Friday, March 01, 2019
View From The Brextanic / Politics / BrExit
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Longtime Automatic Earth friend Alexander Aston talks about finding himself at Oxford at a point in time when the British themselves appear overcome by a combo of utter confusion and deadly lethargy, and one can only imagine what it must be like for ‘foreigners’ residing in Albion, who face large potential changes to their lives and know there’s not a thing they can do about it, not even vote.
I like the observation that the entire British political system, the place where decisions are made, is the size of a small village. That’s a visual we can all relate to. It’s a physical limit as well as a mental one. I’m all for sovereignty and self-determination, but how’s that going to work if you can’t even see the boundaries of your own territory?
Guys, it’s 4 weeks to D-Day today. How about we call off the landing, get a few pints instead, and talk? First round’s on me.
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Friday, March 01, 2019
US Consumer Debt Is Actually in Better Shape Than Ever / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jared_Dillian
I saw a headline last week:
“More Americans Are Behind On Their Car Loans Than Ever Before”
Sounds ominous. It’s even worse when you dig into it.
Seven million car loans were more than 90 days past due in the fourth quarter of last year. That’s more than during the Great Recession, when unemployment was twice as high.
A lot of the perma-bears seized on this, saying how the economy sucks because everyone is defaulting on their car loans.
Friday, March 01, 2019
US House of Representatives Hits A New Low / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Perhaps against better judgment, I just can’t keep silent about the Michael Cohen’s in da House show performed on February 27. I was watching it and increasingly fearing for the future of America. We had all been able to read his prepared statement before he opened the party with it, and therefore we all knew there was nothing there. So why did this thing take place, and why were all the cameras and reporters there? Do we live in split realities these days?
Both before and after the gruelling -for the viewer- session, words like ‘explosive’ and bombshell’ were all over, so I thought I’d watch, since I might have missed something, but no, there was nothing, there wasn’t even a there there. Apparently, US House members are by now immune to being revealed as nutcases frantically phishing for evidence of accusations they formerly made but could never prove.
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Friday, March 01, 2019
Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession. And if that were not bad enough we have the train wreck that is BrExit, not the decision to LEAVE the European Union but rather the failure of the UK government / Parliament to implement BrExit in a competent manner, far from it, Parliament has been paralysed with the UK government look set to beg the EU for an extension to Article 50. Nevertheless the major stock indices such as the Dow and the FTSE have SOARED! Confounding not just the usual perma doom merchants out there but much of the mainstream press because most of that which the press peddles has been BAD NEWS!
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
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Friday, March 01, 2019
GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
GATA's Sheer Ignorance About Gold
As I have said before, my job on FATrader.com is to further intellectual honesty about financial markets but cutting through much of the dross being presented by most analysts and media outlets.
So, as I am known to do, I will peruse the various posting through the interest for something interesting and then write about it. And, while I cannot say what GATA writes is “interesting,” I can say it is always provides fodder for presenting why so many do not understand the gold market.
In its latest missive, GATA takes umbrage with Mark Hulbert’s latest article on gold To that end, they write:
“Hulbert notes that gold often fails to correlate with inflation, though it is widely supposed to. Indeed, gold's underperformance of inflation in recent decades has been a major disparagement of the monetary metal.
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Friday, March 01, 2019
Market Forecasting You Just Cant Beat! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen walks you through the financial markets every morning before the opening bell so you know how to trade it and manage your positions.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
Next Recession: Turning Zero Percent Interest Rates Into A 21% Yield / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is a new recession in the next few years, then it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will take extreme measures in response, with the primary response being to swiftly knock short term interest rates back down to zero percent.
For many investors - the combination of recession, heavy-handed Fed interventions, and the return of zero percent interest rate policies (ZIRP) is likely to produce devastating results for their portfolios, and possibly their standard of living in retirement.
At the same time - some quite attractive profit opportunities will also exist, once we learn how to see them. This analysis explores one reasonably simple and practical alternative for turning zero percent interest rates into a 21% annual return.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
More Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty as Investors Await Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed again on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index continues to trade at the 2,800 resistance level. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% yesterday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
The US Constitution Myth / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
One reason for the failure of the modern conservative and libertarian movements to scale back, in even a miniscule way, the now gargantuan US welfare/warfare state has been the misinterpretation of the US Constitution. Many conservatives have a slavish devotion to the document, placing it on a par with the Ten Commandments and New Testament.
A typical misunderstanding of the Constitution’s history and content appeared in this recent op-ed:
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
Nokia and Ericsson Are Making a Huge Comeback—Buy Them Before Most Investors Realize This / Companies / Mobile Technology
By: Stephen_McBride
In 2017, American officials discovered that ZTE was selling phones to US enemies like North Korea.The US government told ZTE to stop. It refused. So lawmakers banned ZTE from doing any business in America.
