Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Gold Stock Sentiment Paradox - HUI/Gold Ratio Trends / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
If you are a gold-stock investor, the dark cold days surrounding the winter solstice seem exceptionally fitting this year. As the warm sunlight has largely fled the northern hemisphere, so has bullish sentiment largely fled the gold stocks. Thankfully as inevitably as sun returning to the north, gold-stock sentiment too will thaw.
Today's terrible gold-stock sentiment is really something of a paradox. The gold price is the primary long-term driver of gold miners' profits and hence their stock prices. And gold is really looking good these days. After powering over $800 nominal for the first time in a quarter century in early November, gold has since casually meandered near $800 like it was born to trade here.
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Friday, December 21, 2007
Gold Whats Driving it Higher? and Forecast for 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
As we approach the end of 2007 and a time when gold looks poised to move through its record high, and a time when global financial volatility and uncertainty have never been higher, it is time to look at what's driving the gold market now and what lies ahead in 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Gold Remains in Tight Trading Range over Christmas Holidays / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was down $2.60 to $798.50 per ounce in New York yesterday but silver was up 14 cents to $14.21 per ounce. Gold traded sideways in Asia and ticked up in Europe and the London AM Fix was at $803 (up from $799.50). At the London AM Fix gold was trading at a new all time record in British pounds at £404.68 GBP (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at £401.62). Gold went up to €558.88 EUR (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at €557.30 ). Gold has again increased in sterling and in euros. Gold thus surpassed it's all time record high in british pounds with news of the horrendous current account deficit and deteriorating UK economy (see below). Gold will likely reach it's non inflation adjusted highs in euros and dollars early in the New Year.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Uranium Stocks Short-term Trend Improves / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Well, that's two days in a row. Maybe we have the start of a rally. The Merv's Daily Uranium Index closed up for another day, up 0.106 points or 2.69%. There were a few more winners and a few less losers as requested yesterday. 34 stocks ended the day on the up side while 13 stocks ended the day on the down side. 3 stocks didn't go either way. Unfortunately, we had a mixed day for the five largest stocks. Cameco closed higher by 4.6%, Denison closed higher by 1.2%, Paladin closed lower by 0.4%, UEX closed lower by 0.6% and Uranium One closed higher by 1.2%.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
How to Make an Income from Gold Investments / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"Christmas is coming, the champagne's getting flat; "Please put a penny in the old broker's hat..." – David Phillips, The Chart Prophet
ONE OF THE BIG stumbling blocks for investors thinking about gold is that it doesn't offer to pay any income.
That's why bone-headed gold schemes turn up like Simon Cowell at a botox clinic.
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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Gold in Tight Trading Range / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was down $1.80 to $801.10 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was up 4 cents to $14.07 per ounce. Gold traded sideways in Asia and Europe and the London AM Fix was at $799.50 (down from $801.50).
At the London AM Fix gold was trading at a new all time record in British pounds at £401.62 GBP (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at £399.35). Gold went up to €557.30 EUR (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at €556.83 ). Gold has again increased in sterling and in euros. Gold thus surpassed it's all time record high in british pounds at £400.47 and will likely do so in euros and dollars early in the New Year.
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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Uranium Stocks Rally in Attempt to Break Bearish Trend / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Well, it's a start, now if we can only have a few more days like this, or better, we just might get a rally going. The Merv's Daily Uranium Index was up 0.085 points or 2.21% on the day. There were 29 winners and 16 losers with 5 unchanged. It would be nice to see a few more winners and a few less losers, but we will take what we get. Of the five major stocks, Cameco gained 3.5%, Denison gained 0.5%, Paladin, the only loser of the bunch, lost 0.9%, UEX gained 5.4% and Uranium One gained 1.0%. The best daily performer of the 50 component stocks was Triex Minerals with a gain of 23.4% while the worst performer was Pele Mountain with only a 4.8% loss.
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
2008 Gold and Gold stocks Fundamentals, Forecast and Technical Review / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: John_Lee
The fundamentals for gold relates to the confidence level in paper currencies. When demand outstrips supply of dollars, the value of dollars goes up. The supply of dollars has been rising steadily at an average of 10% annually from less than $1 trillion in 1980 to over $12 trillion today. The fundamentals for gold thus have much to do with the lessening demand for dollars. When dollar denominated assets lose value, people ditch dollars. As we have meticulously documented since August (see here ), the subprime mess has been the dollar's worst disaster in the last three decades. The subprime meltdown is now causing supposedly high-quality government sponsored debts to be selling at 70 cents on the dollar (Mad Cow contagion as we call it).
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Wholesale Credit Creation Benefits Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was up $8.40 to $802.90 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was up 22 cents to $14.03 per ounce. Gold traded sideways in Asia and Europe and the London AM Fix was at $801.50 (up from $796.25).
At the London AM Fix gold was trading at £399.352 GBP (marginally up from yesterday's London AM Fix at £395.67) and €556.83 EUR (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at €553.53 ). Gold has increased in sterling and in euros. The recent record highs for gold at the London AM Fix on the 7th of November were $841.75, £400.47 and €573.55. Gold is thus very close to surpassing it's all time record high in british pounds at £400.47.
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
GOLD AND SILVER – Buy Signal Green Flags! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
“When people see gold and silver shining brightly amidst the battered economic ruins, they will finally realize that the gold bugs were right all along.”
Buy signals are popping up in many places as a result of today's positive action in the metal pits.
