Thursday, July 12, 2018
Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent advance yesterday, as investors reacted to overnight trade tariffs announcement. Is this a new downtrend? Or just a downward correction before another leg higher? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.6% and 0.9% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors reacted to new trade tariffs announcement. The S&P 500 index has bounced off the resistance level of around 2,800. It currently trades 3.4% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6% on Wednesday.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
The Rise and Fall of Global Trade – Redux / Politics / Protectionism
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Ilargi: Someone linked to this almost 8 year old article from Nicole (July 19 2010), on Twitter. And yes, it’s even more relevant now than it was when she wrote it. So here’s a re-run:
… the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 in the US, which drastically raised tariffs on imports, lead to retaliation by trading partners, and the resulting trade war dropped global trade by 66% between 1929 and 1934.
One more comment from me: Trump may be on to something with some of his tariff actions, but he risks having the US run headfirst into the brittleness of just-in-time supply lines.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Corporate Earnings Q2 2018 Will Probably be Strong. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Earnings expectations for Q2 2018 are high. Analysts expect the S&P 500’s earnings to grow 20% year-over-year. This leaves some investors and traders “worried” that the bar has been set too high, setting up for a disappointment.
I think that this earnings season will be strong and continue to beat expectations.
Why?
Because companies (on balance) almost ALWAYS beat their earnings expectations.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It has been a tough spring and summer for precious metals. Gold failed to breakout when it had the chance and it closed the second quarter in ominous and weak fashion. It was the lowest monthly close in more than a year. Silver has performed better but only because it has not declined to the degree Gold has. The one technical positive for the sector is the positive divergence in the miners. They did not make new lows in the second quarter. That is encouraging but only time will tell us how sustainable and significant that might be.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold Breaking Below This Point Could Be Fatal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Shortly after gold fell to $1,046 in December 2015, I called for a bear market rally that ranged from $1,375 to $1,428.That low mark of $1,375 has been tested three times since without being able to break above.
That’s not a good sign…
Gold has been steadily down since the third test on April 11th.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
One Drawback to the US Real Estate Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve been ranting for weeks now about it… People don’t understand that sky-high home prices are bad for countries, cities, businesses, and consumers.And only the 62% of people who already own homes are feeling the “bliss” of the bubble. They’re the ones who want prices to keep going up so they get something for next to nothing…
There’s another side effect of this housing bubble. We’ve seen it in the bubbliest areas for years…
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Live Cattle Commodity Trading Analysis / Commodities / Livestock
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – a downtrend is clearly in process while the action since 2017 looks corrective in nature. I believe this corrective phase still has a little more time left before the downtrend resumes.
Bollinger Bands – price has been finding resistance from the middle band but I favour price to overcome it shortly and head up to the upper band where the next lower high can form.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we discussed how meaningful gold and silver’s pre-market decline was given a relatively small move in the USD Index. The implications were quite bearish for the PM market, especially that we had just seen a target being reached in gold stocks. And because mining stocks had just underperformed gold for the first time in weeks. Yet, before the day was over, the USD, gold and silver had all reversed and erased most of their daily moves. Does it make the outlook bullish again? Is gold still likely to reach $1,300 shortly?
No. The USD Index indeed reversed its course, but the precious metals’ initial reaction shows how vulnerable they are with regard to the rallies in the USD Index. This is not the kind of reaction that one wants to see when keeping a long position. It’s the one that is preferred while holding a short one.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Failure of US Supreme Court Opinions / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Now that Brett Kavanaugh has been selected by President Trump to be the next Supreme Court Justice, the gladiator games of the confirmation process begins. Much of the attention will focus on the bitter hysteria that the Never Trump lunatics exhibit as they regress even further into denial. Those supporters who demand a Living Constitution are in a panic. They see the gains they have made over decades are fading with a court of Originalists and fear that Textualism will become the standard for the Supreme Court. The self-proclaimed enlightened zealots contend they are social justice warriors. In actuality they protect the corrupt institutions, practices and policies that progressives profess they oppose.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
The Value of Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
How NOT to Become a Casualty in the War on Cash / Currencies / War on Cash
By: MoneyMetals
Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now.
