Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Technical Update On IEF And TLT / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Guy_Lerner
When we last looked at longer term Treasury yields, I stated that longer term Treasury yields were likely to undergo a secular trend change from down to up, but I had reservations because significant resistance was overhead, sentiment was too bullish for higher yields, and Treasury yields were greatly overbought. Honestly, last week I was not sure which way the bond market was going to go but I did offer up a game plan. This article will review the game plan that now have me more constructive on bonds or bearish on Treasury yields.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression which triggered a series of panic interest rate cuts all the way to 0.5% by March 2009 and they have stayed there right into the start of 2010. This in-depth analysis is third in a series of analysis that seeks to generate accurate forecasts for UK Inflation, GDP Growth and Interest Rates for 2010 and beyond. The whole analysis and implications of which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the completed scenario in your email in-box.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
UK, U.S. and Euro Interest Rate Trends Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to receive the final analysis and forecast in your email in box.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
British Pound Currency Trends and the UK Base Interest Rate / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Improving UK Mortgage Lending Feeding the House Prices Bounce / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Monday, January 11, 2010
LIBOR / UK Base Interest Rate Spread Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
UK Interest Rates and GDP Growth Trend Relationship / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Bill Gross Say FED Will Exit Easy Monetary Policy, Quantitative Easing in March 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: G_Abraham
The latest PIMCO newsletter suggests that 2010 will be year of caution and change. And yet he gives ample suggestions to the coming holocaust in financial markets if things do not go as planned.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Supported by Strong Seasonal Factors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market remained range bound last week. The New Year started off with a full slate of economic data, but the impact on the longer maturities was minimal. It looks like we have a stalemate between weak fundamentals that are supportive and supply concerns that present a headwind for the market for now. Meanwhile – in spite of the weak fundamentals – the risk trade continues to hum along. The market action on Friday was prime example that at this point one can throw the fundamentals out the window and the best strategy is to just buy anything you can get your dirty paws on.
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Saturday, January 09, 2010
UK interest Rates and M4 Money Supply Relationship / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Do UK Interest Rates Lead or Lag Inflation? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Could the British Pound Bear a Fresh Slug of Quantitative Easing? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Adrian_Ash
Rearranging the Deck chairs on the QEII -
The BANK of ENGLAND's asset purchase program – better known as "quantitative easing" – was maintained at its £200 billion limit ($318bn) at this week's policy meeting in London.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Bank of England UK Quantitative Easing Money Printing to Hit £275 Billion 2010 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England cut UK interest to a historic low of 0.5% in March 2009 for the objective of boosting the economy so as to enable it to SELL government bonds, however this did not work as bond auctions started to FAIL in March, which therefore triggered the Bank of England hitting the panic button and igniting Quantitative Easing or Quantitative Inflation, having received the green light from the Government a few months earlier.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Cutting Through the Fed U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Claptrap / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Larson
There’s a real debate waging on Wall Street. Just like that famous scene from the 1974 movie Chinatown, where Faye Dunaway’s Evelyn Mulwray goes back and forth saying “She’s my daughter … She’s my sister,” today’s pundits keep debating the Fed. “The Fed will tighten” … “The Fed won’t tighten” … “The Fed will tighten” — the commentary shifts with each new data point that crosses the transom.
Friday, January 08, 2010
UK Government Gilt Bond Selling is Spirited, Buying is Muted / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
The Fed Did NOT Cause the Credit Crunch, It Was Securitization: Here Is Proof! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Andrew_Butter
In Ben’s big speech the other day he said that it wasn’t the Fed’s fault, and that only 5% of the problem was caused by Greenspan dropping the base rate.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Baum Makes Mincemeat of Bernanke's Twisted Zero Interest Rate Logic / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Ivory Tower Doesn’t Have a Mortgage, Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum makes mincemeat out of Bernanke's twisted defense of Fed policy.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds At Risk Following Fannie and Freddie Debt Monetization / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The background noise has been considerable. The US Congress, the august body that often passes legislation without reading it, evaluates a new initiative to reinstitute the Glass Steagall Act. Pass it, don't read it! Great idea! In the wisdom from post-Depression seven decades ago, the same Congress imposed firewall separation among the commercial banks, the brokerage houses, and the insurance firms in order to prevent systemic financial sector failure. That is precisely what happened in the last two years, without proper recognition or diagnosis, except by this and some analysts. Insolvent systems do not spring back to life with grandiose infusions of phony money and complete covers for fraud. They remain insolvent.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Bank of England Quantitative Easing Gilts Market Smoke and Mirrors Dangerous Game / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's actions throughout 2008 and 2009 have shown that it's primary objective is to massage the UK Government Bond market. The evidence for this is in the fact that the vast majority of the £200 billion of Q,E, has been utilised for the purpose of monetizing government debt i.e. buying gilts to prevent Gilt auction failures and higher yields.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Why is the U.S. Dollar Rising, Treasury Bond Market Failure 2010? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: G_Abraham
Now am not a trader nor do I rely on charts but those who do, tell me that dollar has broken a “falling wedge” and is all set to rally a great deal in the coming weeks. Most reaserch houses have put in dollar targets of anywhere between 78 and 83.
JP Morgan: 78
Morgan Stanley 82
CLSA 83
GS: They still cant believe dollar is rallying let alone leaving a target.