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Only Gold Bullion Can Beat the Credit Crunch / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Of course - to any Wall Street power broker, economist, or US policy maker, this headline means the equivalent of “Only Space Aliens Can Halt Teenage Pregnancies”. In other words, it's a total non-sequitur to them.
So what? Who cares about Wall Street, economists, or politicians? Individual investors, business owners, workers, fathers, mothers, and college students, they are the ones who must survive if the United States is to survive the mounting credit collapse more or less intact. Why worry about those who caused the mess?
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Gold Triangle Pattern Formation to Result in Explosive Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dan_Stinson
The price action for Gold appears as a triangle pattern, indicating that an explosive breakout is imminent. This breakout could be to the upside or downside, but we are expecting it to break to the upside. We can let the price action within the triangle tell us which way its going to break.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Metals Strong on Supply Demand Fundementals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was up $1.50 to $794.50 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was unchanged at $13.81 per ounce. Gold was flat in Asia but has since rallied in Europe and the London AM Fix was at $796.25.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Gold False Break Lower to Spook Traders Before Resumption of Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
We don't normally look at fundamentals in these Gold Market updates, but it is worth stopping for a moment to consider the implications of the latest stroke of genius announced last week by the Fed in its desperate attempts to prevent a credit crunch, as it has important implications for the price of gold.
Like a magician pulling a rabbit out of a hat, the Fed and foreign central banks announced that they will conjure up $50 billion to inject into the system, which they will generate by selling low interest rate loans for those who like throwing good money after bad, or have no choice but to.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Silver Hit by Dollar Strength - Further Near term Weakness Expected / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
In the last Silver Market update on 2nd December it was stated that if dollar strength continued as expected, silver could drop below the support zone centered on $14 and head lower towards the next support level in the $13.25 - $13.50 area. Since that time it has held up above the $14 support zone, but it dropped quite sharply late last week on renewed dollar strength and at the time of writing on Sunday 16th it has just broken below this support. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
Gold Strength Expected as Global Fiat Financial System Continues to Deteriorate / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was down $5.50 to $793.10 per ounce in New York Friday and silver was down 28 cents to $13.81 per ounce. Gold opened strongly in Asia but has since sold off and the London AM Fix was at $787.00. At the London AM Fix gold was trading at £391.38 GBP (marginally down from Friday's London AM Fix at £392.18) and €549.08 EUR (up from Friday's London AM Fix at €547.18). Thus while gold has sold off in dollars, it has remained flat in sterling and actually increased in euros.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Gold and Silver Stocks Looking Bearish - Traders Don't be Fooled by the End of Day Settlement Prices! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold ended the week just about where it started but the “feel” of the activity had a decided negative emphasis. Will this week set the pace for the next few months?
Closing Price versus Settlement Price
I have mentioned in the past that I use gold futures to obtain my gold prices used for charts and analysis. I usually use the contract month with the largest trading volume and open interest. When it comes time to change contract months I may go through a little song and dance routine modifying the price to ease into the new price schedule of the new month. This week we had a vivid picture of another feature of futures prices most investors may not be fully aware of. There are really two different “closing” prices. One is referred to as a closing price by the commodities exchange and the other is referred to as a settlement price. I do not consider myself an expert in commodities and futures and have been curious about these two prices. What I found was quite interesting for a technician who likes to have ACTUAL trading prices to work with.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Worsening Credit Crunch Crisis to Send Gold Soaring and US Dollar Plunging / Commodities / Credit Crunch
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Why are the banks hurting so much?
In the U.K. banks have asked top U.K. corporate clients not to draw on lending facilities to which they are entitled in order to preserve their balance sheets as they approach the financial year-end. The banks are urging some of their biggest clients not to draw on standby credit facilities as the sub-prime crisis and squeeze on interbank lending have affected banks' ability to fund themselves. The problems started with the closure of the commercial paper market as a means of cheap funding for companies in the summer. Banks have to provide standby financing of up to 100% to backstop commercial paper programs.
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Sunday, December 16, 2007
Subprime Credit Crisis Far From Over - Precious Metals to Benefit During 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“I've been following a fourth wave triangle consolidation pattern in gold that, as the daily chart below reveals, is still valid. Taking out the 50-day moving average, currently about $784 in the futures, would be a warning sign and indicate a deeper correction to the $759-775 area. Silver also held up well … with the 200-day sma looking like strong support, an intermediate bullish outlook in silver is looking increasingly favorable even as a selloff to $13.50 continues to appear likely.The Fed will err on the side of caution on Tuesday, likely with a 25 bps cut and … the impetus for explosive new rallies in metals over the short term seems to be lacking unless crisis returns to the financial markets. This is certainly not entirely unlikely between now and next summer, so at least until then one new high in precious metals is likely.” ~ Precious Points: Consolidation in Gold and Silver, December 08, 2007
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Sunday, December 16, 2007
Uranium Stocks Momentum Still Bearish / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Ho-Hum, another day and another bummer. We are getting close to a potential break-out but unfortunately that could be on the down side. The Merv's Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.068 points or 1.61%. That may not sound like much but as with water torture little drops on your forehead may not sound like much but after a while it's hell. There were only 9 stocks closing higher on the day while 36 stocks closed lower. 5 stocks remained unchanged. All of the biggies closed lower. Cameco lost 0.4%, Denison lost 1.9%, Paladin lost 3.0%, UEX lost 2.6% and Uranium One lost 1.9%. The best performer on the day was Nuinsco with a miserly 5.5% gain while we had two worst performers, Pele Mountain and UNOR, both with 10.0% losses.Read full article... Read full article...