Thursday, January 03, 2019

Sri Lanka’s Short Term Outlook Is Hazy: Limited Pockets of Value Present / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dylan_Waller

Sri Lanka 2019-2020 Outlook: Neutral Outlook for the Equity Market/Looking Elsewhere

The recent political crisis in Sri Lanka, coupled with its less favorable external position, has resulted in the depreciation of its currency and sell off in the stock market this year. Moody’s downgraded Sri Lanka’s sovereign credit to B2, while other countries funding Sri Lanka previously announced concerns due to the rising political risks. These issues all came at a time when Sri Lanka’s economy was beginning to rebound somewhat from the lows of 2017, though growth has still not been able to break 4% in recent quarters. Poor Q3 performance further exacerbates economic concern for the market, which should now not see a meaningful rebound until 2020.  Sri Lanka’s external debt still remains a looming issue, and foreign exchange reserves have also been depleted somewhat in recent months compared to historical norms. FX reserves currently only cover around 3.8 months of imports and 54% of the country’s short term external debt. Notably, the increased political clarity seen in recent weeks will result in a gradual release of funding that was put on hold due to the political uncertainty, and paints a brighter economic picture. This would include funding from Japan, Millenium Challenge Corporation, and the IMF.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Stock Market Invstors Be Careful Going Into 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

With the start of a new year, some of these market studies are going to look at the stock market in 2018 and see what that implies for 2019.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Warning: The Stock Market Bounce Was a Head Fake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.

That reset will crash stocks.

We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Gold and Dow Jones Big Profits from Big Channels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

Big profits come from big swings within the long term channels. Here are the big channels for gold (GLD) and Dow Jones (INDU). Readtheticker has price data for 100+ years for the important securities.  The red arrows are points of interest. Gold holds support, demand present.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Money Metals 2019 Precious Metal Markets Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter 2019 with an opportunity to shine. Several major bullish drivers are lining up to start the New Year – including technical, fundamental, monetary, and political drivers.

Before delving into each of them, let’s consider where we’ve been over the past 12 months.

To be frank, 2018 wasn’t a particularly bright year for gold and silver prices. Gold will finish with a slight loss; silver with a larger loss just shy of 10%.

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Britain's Tortured Commuters Hit With Rail Fare Hikes / ConsumerWatch / Travel & Holidays

By: Adnaan_Walayat

Britain's tortured commuters have been hit with their annual new year rail fare price hikes of typically 3.2% as an automatic reward for the rail companies for delivering another year of anxiety inducing bad rail services, one of daily delays and cancellations with the rail companies ready with a string of worthless excuses as they play pass the parcel between themselves and network rail.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary focus of my in-depth analysis for January will continue to be on the UK housing market and I will seek to forecast the prospects for the US housing market for at least 2019, seeking to replicate the accuracy of my last US housing market 3 year trend forecast https://youtu.be/82ncGGgbhAk.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we near the end of 2018 and have recently witnessed an incredible price rotation in the US stock market, it is time for traders to take stock of the incredible opportunities that are set up for early 2019 and beyond. Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, has put together some truly incredible longer-term Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system charts that will help you understand and identify incredible opportunities that should play out in early 2019. We know you will not find this type of analysis anywhere else on the planet and we know just how valuable these charts are too skilled traders. So, get ready for some incredible moves – as impossible as they may seem.

Let’s get started with Crude Oil. This Monthly chart of Crude showing our ADL price modeling system is clearly indicating the first few months of 2019 will include increased price volatility. One thing to pay attention to as we review these charts are the BLUE TRIANGLES, which is where we asked the ADL predictive modeling system for a detailed analysis, and the CYAN, YELLOW, and WHITE DASHED LINES, which is where the ADL system is showing us the highest probability price outcome into the future. On this chart, we can see that the predicted price levels of the past have been relatively close to where the price has closed on each monthly price bar. Going into the future, we can see 3~4 months of price volatility between $50 and $65 (roughly) with rotating higher/lower price objectives. We interpret this as greatly increased price volatility with the potential of supply events disrupting global expectations in oil. These could be intermediate-term price rotations that keep the price within our $50~65 price range, or they could be large range, very dramatic price rotations as a result of massive global supply events.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Gold Looking Back, Looking Ahead 2019 – How Low Can Gold Price Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Each year we are treated to calls for gold’s next big move. We heard it last year; and the year before, too. And the year before that. It may not be a broken record , but it is the same song.

Predictions for gold’s price are more than guesses, but they might as well be just guesses. That’s unfortunate, because no small amount of time is spent trying to analyze gold. And it is time wasted. 

The analysis is faulty. Not only is it faulty, it is sometimes overly complex. The complexity exacerbates the problem. How do you analyze something that cannot be analyzed?

