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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Bitcoin Trading Alert: Starting Point of Decline Not Far? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

The treatment of Bitcoin by asset management firms is slowly changing. The digital currency is by no means as popular as traditional assets, however, investment companies sometimes approach Bitcoin as a new asset class, one that might be on its way to maturity. Money Morning cites a report on Bitcoin by Needham & Co.:

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Currencies

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Forex Trading: ECB Policy Could Weigh on Euro / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

easyMarkets writes: When the European Central Bank (ECB) held its monetary policy meeting on September 8th , it left all policy rates unchanged. The main refinancing interest rate, the marginal lending facility rate and the main deposit interest rate were kept steady at the current levels of 0.00%, 0.25%, and negative 0.40%, respectively. This will likely have a long-term impact on forex traders that have exposure in the EUR/USD as it ultimately indicates lower price valuations in the weeks and months ahead.

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Has the Silver Bullet Run Out of Fire Power? / Currencies / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

Commodity prices and especially those of precious metals have been impressive this year. The price of Gold and that of Silver have rallied significantly since the start of the year and the current indicators seem to point towards a continuous rally for the rest of 2016, albeit at a slower rate.

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Currencies

Monday, September 19, 2016

War on Cash Turns to $20, $50, and $100 Bills / Currencies / War on Cash

By: MoneyMetals

Harvard professor and economist Ken Rogoff is once again leading the chorus of high-level academics and officials who declare cash is only for criminals. He made his case in a recent Wall Street Journal editorial called the “Sinister Side of Cash.” The solution, he declares, is to simply get rid of anything but the smallest bank notes.

In his vision, drug dealers, human traffickers, and tax cheats are everywhere, but they are reliant on cash. Our benevolent central planners can largely incapacitate them by ridding society of anything larger than a $10 bill.

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

A Common Sense Regulatory Framework for Digital Currency / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

John Dunham writes: The phrase, horror vacui, or nature abhors a vacuum, was attributed to Aristotle, who suggested that nature contains no vacuums because the denser surrounding material would immediately fill any void.  This physical postulate is often applied to the idea of government regulation.  If something is not regulated (or in many cases highly regulated) then it is indisputable that some government will step into the void.  In the case of digital currency and/or cryptocurrency, the concept of horror vacui is in full swing as governments from the European Union to the United States to China are all proposing broad regulations on the development and operation of digital currency markets.  This is on top of local court rulings, such as that made by a Miami-Dade Florida circuit court judge who ruled that Bitcoin was not a currency.

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Financial Intervention - The Monkey and The Fish / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“Kindly let me help you or you’ll drown, said the monkey to the fish as he placed him safely up the tree.” – Unknown

The financial system (mistaken for the economy) is so bloated with risk that any number of events could trigger an explosion that would reach much further than anyone could imagine – causing irreparable damage.

Because of the size and the massive dependence on the institutions (who have evolved like a cancer from big finance), the resulting carnage will reach out much further than the primary institutions.

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Currencies

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Bitcoin Price Back Down / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

 

The current banking system is global, at least in theory, but it definitely seems that the term “global” does not actually apply to all parts of the payments space the way we would like it to. International wire transfers still tend to be slow and costly. It is perhaps irritating that sending an email takes seconds but sending $5 abroad is slow, expensive or altogether impossible. This is why companies like Western Union still charge hefty fees for overseas transfers. As it turns out, Bitcoin and other digital currencies might offer a way forward for making the remittance industry more accessible. On Quartz, we read:

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Currencies

Friday, September 09, 2016

USD/JPY Could Be Supported by BOJ Policy Stance / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Submissions

easyMarkets writes: When the Bank of Japan released its last monetary policy statement, many analysts expected that they would follow suit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the rest of the Japanese government by releasing a large stimulus plan. Prime Minister Abe’s plan gave a 28 trillion yen stimulus plan to bolster the economy. However, the Bank of Japan did not follow suit. Instead, they decided on increasing dollar-lending and exchange traded fund purchases. Despite negative interest rates, no changes were made to the base interest rate or to the current bond-purchase program.

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Currencies

Friday, September 09, 2016

2017 Will Be a Good Year for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : If you go back to the 1990s, during the Clinton years, the US followed an explicit strong dollar policy. Every time you got Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in front of a microphone, he said the US had a strong dollar policy.

And guess what? The dollar was strong.

What are the benefits of a strong dollar?

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Currencies

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Bitcoin Is Just a Bit Player / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: MoneyMetals

Over the last few years, so-called "crypto-currencies" – digital equivalents of a monetary exchange unit, have been all the rage. The most well-known in the category, Bitcoin, has had quite a run.

Starting out as a "virtual penny stock" it rose in 2014 to the elevated height of $1,150, before crashing back to earth. This "electronic currency" is created and stored in a computerized "wallet." Purchases and sales are made via a "blockchain" which keeps a memory of every transaction conducted. Private keys (supposedly) provide assurance that a Bitcoin holder's account is safe.

