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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: EWI

Those who are familiar with the Elliott wave model for analyzing and forecasting financial markets know that a main trend takes the form of five waves.

Thus, when the fifth wave is complete, a trend in the opposite direction is set to begin.

Another insight into the Wave Principle that's relevant to the present discussion is that corrections often end at the terminus of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree of trend.

If that sounds like a mouthful, hold on, you're about to see a market example that'll make it plain as day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we start moving into the Q1:2021 earnings season, we need to be aware of the risks associated with the volatility often associated with earnings data and unknowns.  Nonetheless, there are other factors that appear to be present in current trends which suggest earnings may prompt a moderately strong upside breakout rally – again.

One key factor is that the US markets are already starting to price in forwarding expectations related to a reflation economy – a post-COVID acceleration in activity, consumer participation, and manufacturing.  Secondarily, we must also consider the continued stimulus efforts, easy monetary policy from the US Fed, and the continued trending related to the 12+ month long COVID-19 recovery rally. 

In some ways, any damage to the economy related to COVID-19 may have already happened well over 6+ months ago.  Certainly, there are other issues we are still dealing with and recovering from, but the strength of the US economy since May/June of 2020 has been incredible.  When we combine the strength of the economic recovery with the extended support provided by the US Fed and US government stimulus/policy efforts, we are left with only one conclusion:  the markets will likely continue to rally until something stops this trend.

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Housing-Market

Friday, April 16, 2021

What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: MoneyMetals

Anyone who says inflation isn’t a problem hasn’t tried shopping for a new home recently.

Housing costs are skyrocketing. The median sales price of existing homes has spiked 16% over the past 12 months (from $270,400 to $313,000) – the fastest pace in 15 years.

The real estate market is being pressured not only by a low inventories of houses listed for sale, but also by rising prices for construction materials.

Home builders must deal with a massive 200% increase in lumber costs since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the National Association of Home Builders, lumber’s elevated price adds about $24,000 to the final quote on a typical new single-family home.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost touching 16 to close the week, VIX peeked higher yesterday only to reverse back down. Nice try but if you look at the put/call ratio turning down simulatenously, the alarm bells are far from ringing.

The S&P 500 rise of late isn‘t without its good share of non-confirmations though. The ones seen in Russell 2000 and emerging markets got a fresh company in the corporate credit markets. No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.

If you look at the put/call ratio again, its lows throughout Mar and Apr haven‘t been reaching the really exuberant levels of prior months, hinting at a less steep path of S&P 500 gains. And what about the volume print as stocks went about making new highs? Not encouraging either, and it‘s not that rising yields would be causing trouble:

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Companies

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors / Companies / BlockChain

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The institutional investors froze out the retail investors, I tried to buy the stock around a target price of about $350 for the first half hour of trading without success, no stock available as my following video illustrates. I view coinbase as a high risk long-term all or nothing stock, if you don't understand what that means then first read my recent article in-depth analysis on how to invest in high risk stocks (How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond) that has first been made available to patrons who support my work.

So coinbase closed at $328, which is better than if it closed at $428, though in the long-run the current price should not make much difference, i.e. if the price increases 10 fold or goes to zero so the few percent difference does not matter much at the start in ones high risk investment that gives exposure to a crypto stock that should be still around a decade from now and unlike crypto currencies can be held within a tax free wrapper such as an ISA or SIPP.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep defying gravity. But the corporate credit markets are sending a gentle warning sign as they failed to move higher in unison on Friday.

Given the Fed support and liquidity injections talked on Friday:

(…)   the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.

The spanner in the works proved to be long-dated Treasuries as these gave up all intraday gains, and closed in a non-bullish fashion. The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50%  figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday – and so did industrials and technology, all without tech heavyweights‘ help. Utilities and consumer staples went mostly sideways, disregarding the danger of yields about to rise again.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

While I cannot tell you with certainty that we are about to see a market melt-up, I can tell you that the setup is now in place to melt up to the 4400SPX region through the spring.

Before I go into my expectations, there are a few issues I would like to address, which seem to almost always come up in the comments section to my articles.

Many of you have taken strong exception to the fact that I really do not bother with the news. Your perspectives are often based upon your personal experience of seeing the markets move when news is announced. So, you assume that the substance of the news is always the driver of the market move. And, this makes you view my perspective as quite untenable.

So, allow me to explain my perspective in a bit more detail, and maybe you will begin to understand.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength / Stock-Markets / Metals & Mining

By: Donald_W_Dony

Sector performance within the present bull market has largely replicated an historical pattern. Over the past 12 years, the rise and eventual outperformance over the benchmark indexes (i.e. TSX and S&P 500), of specific industry groups has developed starting with technology and consumer discretionary sectors in 2009 and carrying through to the current sector of base metals.

The normal progression of performance in industry groups, beginning with a bear market low, through a gradual recovery and into a full bull market and then with a final cresting high, is illustrated in Chart 1.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my most recent investing in AI tech stocks series focused on the remaining AI stocks on my list following the Top 5 in my last article. However the whole of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work:

AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021

  • AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained
  • Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State
  • Post Pandemic Summer 2021 Social Unrest ?
  • Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021
  • The AI Megatrend Big Picture
  • Human Brain vs High End Desktop PC in 2021
  • AI Stocks Investing 2021 - Top 14 Stocks Analysis
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Table 2021
  • Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

If you have got a AMD Ryzen process er be it a 3000 series or the newer 5000 series such as the 5600x, 5900x and 5950x then if you are using stock settings you are leaving a lot of performance on the table, anywhere from 10% to 15% that can be easily achieved following the easy to follow steps in this video.

