standing expectation.

Friday, July 21, 2023

CPI LIE, Fed Funds and Earnings and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

CP LIE Tuesday

The smoke and mirrors annual inflation indices which mask the true magnitude of inflation pain that will run for the whole of this decade will Tuesday deliver a mix bag, a sharply lower headline rate falling towards 4%, whilst a stubbornly high core rate that will remain above 5% which is what the Fed is focused upon and thus likely to send yields higher. So the CPI should be a net bearish for stocks. Remember the Fed target is 2% not 5!

Friday, July 21, 2023

AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.

Sunday, July 09, 2023

The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.

Sunday, July 09, 2023

Uk Inflation in 2023: The Current Situation / Economics / Inflation

By: Umer_Mahmood

The April index falls less than expected to 8.7%. And the core figure has been at its best since 1992. After the IMF's good estimates on the economy, markets see a hawkish BoE

Difficult day for the stock markets of the  Continent, which has been affected by a long series of bad news. Starting with the cold shower that came from British inflation, to which are added the fears of the failed agreement on the US debt ceiling and those about the damage that the Chinese economy could suffer from the new wave of Covid together with the ban on Micron chips. But, if on the impasse in Washington there is the belief that an agreement will arrive before 'date X', the race in prices in the United Kingdom gives us a glimpse of a dark future on the interest rate front.

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Current State of Stock Market FOMO / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

US Real Estate Bubble From A Technical Analysis Point Of View / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Understanding The Market Cycles

My focus usually lies with stock indexes, sectors, and commodities, but today, we venture into the real estate market. Real estate is a market that many people don’t fully comprehend. Many are excited by the robust housing market, believing it’s never been a better time to buy. But the reality is, I believe we’re in a phase that isn’t ideal for such investments.

Taking a leaf from Stan Weinstein’s book, he proposed that the market has four stages: Stage 1, where active investment capital isn’t advisable due to the choppy, flatlining market; Stage 2, the bull market phase; Stage 3, a volatile phase where struggle reigns; and Stage 4, a phase marked by a massive decline. Stages 2 & 4 are usually an easy time for investors to make money. But in Stages 1 & 3, it becomes harder to grow your capital and much easier to lose a hefty portion. This is the crucial time to preserve and protect your wealth for reinvestment when conditions improve.

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Stock Market As Bullish As It Gets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare victory against inflation. For all the positive broadening of stock market breadth in cyclicals and tech alike, other asset classes incl. bonds didn‘t get as carried away, meaning that stocks are likely to do a shallow consolidation of steep Friday‘s gains just next (today and tomorrow premarket).

As I have written on Friday – on top of dip buying being the name of the game following Thursday‘s reaction:

(…) As I don‘t expect a hot inflation figure … this should work to ultimately let stocks overcome any initial gyration with ES move to the upside, helping real assets and weakening USD,

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Russia Set to Blow Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant or Use Tactical Nukes - Act Now to Protect / Politics / Ukraine War

By: Eliza_Walayat

RADIATION FALLOUT WARNING! Tactical Nukes or even worse the blowing up of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, Europe's biggest would result in nuclear fallout spreading across Western Europe! The time to act is NOW Not AFTER it happens as you would have zero chance of being able to get your hands on what's needed to protect from nuclear fallout, that's Potassium Iodide tablets and a Radiation Detector as covered in this video.

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: EWI

The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.

The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.

Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Can We Live in a World without Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

The World Silver Survey is an annual report published by The Silver Institute since 1990. It provides market participants with supply and demand statistics for critical sectors of the silver market, along with price and trade data.

The 2022 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 154 million ounces, the most significant since 2015. The 2023 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 129 million ounces, the second-largest since 2015.

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Mark Denning’s 6 Effective Strategies To Ensure Success / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Entrepreneurs must recognize that building a successful business requires dedication, resilience, and a willingness to adapt. It's a transformative journey, one replete with both triumphs and trials. While these lessons are often best learned through experience, it’s worth heeding experts like Mark Denning, a leader in global finance who has helped manage more than $300 billion of investors’ money.

By staying focused and committed to their vision, entrepreneurs can navigate the winding path, overcoming obstacles and inching closer to their goals. While preventing business failure is never guaranteed, implementing these strategies provides a robust foundation for success. By constantly evolving, learning from mistakes, and staying passionately dedicated to their venture, entrepreneurs can breathe life into their dreams, create an enduring impact, and leave an indelible mark on the dynamic tapestry of the business world.

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Peculiarities of cargo security you should know / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Today, previewing the factors that interfere with running your business becomes far more tricky. Some are almost classical, while others appeared from modern tendencies and tech development. It also touches on transportation issues, so securing your goods on their way to the destination is always better. The most reliable approach is building a security system with an armed guard onboard. But what to pay attention to, and how to decide which option is the most effective? Find it out below in our article.

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Why Most investors Underperform the Stocks Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear ReaderThe stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Stock Market Liquidity Perfect Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 decline led by tech met a first hesitant, then more resolute, intraday rebound led by tech retracing prior decline that XLI, XLB and XLE were unable to counter. Thanks to weighting as the share of Top 7 stocks had grown considerably with this bear market rally, these rotations have been insufficient in lifting up the index.

And today isn‘t shaping up to be much better – after breaking my key 4,403, the bears have 4,385 followed by 4,360 in sight. Notably, this is happening when Treasury is sucking liquidity from the market place (that money to buy fresh debt issuance has to come from somewhere, and we can be debating the transmission mechanism strength and accounting) and the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. As yet another tightening sign, BoE just raised...

Today‘s unemployment claims are likely to reiterate the hawkish Fed message ultimately, as in that the central bank still has room to tighten – and more of the realization that it would do that, which neither 3m nor 6m yield reflect totally.

Thursday, June 22, 2023

How to Profit From the Smart Money Footprints / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Submissions

By Justin Spittler Imagine you’re sitting at a bar in Manhattan.

As the bartender’s making your drink, you overhear a conversation from the table behind you.

Two well-dressed men are talking. One looks familiar. He’s a hedge fund manager you’ve seen on TV.

You don’t recognize the other guy. But, from the sound of it, they work together.

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Stocks Climb a Wall of Worry, Technical Analysis Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is literally climbing a wall of worry, refusing to give any opportunity for the mass of investors sat on the sidelines to jump on board the AI gravy trains unless they buy the highs! Most AI tech stocks are now very overbought i.e. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, KLAC, AVGO which had an insane spike last week to $933 that triggered one of my distant SELL limit orders at $899 (current $812).

Whilst many are very overbought that does not mean they cannot become more overbought! This is the problem with TA, the charts tells you that markets are over bought and ripe for a correction, and so one anticipates a fat juicy correction to accumulate into on buying opps perhaps down to below S&P 4000, but as I often state Technical Analysis on it;s own is a coin flip, and worse still is that which most focus on the S&P which is a RED HERRING! Put the two together and you can see how easy it is for most investors to be constantly wrong footed by a. focusing on the S&P and b. not realising that TA is not that reliable going forward, in hindsight its perfect, but going forward it's at best 55/45. One has to go beyond the charts and crunch the numbers and understand the fundamentals that differ for every stock.

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Inflation is Expected to do What?! Implications for Gold. / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The markets just assumed a dovish U-turn in interest rates, thinking that the inflation problem is handled. The below chart features the inflation that’s expected in one year.

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

How Germany's Economy is Turning Ugly / Economics / China Economy

By: EWI

This economic gauge "dipped back below zero in less than a year"

In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters):

Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid

In December of 2020, what is known as the Next Generation EU package became operational. This economic aid was massive, amounting to more than €2 trillion at current prices.