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Gold - Silver Ratio 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 2nd article in a series of 4 articles that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
2. Gold - Silver Ratio
3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
   

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

What Will the Stock Market do in 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

What will the U.S. stock market do in 2019? It depends on who you ask.

1. Wall Street analysts are generally bullish. The average analysts’ year-end 2019 prediction is 3000 for the S&P. Analysts have a bullish bias.
2. The media is bearish (again), as they are every year. The media (financial media, social media, bloggers) have a bearish bias because bad news sells. It’s in their interest to sensationalize everything and scare the crap out of you. Scary headlines = more attention & ad revenue.

But as always, here at Bull Markets we try to follow the data and remain as objective as possible. We don’t always get it right, but following the data = a much better success % vs. random guessing.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Weight Loss Secrets 2019 - How to Lose 20lbs of FAT in 3 Months! / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness

By: HGR

Happy New Year! Now is the time to start preparing for your Spring and Summer holidays by aiming to shed excess fat. Where in this video I illustrate 3 key components / strategies towards achieving a healthy sustainable weight loss, especially as most of the weight loss programmes contain a critical flaw that this strategy aims to solve namely that the objective is NOT to lose weight but rather to lose FAT! Which is the primary reason why most traditional diets fail as they focus on heavily restricted calorie intakes and cardiac, which in my opinion is a recipe for disaster.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Warning: A Lehman Event is About to Hit Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Last week’s rally was the result of multiple interventions.

“Someone” took advantage of the extremely light holiday volume to ramp markets higher via indiscriminant buying. The media is trying to portray this action as the result of “investors” or “value seekers” but neither of those groups was involved.

This was a clear and obvious buying program made by “someone” who didn’t want stocks to officially enter a bear market by falling 20%. One of the key “tells” that this was manipulation is that underperformers like banks and homebuilders didn’t lead the rally.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Fake Markets and Return of the “Plunge Protection Team” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s amazing what passes as a market these days.

Stocks rallied during the Christmas week, and the mainstream financial press would like you to believe bargain hunters swooped in after the weeks of heavy selling to grab some deals. The truth is there are very few actual people still evaluating the merits of publicly traded companies.

The markets are driven by programmed trading and central planning. The artificial nature of markets was on full display last week.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Silver Price Starts A Breakout Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Watch Silver, folks. This quiet shiny metal is starting a move that could be very foretelling of global market concerns and risks. Early on December 26, 2018, Silver broke through recent resistance, to the upside, with a relatively large 2.8%+ upside move. Why is this so important to traders? Because Silver is the “sleeper metal” that is typically the last to react to global economic concerns. Once Silver starts to move to the upside with a renewed bullish trend, we believe this move would indicate that bigger players are starting to accumulate Silver as a safe haven for future economic concerns/crisis events.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump and Britain's countdown to BrExit Independence (29th of March 2019) proved to be the weapons of mass financial distraction of 2018 that dominated politics and the financial markets. Both born out of 2016 elections seeking to upset the status quo of an elite that had taken their electorates for granted for decades that culminated in the failure of politicians to hold the banking crime syndicate to account for the financial crisis which ushered in a decade of economic depression for most of the electorate.

In the UK a Remainer Prime Minister has been determined to subvert the will of the British people with most Westminister politicians encouraging calls for a further chaos inducing Second Referendum that the establishment are certain to engineer to deliver a REMAIN outcome as illustrated by the economic collapse propaganda surging out of the Bank of England downwards.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Gold’s Leading Indicators Looking Better / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although yours truly has yet to completely jump on the bull bandwagon (which has revved up recently), I cannot ignore the positive fundamental and technical developments for precious metals.

On the fundamental side, the market is essentially pricing in no hikes for 2019 and the start of rate cuts in 2020. For Gold, that is a huge improvement from just a few months ago.

Monday, December 31, 2018

The Bitcoin BTC Collapse of 2018, Trend Outlook 2019 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

2018 was the year the bitcoin crypto bubble burst that witnessed the bitcoin price first collapse to a floor of $6000, from which each attempted bounce failed to generate any follow through, and the longer the failure for a breakout higher continued then the greater the probability that the price would eventually break lower, below the $6000 floor. Which is what transpired during November that saw Bitcoin plunge to a new low of $3,100 by Mid December, a far cry from the fantasy of first revisiting $20k and then $50k that a naive 'manipulated' Bitcoin community had pinned their hopes and dreams on whilst immersed in an endless feedback loop of perma bull bitcoin pump mania commentary, that was the mainstay of the internet during 2018, whilst the manipulators were dumping their holdings onto the naive players. Just like what the pump and dumpers have been doing with penny stocks for over 100 years!