However, a hyper-inflationary collapse in the dollar isn’t the only dire scenario to insure against.
It is now clear that the dollar, and the financial network it runs on, is a mechanism for controlling people who don’t toe the government line.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
America a Nation Built on Lies / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
“The greatest want of the world is the want of men — men who will not be bought or sold; men who in their inmost souls are true and honest; men who do not fear to call sin by its right name; men whose conscience is as true to duty as the needle to the pole; men who will stand for the right though the heavens fall.” – Ellen G. White
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, quite a bit of news has been originating from Malaysia, China and other areas of South East Asia. Much of it is concerns with multi-billion dollar projects and excessive corruption and graft. Malaysia is taking the lead with this issue so far with the new Mahathir administration. Yet, we believe these issues are far-reaching and could result in quite a bit of market turmoil over the next few months – possibly much longer.
What is at risk is the exposure of “cooked books” across much of China, India and likely throughout the globe with infrastructure and real estate projects that were designed to boost numbers while hiding real economic concerns. You may remember we alerted our members and the general public to this concern in March 2018 – nearly 4 months ago in this blog post. If you have not read our multi-part research post regarding how China has set itself up for a massive economic collapse, please take a minute to read all of our earlier research.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold markets and sees the potential for a new "bull leg."
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
A Public Bank for Los Angeles? City Council Puts It to the Voters / Politics / Banking Stocks
By: Ellen_Brown
Voters in Los Angeles will be the first in the country to weigh in on a public banking mandate, after the City Council agreed on June 29th to put a measure on the November ballot that would allow the city to form its own bank. The charter for the nation’s second-largest city currently prohibits the creation of industrial or commercial enterprises by the city without voter approval. The measure, introduced by City Council President Herb Wesson, would allow the city to create a public bank, although state and federal law hurdles would still need to be cleared.
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dan_Amerman
Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008?
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
An Elixir for Argentina’s Fiscal Dysfunction / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Argentina and its peso are in trouble, again. By officially replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar, Argentina’s peso nightmare would end. But, in a country in which fiscal fiddlers know many tricks, some fiscal rules must also be added to the prescription.
Dollarization should impose a hard budget constraint on Argentina. Under dollarization, which exists in 33 countries, hard budget constraints are imposed because dollarized countries must finance government spending by taxing or borrowing in either domestic or international bond markets. They cannot finance government expenditures by using a central bank, which issues a domestic currency. As a result, fiscal deficits, when they occur, tend to be relatively small. But, there has been one noteworthy, unusual case: Zimbabwe. This case merits our attention.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On July 9th, Argentina will celebrate its 202nd birthday. The biggest spoiler during the festivities will be the beleaguered peso. It’s not the first time the peso has been a spoiler. Since its founding, Argentina has been burdened with numerous economic crises. Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). To list but a few of these crises: 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, and 2018(?).
By the time its 100th birthday rolled around, Argentina had experienced only three major economic crises. Alas, the next 102 years have been much more eventful, with eight currency crises, not counting 2018.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Can the Stock Market Close Higher For a Record 10th Year in a Row? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 Total Return Index is slightly different than the S&P 500 Index in that it includes the dividend yield that companies throw off. Hence, the S&P 500’s Total Return Index tends to go up a little more than the S&P 500 each year.
As of the end of 2017, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has gone up 9 years in a row (2009 – 2017, inclusive). If the Total Return Index closes higher at the end of this year, it will set a new record for 10 years higher in a row.
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Tuesday, July 10, 2018
As Trade Wars Broaden, Europe Is the Key to Future / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the Trump White House has started the “biggest trade war” in history, diplomatic activity is escalating from the transatlantic axis to China and the EU – America’s next tariff target. After the meeting of China and Central and East European (CEE) countries in Sofia, Bulgaria, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang rushed to the fifth round of intergovernmental consultations between China and Germany.
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