Monday, March 26, 2018

Labour Sheffield City Council Halts Tree Fellings Ahead of May Local Elections / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The Labour controlled Sheffield City Council announced a halt to the controversial street trees felling programme today that had seen escalating protestor opposition on the streets of Sheffield against the felling of healthy trees that followed the revelation that half of Sheffield's street trees would be felled during the life time of the 25 year PFI contract with Amey..

Since the resumption of felling a month ago the streets of Sheffield have been witness to very heavy police and security presence at felling sites, with upwards of 30 police officers and 20 Hiviz security all towards enabling felling if a single tree. Which has galvanised the people of Sheffield to come out and protest in their hundreds each day against the felling of healthy street trees that tends to result in multiple arrests at each felling site on a daily basis.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Hi-Ho Silver! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

If the latest COT report for silver gets any more bullish than the one released on March 23rd, commercial traders will have to go ‘net long!’   As it is, they reduced their ‘net short’ position to the lowest number in many years, down to just 4,000 contracts – barely 2% of the total open interest!  This is bullish action!   As recently as January 16th the number of ‘net short’ positions was 50,000, and the percentage of open interest was 26%.  (Charts are courtesy Goldchartsrus.com unless specified).

Monday, March 26, 2018

Trade War and Silver CoT – Details and Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case?

Let’s start with the first question. Why did gold rally in the final part of the previous week? The first reason was likely the increased tension regarding interest rates and Powell’s first Fed meeting. This was likely to cause only temporary volatility and it seems that it did. Based on how mining stocks performed relative to the gold market, it certainly seems that the precious metals market wants to go down. But, there’s another fundamental development that triggered another rally in gold (to a smaller extent) – the trade war. This term is too far-fetched – it’s just a trade battle for now. Let’s focus on the practical implications for the precious metals market. In short, just like a few threats between the U.S. and North Korea, the trade tensions between the U.S. and China are a geopolitical event.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Stocks Set to Bounce Back, but Bulls' Worries Far From Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their sell-off on Friday, as investors reacted to global stocks markets move down, trade war and monetary policy tightening fears. It was some kind of a perfect bearish storm that sent stock prices tumbling on Thursday, and then on Friday. As medium-term bearish case unfolds, we see indexes getting closer to their early February lows. Will they break lower?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.8% and 2.1% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained very bearish following Thursday's sell-off. The S&P 500 index broke below the level of 2,600, as it got closer to its February 9 local low of 2,532.69. It currently trades 9.9% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 2.4% on Friday.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Minding the Trade Gap: Gold Breakout, EURUSD chaotic, USDJPY Continuation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Large tax cuts and spending increases enacted by Congress and the Trump administration are poised to push fiscal deficits above $1 trillion in coming years. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co., has dubbed this the “square peg and round hole of fiscal and trade policies”—it’s nearly impossible for a nation to close its trade deficit while widening its fiscal deficit and expecting consumers to keep spending. Ultimately, “fiscal policy will dominate trade policy,” Mr. Feroli said. “Tariffs and other trade restrictions will be insufficient to lean against the overwhelming force.”

Worsening the situation is the fact that U.S. tax revenue declined in February and government spending rose, as the share of wages withheld for taxes dipped as a result of the tax cut passed by Congress late last year.

Monday, March 26, 2018

The Future Is Uncertain And The End Is Always Near / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

Spending a week driving around a western state 1,700 miles from my stomping grounds in Pennsylvania provides a different perspective on the level of economic, social and political degradation impacting the country. With a daily commute along the crumbling, crummy, gridlocked deathtrap roadways into West Philadelphia, the squalor and decomposition of our civilization is self-evident.

I live in a corrupt state with the highest gasoline taxes, highest tolls, massively underfunded government pension liability, failing government run public schools, suburban sprawl dotted with ghost malls, vacant industrial parks, and urban ghetto shitholes plagued by drugs, murder, welfare mentality, excessive taxes, and left wing politicians.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Time To Buy Gold As A 'Safe Haven' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the GLD as a proxy for gold. I believe that the GLD can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GLD. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Gold Cycle Anomaly & USD Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: SurfCity

Gold update: While I don’t care much for Cycle anomalies (i.e. short of long cycle), I am not going to fight them. Therefore, I am very bullish on Gold given the short ICL that has been left behind but the yellow metal has disappointed before so we still need to be cautious until the next resistance between 1360-1377 is taken out. The next week or 2 are critical, IMO and Gold needs to show some bullish follow through.  My first 5+ year Weekly clearly shows that Gold has been forming a 5 year Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and should explode higher once the over head resistance I have mentioned is taken out.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Stock Market Ready for a Rebound? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 should now continue until May.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, March 26, 2018

Stock Market Complacency Reigns Supreme / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

I had intended to post part III of my interest rate series, however market conditions dictate that I post views on the current market.  This market is now communicating that it is at high risk.  For two months now,  I have been advocating a strategic retreat.  Head for the sidelines and watch the action with an unemotional detachment.  The market is now sounding the alarm and one should be on high alert for a downside acceleration.

Plunger’s Bullet Points 

Here are the main points I have presented over the past few weeks:

1. The market has been in a final Phase III since the Trump election- it lasted 16 months.
2. Secondary Reactions rarely occur in Phase III- Therefore, any major decline could very well be the end of the bull market and not just another correction.
3. Dec 2017-Jan 2018 was a classic buyers capitulation which traced out as a steeple top in many indexes.
4. The proper course of action for investors should be to execute a strategic retreat and head towards the sidelines. One could redeploy capital once the market resolves itself according to DOW Theory methodology.
5. Rising rates are in the process of bursting the largest credit bubble in history.
6. The bursting of the bubble will usher in a Post Bubble Contraction.
7. Gold stock bull markets are most robust within the confines of a PBC.
8. Phase I of a new bull market in the gold stocks began in Jan 2016.
9. Phase II started in Dec 2016, however initial action is characterized by further consolidation and lethargic action resulting in investor doubt and discouragement.
10.  Excessive bearishness in the gold sector is unwarranted despite weak looking price action.