ZTE had been manufacturing roughly 25% of its phone parts in the US. So the ban crippled its business overnight.
ZTE’s shares plunged 55% in two weeks, and the stock has never recovered:
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
How to Earn 25%+ Dividends with Blue Chip Stocks / Companies / Dividends
By: Robert_Foss
They are known as the Coca-Cola millionaires.
In the early 1920s, a Florida banker named Pat Munroe convinced his clients to buy shares of Coca-Cola (KO).
He saw that even in tough times, people would still have a few nickels to buy Coca-Cola.
Those who followed Munroe’s urgings made fortunes. His advice minted 67 Coca-Cola millionaires.
While investors reaped giant profits as the stock price climbed higher, the dividends they earned are even more impressive.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Pakistan India Conflict over Kashmir Risks Nuclear Winter, but Gold Goes Down / Politics / Nuclear Weapons
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Many important things happened yesterday. Cohen testified before the Congress, the US-North Korea Summit took place, while tensions between India and Pakistan escalated. Will these developments boost gold?
India and Pakistan Engage in Another Conflict over Kashmir
India and Pakistan are once again squaring off over the disputed region of Kashmir. It began with the suicide attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed more than 40 people. As the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility for the bombing, India retaliated and launched air strikes inside Pakistan, the first aerial attacks across the Line of Control dividing both countries since 1971. The results of these strikes are not confirmed. However, we know that two Indian jets were shot down and Pakistan army captured one pilot.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
The European Health Insurance Card: The Facts that Matter / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Dylan_Moran
Good quality healthcare is still a huge issue being tackled by many countries around the world. But for residents in European Union member countries, quality healthcare is now made more accessible through the European Health Insurance Card. This card is granted to citizens either free of charge or at a reduced cost where card holders will get access to medical treatment in 31 EU and EEA countries during a temporary stay. The card replaced the E111 card after it was discontinued in 2005.
The EHIC, however, is taking the spotlight again but this time, due to concerns over its validity after the UK exits the EU. This means that the EHIC will only work for UK citizens until March 29, 2019. But while the decision whether EU health card holders from the UK can continue to use its privileges or not, let’s take a closer look at all the facts that matter when it comes to the European Health Insurance Card:
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
Peak Gold Is Not Bullish For Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
For over a year now, the South African mining industry has experienced a measurably significant decline in the amount of gold produced. Statistics reported by South Africa last week show that the amount of gold produced by South African mines has declined for fifteen consecutive months. In December, gold output dropped thirty-one percent from the year before.
All mines, including gold, have a useful life which is determined by the ‘extraction period’ – the period of time during which recovery of the desired mineral deposit is procured. The output over time tends to grow at first, reach a peak, and then decline.
As the decline in output for a particular mine grows, the extraction process eventually proves unprofitable. After a certain point, it is no longer feasible to pursue the activity.
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
US Dollar Set to Rally and Gold Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends. We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses.
A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”. We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place. We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold. We believe the US Dollar strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Harley Davidson Looking at Electric Bikes to Save the Day / Companies / Electric Cars
By: Rodney_Johnson
My father had a Harley in the mid-1980s, which I would ride from time to time. It was an ’83 Sportster, and it leaked oil, and the electrical system would cut off when you turned a corner.
Back then that was called “character.” Today, we’d call it sloppy workmanship.
Insiders bought the company from conglomerate AMF in the early 1980s, and by the end of the decade they’d returned the storied brand to its historical place – a well-made American icon.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The Next Big Stock Market Indicator: Unemployment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
I’m always on the lookout for leading indicators that can give us an edge over erratic, irrational markets.There are a lot of them.
Some are complicated, like the popular composite index from the Conference Board. It includes average weekly hours by manufacturing workers, initial applications for unemployment, new manufacturing orders for consumer goods, speed of delivery from suppliers to vendors, new orders for capital goods, new residential building permits, S&P 500 stock index, inflation-adjusted money supply (M2), spread between long- and short-term rates, and consumer sentiment.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).
Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Bullish Sentiment Won’t Prevent a Breakout in Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Back in 2013 I recall having a bearish view on the stock market due to extremely bullish sentiment readings. The market completely ignored that, made a major breakout through 13 year resistance and continued running for years.
Lesson learned.
Turning to Gold, we find something similar during major breakouts in 2005, 2007 and 2009. In the chart below we plot Gold along with its net speculative position (as a percentage of open interest) and the widely followed daily sentiment index.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Stock Market Beware of Confirmation Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Albert Einstein once said: “Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions."
To Mr. Einstein, it was quite clear that people have their biases, and it is extremely rare that they are able to disassociate themselves from those biases, if ever. It is for this reason that investor seek out analysts who provide support to their pre-determined biases. We call this bias confirmation. And, almost every investor you speak to is afflicted with this condition.
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