Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What a remarkable day Friday has been! Going into the U.S. session open, we have seen gold challenging its early-June highs. The barrage of geopolitical news has been deafening and gold had literally nowhere to go but up. But something “unexpected” yet totally predictable happened to those who have jumped on the gold bandwagon. Friday’s U.S. session has sent gold lower. On huge volume. And not only gold, that is. Those looking at the charts’ bigger picture, those familiar with our analyses, hadn’t been surprised. Now that the dust is settled and gold pushes lower, let’s examine the aftermath. And draw lessons for the days ahead.

Monday, June 17, 2019

S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks continued to fluctuate on Friday, as investors awaited this week’s Wednesday’s Fed Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index reached the new local high on Tuesday and then it came back below the 2,900 mark. So was it a downward reversal or just correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.5% on Friday, as they extended their short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index gained more than 180 points from its previous week’s Monday’s local low recently. It is currently 2.3% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? / Politics / UK Politics

By: Submissions

Monday, June 17, 2019

Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Robert_Ross

The markets are in the middle of a once-in-a-decade event.

And it says a lot about what you should do with your money right now.

I’m talking about a critical recession indicator called the yield curve inversion—or the Diamond Cross.

As you may recall, a Diamond Cross happens when the difference between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill is negative. This is a telltale sign that the economy is slowing.

The Diamond Cross popped up briefly in March, only to return on May 15. Last week, it was the steepest, or most severe it’s been since April 2007.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Stock Market Rally Faltering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The intermediate-term correction continues  to unfold.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, June 17, 2019

Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest odds for who who is likely to be the next tory leader have continued to narrow in Boris Johnson's favour with the latest price of just 1.23 which is set against 1.84 a week ago, 2.98 a week before that, 4+ a month before and 5+ a few months ago. So the train for betting on Boris Johnson has left the station as the risk vs reward is just not there. I don't take bets where the return on a £100 risk is just £23, even if I am pretty sure the bet will come good because risk vs reward is one of the primary rules for successful trading as iterated in my January 2019 article on the real secrets for successful trading. The Real Secret for Successful Trading

Monday, June 17, 2019

Strap Yourselves In – Gold May Take Off Like A Rocketship / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down for the last three years. Well, at least that is the impression you would get based upon their “sentiment.”

But, in fact, all gold has been doing for the last three years is move sideways. In other words, it has been consolidating. Yet, during that consolidation, sentiment among investors has soured to where it is akin to a bear market.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

Monday, June 17, 2019

King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the biggest movers of the day on Friday was the US dollar.  The US stock market appeared very weak prior to the opening bell and precious metals, especially gold, appeared to be rocketing higher.  Almost right from the open, the markets washed out the fear and changed direction. The US dollar did the same thing.

This renewed strength in the US dollar continues to baffle foreign investors and foreign governments as they continue to try to support their economies and currencies against a stronger and more agile US economy and currency. Even as the US dollar strength is frustrating many investors, it is also attempting to keep a lid on traditional safe havens such as precious metals.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) / Personal_Finance / Land Rover

By: HGR

In our latest video we diagnose what to do if your Land Rover Discovery Sports automatic Tail Gate stops working, stops opening and closing with the click of your key fob. The first check to do is to make sure your batteries got enough charge to power the tail gate motor as a possible quick fix solution to tail gate not working issues.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Bears are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2007” while bulls are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2016”. In reality, the S&P today is most like 1967 (not quite what you would expect).

Various technical factors suggest that the medium term is bullish.

The short term is mixed, and such a politically-driven market environment certainly does not add to one’s confidence about making short term predictions. Focus on the data and facts. Don’t trade the news.

1. Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
2. Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
3. Technicals (short term): mixed

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Why Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Is Wrong on Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Ray Dalio is the thoughtful, somewhat controversial founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975.

While much of his writing is private, I (and many others) peruse every word we can of his and the Bridgewater team’s thinking. I find it to be some of the most interesting market commentary I read.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.

The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'

Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have surged powerfully over the past few weeks, challenging upleg highs.  Traders started returning to this small contrarian sector as gold blasted back above the psychologically-crucial $1300 line.  While such early-summer strength is atypical, gold miners’ technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals all support more gains to come.  Gold stocks need to mean revert to much-higher price levels.

Traders usually track gold-stock fortunes with this sector’s most-popular exchange-traded fund, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched in May 2006, this was the maiden gold-stock ETF.  That big first-mover advantage has helped propel GDX to sector dominance.  This week its net assets of $9.7b ran 46.5x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX is this sector’s leading benchmark.

And it sure didn’t look pretty in May, with traders wanting nothing to do with gold stocks.  GDX spent the great majority of last month languishing near its 200-day moving average.  Just a few weeks ago on May 29th, GDX closed at $20.42.  That was down 3.2% year-to-date, much worse than gold’s own slight 0.2% YTD decline.  The gold stocks were really out of favor, just like the metal they mine which fuels their profits.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The following chart illustrates that there is a strong inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold. When the Dollar rises, the gold price tends to fall and visa versa, it should not be surprising given that the Gold is priced in dollars. The only recent deviation from the correlation was October to December which coincided with stock market weakness i.e. SAFEHAVEN buying of the Dollar AND Gold. So the safe haven buying that gold bugs obsess over tends to be temporary at times of stock market stress.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Will the US Economy Fall into Recession? Or Will It Accelerate? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Is that not suspicious? We invite you to read our today’s article, which provide you with the valuable lessons from the 1990s expansion for the gold market and find out whether the US economy will die of old age.

Lessons from the 1990s Expansion for the Economy and the Gold Market

The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Unless the sky falls in the next few weeks, we will celebrate a new record in July. Is that not suspicious?

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock “launch” erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode

What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

After a period of economic prosperity, it is a given that eventually a period of economic decline will follow. This is a well known reality.

Since at least the early 80s there has been a period of great economic prosperity. Yes, there were many recessions during that period, however, as a whole it has been a prosperous period.

Now, there are many signs that we are likely to get a period of serious economic decline. The type that has not been seen in many a lifetime of those living today.