The largest financial bubble in history is concluding and one should prepare his bomb shelter and know how to protect oneself.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

SY Police Hunting and Arresting Bunnies at Sheffield Street Tree Felling Protests / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

March has witnessed a further escalation in the aggressive policing of Sheffield's street tree felling protests with multiple arrests taking place each day. In this video of events on Thornsett Road the Police hunt down and arrest a Bunny which is a protestor who attempts to prevent a felling by getting close to a cordoned off street tree. However this arrest is controversial as the protestor may have had permission to be in the neighbouring garden to the tree as the video illustrates.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Forget Privacy, the REAL Big Tech Scandal Concerns Ad Fraud / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted in mid-2017, Big Tech is in BIG trouble.

There are multiple scandals brewing in this space. And the invasion/ selling of/ handing over of private data is one of the more minor ones.

That larger scandal concerns fraudulent online advertising.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

What Happens After the Stock Market Crashes on Thursday and Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market tanked on Thursday (-2.5%) and Friday (-2%). This is rare. Most of the “down on Thursday and Friday” historical cases saw the S&P fall a little on Thursday and accelerate the decline in Friday.

Nevertheless, this is a bearish sign for next Monday but a short-medium term bullish signal for the stock market. Here’s what happens next when the stock market falls more than 2% on Thursday and on Friday.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Doritos Win £500 Every Day No Longer 100% Win Rate! Current Probability is... / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

The Doritos instant win promotion has been running for just over a month now with a month to go. Entries made using the codes off the back of the crisp packets during the first month yielded a 100% success rate, i.e. you had a 100% chance of WINNING a prize that ranges from free packets of crisps to upto £500 per day! So find out our tally of wins to date as well as what we estimate the current probability of winning a prize being in our latest Doritos video.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Stock Market Analysis & Warning In Layman’s Terms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As you likely know, the stock market, trading, and even long-term investing are not easy. That’s why in this post we want to make the complex simple for you. We will do this in a way that will give you that “Eureka!” moment regarding knowing what the stock market is doing now, and where it is headed over the next 12-36 months.

Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite-size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill / Politics / Saudi Arabia

By: Jim_Willie_CB

China is working a strategy with the Saudis. Since the last months of 2017, the Jackass has been firm that the ARAMCO deal for IPO stock introduction might never occur. And if it did, then Hong Kong might be the only location for the IPO launch. It seems that disclosure and transparency is non-existent to this Arab kingdom. Now the stock listing might be in Riyadh and nowhere else. Imagine the risk to brokerage houses if the truth comes out, that the Saudi oil reserves are only 20% to 40% of the disclosed amount, a grand lie and deep fraud. Such will not stop China from investing privately in ARAMCO, since it would serve two purposes. It would enable huge diverse participation in the Saudi Economy, which contains a second treasure trove of minerals. It would enable the Chinese to purchase Saudi oil in RMB terms for payment. In the last month, the Russians confirmed an equally sized investment stake in ARAMCO. If the Chinese sit on the ARAMCO board of directors, they will surely convince the Saudis to alter the payment method in approval. It could be a primary part of the deal.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

SPX Wedge Breaks and Double Gaps: Capatulation but GOLD is Coiling for Breakout / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Arb Cap writes: The stock market continued its correction lower with a sharp downmove the last nine days (12 to 22 March). The S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq 100 lost more than five percent, while the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 fell 3.76% and 2.77%, respectively. The Dow Industrials (red) was the first back to negative territory with a move below the zero line on Monday, while the S&P 500 (black) and S&P Mid-Cap 400 (blue) followed suit on Thursday. The S&P Small-Cap 600 and Nasdaq 100 remain positive year-to-date.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

The Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Aren’t Bearish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Fed hiked interest rates this Wednesday. This is far from being the last rate hike in this rate hike cycle.

We’ve already shown that rising interest rates aren’t consistently bearish for the stock market. We can look at this idea from another angle.

If rising interest rates are bearish for the stock market, then the stock market should fall after the last rate hike in a rate hike cycle (i.e. the economy and stock market should tank after the Fed has increased interest rates by “too much”).

Saturday, March 24, 2018

TRADE WAR / Politics / Protectionism

By: Gary_Tanashian

It has in the past been “the financial crisis”, “the Euro crisis”, “Greek debt”, “Italian banks”, “the fiscal cliff”, “Brexit” and so on. Every one of those events an extension of Keynesianism and its debt-leveraged monetary magic tricks. But now the buzz phrase is “trade war”, a different kind of animal.

The brewing trade war with China is different. With every damn one of the events noted above we here in the anti-hype environs of nftrh.com (and before it, biiwii.com) have tried to maintain perspective about why it was occurring (Thing 1, which we had anticipated in essence if not in the exact way it played out) or why they would not prove long-term bearish or bring on the end of the world (Things 2-6).

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has firmed above $1300 in recent days and is holding comfortably above $1300 for now. We think the market will break to the upside sometime this year. The question is when. Here are 3 things to watch that will tell us if Gold is on the cusp of that break-out soon or later.

First, keep your eye on Gold’s close at the end of next week. It’s not only the end of the week and month but also the end of the quarter. While Gold has traded above $1350 multiple times in the past two years, it has not made a quarterly close above $1330 since 2012. Since this is a quarterly time frame, we would need to see a close above $1340 or even $1345 to mark a significant breakout. If Gold can make such a close next Friday then the odds are good that it could break above $1375 fairly soon.