Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, August 18, 2018
Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up / Commodities / Uranium
By: Richard_Mills
The Trump Administration is at it again. On July 18 the financial press got ahold of a story that said the next target of the Trump tariffs is likely to be the uranium/ nuclear energy sector. In what looks like a repeat of what happened with steel and aluminum, the White House said it would investigate whether uranium imports threaten national security, given how dependent the United States is on the nuclear fuel. If the sector is threatened - and why wouldn’t it be, where 90% of the uranium needed for American nuclear reactors comes from abroad - import tariffs would likely be imposed.
If that happens, it would hurt nuclear power plants, who are already struggling with low electricity prices and flat demand, Bloomberg noted in reporting the story.
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Saturday, August 18, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q2’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks plummeted in brutal cascading selling this week as stops were run. That shattered strong multi-year support, devastating sentiment among the handful of contrarians remaining in this forsaken sector. With fear and despair extreme, it’s critical to take a deep breath and get grounded in the gold miners’ just-reported Q2’18 fundamentals. They reveal if this surprise anomalous plunge was justified.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index. GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition. This week GDX’s net assets are 33.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!
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Friday, August 17, 2018
What Gold Is Not / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
I was reading a post by Martin Armstrong called…
Gold and the Changing Fundamentals
…and in it he published a question from an email sent by a reader:
Read full article... Read full article...“Mr. Armstrong; You are obviously the person worth listening to when it comes to gold. Every fundamental these people have argued to support gold has proven completely false. Confusion in gold is really very high. You have to be really stupid at this point to listen to this nonsense. Can you express any opinion on gold?”
Friday, August 17, 2018
Is Now the Time to Buy Gold and Silver for a Short Term Bounce? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Gold and silver crashed yesterday, particularly silver.
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Friday, August 17, 2018
Why Gold Should Be Accumulated At These Levels / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
Here are a few reasons why gold should be accumulated at these levels:
1. Rising Interest Rates
Although gold rose significantly from 2001 to 2011, it was not really the ideal conditions. There were many reasons for conditions not being ideal, such as: rising stock markets and major commodities like oil (more markets rising means more competition for investment).
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Thursday, August 16, 2018
Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In our regular gold trading alerts, we focus on the short- and medium-term outlook and we rarely discuss the very long-term issues or price targets. The reason is simple – the long-term issues and price targets don’t change often, so usually there’s little new to say about them. Consequently, it’s been a long time since we last discussed our view on gold’s explosive upside potential. In fact, it’s been so long that those who do not take the time to read our analyses thoroughly and those who have been reading them for only a short while may think that we are bearish on gold in the long run. Or that we’re perma-bears. Naturally, it’s nonsense and those who have been diligently following our articles know it. What we’re aiming for is to help investors position themselves to make the most of the upcoming rally in the precious metals market and one of the best ways to do it is to help people prepare for the final bottom in gold.
Of course, buying close to the bottom is pointless unless a big rally is going to follow. In today’s analysis we want to tell you how big this rally is likely to be. Well, you have already read it in the title of this article, but the key question is if the above is just a simple round number that we “wish” gold to reach, or if it is based on reasonable arguments. We don’t want you to take our word for it – we’ll show you how we arrived at $6,000 as the minimum target for gold.
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Thursday, August 16, 2018
Large Caps Underperformance vs. Small Caps is Bullish for Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you probably already know, large cap stocks (Dow Jones index) have underperformed small cap stocks (Russell 2000 index) in 2018.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Saudi Arabia And Iran Reignite The Oil Price War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is becoming increasingly evident in the oil pricing policies of the two large Middle Eastern producers. The two countries are currently reigniting the market share and pricing war ahead of the returning U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, has been boosting oil production to offset supply disruptions elsewhere, including the anticipated loss of Iranian oil supply after U.S. sanctions on Tehran return in early November. The Saudis are also cutting their prices to the prized Asian market to lure more customers as they increase supply.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
Jim Rogers, legendary investor and “Adventure Capitalist” speaks with Mark O’Byrne, GoldCore’s Director of Research, in the Goldnomics Podcast (Episode 7).
Are the actions of the US administration making China great again? What currency is going to challenge the US dollar as the global reserve? What can we do to protect ourselves against the next financial crash?
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
A Depressed Economy And A Silver Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
Let’s take a look at silver priced in oil (WTI Crude), the Dow and US dollars:
Above, is silver priced in oil from 1983 to now. Price has moved in a large channel before it broke out at the end of 2014. This is really significant given the length of time involved.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: Gold is likely to plunge below $1,000 this year and we’ve been writing about it for months. This article provides a list of critical long-term factors that one should be aware of if they want to invest in or trade gold, silver, and/or mining stocks. We include links to our previous premium analyses and we just made these analyses available to everyone.
But first, a quick short-term update.