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Currencies

Friday, August 26, 2016

EUR-USD pattern still on track / Currencies / Euro

By: Ken_Ticehurst

The Euro has spent the last year consolidating against the US Dollar, however it appears as though this long consolidation was just a breather in a longer term down trend. Our updated daily forecast pattern below, shows how we think this consolidation will end during the next few months.

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Currencies

Saturday, August 20, 2016

The Chimera Of Stable Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Since the early 19th century, economists have consistently preached that the value of money or its purchasing power should be stable or relatively stable. David Ricardo, in 1817, said: “A currency, to be perfect, should be absolutely invariable in value.”

According to this view, money as a unit of account should be equivalent to a yardstick measuring an immutable distance. Over the last century, this view of money has led economists to suggest that prices, reflecting the purchasing power of money, as measured by a price index [1], should also be stable and that central banks should actively interfere with the market economy to bring stability to such an index. The U.S. Central bank has essentially been following such a policy since its inception in 1913. Price stability is inscribed in the Maastricht Treaty, and the goal of hitting a 2% CPI inflation target is a variant of this widely-held view.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

USDU - An Important Perspective on the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

We started following this US dollar index about a year or so ago which has a more equal weighting of different currencies than the $USD. Even though I don’t post it much this Alternative US dollar index has some very interesting Chartology on it which may be giving us an important clue as to the intentions of the Dollar .

If you recall the Standard US dollar index ($USD) was testing a major inflection point in May around the 92 area earlier this year. It did finally bottom but left some unfinished business behind. This is the daily chart I was following at the time for the USDU which shows the H&S top in place and the decline that took the price action down to the low at the 25.50 area. From that low the USDU began a decent rally but couldn’t trade above the neckline extension line at reversal point #2 before the bears took charge again. The bulls were able to stop the decline at reversal point #3 and a laborious rally took the USDU back up to the top of the trading range where the neckline extension line came into play again along with the 200 day moving average.

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Currencies

Thursday, August 11, 2016

The Colombian Peso Going Higher / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Austin_Galt

The Colombian peso has increased value against the US dollar as laid out in previous analysis, The Colombian Peso!, produced on 21st February 2016 when the USDCOP was trading at 3.358,500. Price is now 2.974,000.
I expect the USDCOP currency pair to continue its decline so let’s review the daily chart.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Bitcoin after Recent Decline / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: short speculative positions; stop-loss at $657; initial target at $527.

The customers of the recently hacked Bitfinex exchange will most likely share the losses resulting from the theft, we read on the Wall Street Journal website:

Bitfinex, the digital-currency exchange that lost $65 million to hackers last week, plans to spread the losses among all its users, including those not directly affected by the hack.

The Hong Kong-based digital-currency exchange said in a statement Sunday that the losses from the theft would be shared, or “generalized across all accounts and assets” of its clients, with each taking a loss of around 36%.

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Currencies

Saturday, August 06, 2016

Why Stability is Not what Bitcoin Needs and Why Big Business Should Move Into It / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

Shannon Lowery writes: It is constantly spoken that Bitcoin is not viable because it is not stable.

Stability, from my view point, is not what Bitcoin needs.

Bitcoin needs appreciation.

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Currencies

Friday, August 05, 2016

The Blockchain - Cold, Hard Cash Will Soon Be A Distant Memory / Currencies / War on Cash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The ‘blockchain’ technology, the very basis on which the bitcoins were created, is likely to become the backbone of the future digitization of money. The importance of the technology was asserted in the 16th Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector; a three-day convention which was held on June 1st through June 3rd in Washington, D.C.

The conference was held under the tutelage of the FED, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

The Colors of Money: Andrew Jackson Still Fights the Banking War / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

This year marks the 101st anniversary of Andrew Jackson rolling over and over in his grave.

Back in 1915, the brand new Federal Reserve pasted the 7th President's likeness on its first $10 debt note – a sharp slap to the President who fought and won his famously bitter battle to destroy the “corrupting monster” of central banking.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

Bitcoin Price Flashes Important Signal / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: short speculative positions; stop-loss at $657; initial target at $527.

Does Bitcoin correlate to gold? This is the kind of question Bitcoin enthusiasts pose to themselves. As it turns out, the question might be surprising to a lot of people who claim that the two are very similar. In an article on CoinDesk, we read:

An analysis of historical market data conducted by ARK Invest's Chris Burniske failed to illustrate a strong relationship between the two.

Burniske's analysis revealed that when examined on a weekly basis, the one-year rolling correlation of bitcoin and gold's returns was positive for nearly the entire period between 30th December, 2011, and 20th June, 2014.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

US Dollar Analysis And New Trading Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Investor optimism in stocks is becoming more widespread. Last week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 101, which is the highest level since December of 2013. The trading sentiment composite has moved to a “Sell Signal” and last week saw an 11 on the VIX.  Excessive optimism is universal.

We are entering an interesting time of the year for investors.  Is this stock market going to break out to the upside and rally to further new highs, or will this latest lull be followed by a painful reversal of fortune?   Historically, the August/September timeframe is the “Danger Zone” for the stock market.

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