EASY overclocking within a few minutes. So watch the video, follow the steps and get your 10% to 15% boost! As an example I managed to boost a new system at stock settings by 14.5%! All without doing any fancy time consuming overclocking but easy quick overclock.

So what are you waiting for? BOOST your Ryzen processor now by 10% to 15%!

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My research team and I continue to believe the Cannabis/Alternative sector is poised for a big trend in 2021 and 2022.  Over the past few years, this sector has continued to trend lower after the hype of 2016~2018 – back when everyone was getting into the Cannabis industry as multiple US states authorized recreational and medical use.  After the 2018 peak, followed by the early 2019 moderate price recovery, this entire industry sector fell out of favor with investors for almost 2 full years.

MJ Pennant Setup Almost Complete

The peak in the MJ, Alternative Harvest ETF, in September 2018 was $45.40.  The lowest price since that peak was in March 2020 at $8.81 – that’s an 80% decline in price.  Currently, MJ is trading near $22.31 and we’ve seen a tremendous recovery after the 2020 US elections.  These elections resulted in a wave of enthusiasm for Cannabis and Alternative supply companies as it was widely expected the Democrats would move quickly to legalize Cannabis and other illegal drugs after their win.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The latest data from Refinitiv shows that companies have raised a record $140 billion in the U.S. dollar junk bond market during the first quarter of this year. That beats the previous record set during the second quarter last year when companies scrambled to issue debt in a bid to raise cash during the pandemic. The three biggest issuance quarters in history have been set in the past year. With investors falling over themselves to lend money to any venture offering a U.S. dollar yield above 4%, companies are now not only finding that they can raise money easily in order to roll over existing debt, but some are using the proceeds to pay dividends to owners. It's beyond absurd.

When a mania is in full force, though, the vast majority of participants are blind to the absurdity. Investors, for instance, think that they must lend because 4% or higher is such a juicy yield when compared with anything else. And the central banks will not let companies fail, so it's a free lunch.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021.  The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attempting to front-run inflation concerns.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially close it. With some credit market hints at deterioration present, the yen carry trade is getting a new lease on life today, and that‘s generally bullish for risk-on assets such as stocks – but not really for precious metals.

With all the Fed support, the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.

The key question is the rotation‘s degree – now that the yields appear ready to retreat still a little more (the 10-year yield appears targeting the low 1.50%  figure if not declining further), which is what technology anticipates even though utilities and consumer staples have been dragging their feet a little lately. But value stocks aren‘t selling off in the least (yet?). Is the TINA still strongly in effect when those stock market segments that could have been expected under more stringent monetary policy to be sold, aren‘t no more? Rising tide lifting really all boats – in stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Stocks are Heating Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

In keeping with its historical performance, April has started off white-hot. We ended March, and Q1 for that matter, with more questions than answers.

But April 2021 started with a blowout jobs report, and the indices haven't looked back since. Right now, the S&P 500 is at yet another record, the Dow is just about at a record, and we've seen a furious comeback for Big Tech and growth stocks.

The sentiment is certainly better now than it was just a couple of weeks ago. However, I implore you to remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback/volatility occur in the second half of the month.

Think about it. In January, we had the GameStop trade spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won't just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would've been over yesterday.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits / Companies / Taxes

By: Sumeet_Manhas

When it comes to determining the federal research and development or R&D tax credits, companies may have multiple options. They will be allowed to utilize either the regular research credit (RRC) or the alternative simplified credit (ASC) approach to partly fund expenditures in materials, systems, software, formulations, methods, or innovations, depending on the situation.

The Regular Research Credit Calculation Method of R&D Tax Credits

The RRC system enables a business to a credit equivalent to 20% from its present year qualified research expenditures (QREs) over a base sum. This approach may be confusing since corporations must get a total cumulative gross R&D receipt from over the preceding four tax years in order to measure the allowance, and whether they started activities in the 1980s or earlier, they must collect details from any of those years.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Stock Market Minor Correction Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is in the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: N_Walayat

How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK

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Economics

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

William Watts with MarketWatch sees the “biggest Inflation scare in 40 years” on its way. He expects massive amounts of stimulus coupled with a boom associated with easing COVID restrictions to generate a surge in prices like the nation hasn’t seen since the late 1970s to early 1980s.

The signs say Watts may be right. Commodities, with the exception of closely managed gold and silver prices, have been screaming higher in recent months. Wheat, corn, lumber, copper, steel, and a host of other key inputs have all spiked higher.

The jump is already being felt in consumer goods and construction, but the bulk of the price hikes may still lie ahead.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

PARETO distribution! Never heard of it, well watch the video and learn something important as you get another one of my insights into how the world actually works and so how to adjust what you do so as to meander towards riches in this lifetime as opposed to the after life which many billions have resigned themselves towards. WATCH the VIDEO and LEARN something new that could change how you progress through life!

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