There were a few important technical details that took place on Friday that confirmed what we had written previously. The USD Index broke above the rising wedge pattern and the medium-term reverse head-and-shoulders pattern, while silver closed (the daily and weekly close) below its July 2017 lows.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Gold Ready to Shine, Stocks Should Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
In my opinion, GDX and the precious metals look ready to rally nicely in the coming 7-8 weeks. I have been negative on the PM’s and miners for quite some time now. Keep in mind that I believe that the coming rally will be counter trend, but substantial enough to make money. I personally like the 3X ETF NUGT, which I believe could move up over 90% in the coming weeks. My current target for GDX is around 27.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 13, 2018
Oil And Energies On The Move Lower / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you have been following our analysis and research of the Crude Oil trend and the energy sector, you know we’ve been suggesting Crude would attempt a move lower and attempt to retest the $58~63 level. It appears the breakdown in prices has begun.
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, uses an array of proprietary technology, price modeling tools and price cycle modeling tools to attempt to keep our followers up to date with trend reversals, trend expansions and more. This recent downside price move is something we have been expecting for the last 20+ days. The breakdown of support in the Crude oil market, as well as the oversupply of oil on the planet, is setting up for a downside move that could be extraordinary.
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Friday, August 10, 2018
The Various Prices Of Gold Pointing Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
Let’s take a look at gold priced in oil (WTI Crude), the Dow and US dollars:
Gold priced in oil from 1983 to now. Price has moved in a large channel before it broke out at the end of 2014. This is really significant given the importance of oil in the current monetary system (more of this another time).
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Friday, August 10, 2018
Getting Dangerous To Be A Bear In Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published Sat Aug 4 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: As the world-wide population has grown, much concern has been building regarding how we will be able to continually feed this ever-growing population. Since there are only so many resources available, many scientists question our ability to produce enough food to be able to sustain our population.
I think we are getting to the same point regarding the bears in the metals market. What invariably occurs within markets is that the more entrenched a trend becomes, the greater the number of believers in that trend grow. So, as a bull market hits its highs, with the great majority believing the rally will go on forever, there is no one left to continue to buy to push it even higher. That is why bull markets do not end because of selling, but, rather, a lack of buying. There are no more buyers to bring to the market since everyone has been converted into a buyer and those buyers simply run out of money.
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Friday, August 10, 2018
Mixed Results at Major Gold Companies / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Fund manager Adrian Day takes a look at several major gold companies in his portfolio.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE, US$21.18) continues to diversify away from silver with two new streams, a gold and palladium stream on the Stillwater Mine (a long-life mine in the U.S.) and a cobalt stream on Voisey's Bay nickel mine. Both streams are front-loaded; Wheaton will receive 4.5% of the palladium reducing on hurdles to 2.25% and 42% of the cobalt (expected to commence in 2021 after a mine expansion) down to 21% over time. The first has a 6.1% IRR, and second 11% (before tax), reasonably high in the current streaming environment.
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Thursday, August 09, 2018
Gold and Silver Kill Zone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
There is nothing bullish happening on the gold and silver charts. Nothing bullish on the miner Index/ETF charts. Nothing bullish on the HUI/Gold ratio. In other words, when it comes to a segment as volatile and sentiment-dependent as the precious metals, we are in the kill zone.
That can be read a couple of different ways. First, the inflationist gold bugs are getting exterminated as the US dollar first rose and since has stubbornly refused to take a pullback.
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Thursday, August 09, 2018
Even More Cracks in the Gold Dam / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
We’re getting there. Inch by inch, we’re moving closer to the tipping point of the decline when the slow, regular, and somewhat boring move lower turns into a violent drop. Yesterday’s session was still in line with the less exciting manner of declining, but we saw another crack in the dam that’s still somewhat holding the prices at the current levels. It doesn’t seem that it’s going to last for long. Are you prepared?
Before moving to the details of yesterday’s session, we would like to stress that the key bearish factors that we outlined in our Monday’s analysis remain up-to-date, so if you haven’t had the chance to read it yet, we strongly encourage you to do so today. Gold is likely to drop far in the next 2.5 weeks.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2018
Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at the latest movements in the silver market.
The picture for silver looks dull and weak, and it has dropped back over the past month or two, like gold, in response to dollar strength. On its latest 14-month chart we can see how, after breaking support in the $16.15 area, it has dropped back to support close to the low of last July, where it is oversold. The intermediate trend must be classed as neutral/down as it is below bearishly aligned moving averages. Having said all that there is a fair chance of it turning higher soon, as in addition to being oversold and at support, its COTs now look bullish, as we can see on the latest COT chart stacked below the 14-month silver chart for direct comparison, with gold's COTs being more so, and with gold's seasonal factors now approaching their strongest for the year, silver may come along for the ride if gold now advances, which looks likely also because there is a good chance that the dollar will react back over the near-term, as we have observed in the parallel Gold Market update.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2018
Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
On Thursday, the HUI index just broke below the December 2016 lows (in terms of daily closing prices), but it reversed on Friday and closed the week back above this important support. Invalidations are often more important than breakdowns, so did Friday’s action just tell us that we’re going to see a major reversal?
Both: yes and no. Yes, because it was – objectively speaking – a bullish signal. No, because we might have already seen what was likely to take place. There was an intraday rally that ran out of steam and was followed by a move back down before the end of the session. We saw a new sell signal as well. Let’s take a look at the very short-term developments (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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