Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
The Fed's Promise of Inflation Means More Unemployment... / Economics / Inflation
By: Bob_Chapman
The Federal Reserve tells us we need inflation to overcome the overhang created by debt and its inflationary aspects. The inflation does not create jobs – it just distorts prices upward. We are told by the head of the Fed, Mr. Bernanke, that he can end inflation when he thinks it is necessary. That is not true, because if inflation ends deflation takes command and the economy collapses. There is no finely honed instrument for turning these two opposite effects on and off; thus, inflationary instruments have to be blunt and overused. That means more often than not that inflation is over implemented. This is the opposite of the Fed’s mandate of promoting price stability, full employment and in fact is used to prop up the banking system.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
China – The 800-Pound Inflation Gorilla! / Economics / Inflation
By: Sy_Harding
When it comes to the growing global worries about inflation, it looks like it will be ‘As goes China so goes the world’.
China is the 2nd largest economy in the world, and rapidly gaining on the U.S. Among other statistics, it’s the world’s largest importer of copper, steel, cotton, and soybeans, and the world’s largest exporter of goods - to say nothing of being the world’s largest owner of U.S. debt.
Saturday, March 05, 2011
U.S. February Employment Situation, Consistent Message of Improvement But Inadequate to Terminate QE2 / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.9% in February vs. 9.0% in January. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: 192,000 in February vs. +63,000 in January. Private sector jobs increased 222,000 after a gain of 68,000 in January. Revisions for October and November resulted in a net gain of 58,000 jobs in the economy.
Friday, March 04, 2011
Inflation and Tax Rises Crush Britain's Middle Class, Real Earnings 25% Drop! / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK annual earnings grew at an annualised rate of 1.1% (December 2010), this compares against the official UK inflation rate of CPI 4% and the more recognised RPI at 5.1%, with the real UK inflation rate as experienced by most of the people of Britain running at 6.6%.
Friday, March 04, 2011
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Show Noticeable Improvement / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 368,000 during the week ended February 27. This reading is the lowest since May 2008 (see Chart 8). Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, declined 59,000 to 3.774 million, the lowest since October 2008 (see Chart 9). Both of these readings suggest a noticeable improvement in the labor market. The number of applicants obtaining unemployment insurance under the special programs increased roughly 57,000 for the week ended February 13.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 03, 2011
U.S. Economic Death Spiral Into the Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: D_Sherman_Okst
Bernanke’s Unstoppable, Self Reinforcing, Negative-Feedback-Loop
Wracked up by both parties over many decades our debt has evolved into a yearly deficit that can no longer be serviced with tax revenue and borrowing.
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Thursday, March 03, 2011
Caught: Krugman's Shifting Arguments / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
It's not newsworthy when Paul Krugman contradicts himself. However, in two recent blog posts on the varying economic fortunes of US states, Krugman's about-face was so complete and so fast that I just have to share.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
What If The China Bubble Bursts / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
Russ Winter writes: “If the situation does not improve, we’ll definitely want to quit (production). The sun is setting on the Christmas product industry (in China) right now.” — Owner of arts and craft factory in Shantou
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Inflation and the Value of Gold Explained / Economics / Gold and Silver 2011
By: MISES
Rod Rojas writes: As the story goes, someone asked an economist how his wife was doing, and the economist answered "compared to what?"
Joking aside, this is one of the most important questions one can ask when dealing with many economic problems.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
ISM Manufacturing Forward Momentum in U.S. Factory Sector Remains in Place / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The composite index of ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in the prior month. Indexes tracking new orders, production, employment, vendor deliveries, exports, and prices advanced in February. The composite index is highest since May 2004 (see Chart 4). The advances in production, new orders, employment, and exports are noteworthy.
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Bernanke "Fed Prepared to Respond as Necessary" to Support Economic Recovery and Price Stability / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
A likely threat of inflation following the Fed's extraordinary monetary accommodation and rising commodity prices is the most discussed topic in recent days. Chairman Bernanke addressed concerns about inflation in lucid terms in his semi-annual testimony this morning. First, he noted that the "rate of pass-through from commodity price increases to broad indexes of U.S. consumer prices has been quite low in recent decades, partly reflecting the relatively small weight of materials inputs in total production as well as the stability of longer-term inflation expectations." Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
U.S. Manufacturing “Red Hot”? Dream On / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
There is an article in the Huffington Post today which, before apparently being retitled, asserted in its headline that U.S. manufacturing is now "red hot," and whose text quotes a financial analyst (apparently approvingly) who asserts that it is.This is based on a report from the respected Institute for Supply-Chain Management which reports that manufacturing output in the U.S. has expanded for 19 months straight.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
U.S. Government Proposed Spending Cuts and Current Energy Price Increases / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Effect on Total Economy-Wide Spending from a Cut in Government Spending
Suppose that the federal government cuts its current spending on goods and services. Assuming nothing is done to tax rates, this means that the government's current borrowing will fall commensurately. (This represents a shift in the demand curve for credit, not a movement along it.) All else the same, the interest rates, with the exception of the one-day federal funds rate, which is targeted by the Federal Reserve, will decline as the demand for credit declines.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Deflation Confusion: Money Is Not Credit / Economics / Deflation
By: Robert_Blumen
The end is near. The end, that is, of the current monetary system. But inflation or deflation? Dow 1,000 or wheelbarrow money? While the arguments on the deflation side are not entirely without merit, they rely on conceptual errors that result in exaggerating the magnitude of a possible deflation.
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
China's Five-Year Economic Plan Calls For Slower Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
China will take steps to cool off its red-hot economy in the next five years largely by increasing domestic consumption and de-emphasizing exports, Premier Wen Jiabao announced in an online chat with the country's citizens on Sunday.
Wen, China's leading economic official, said the government's official target for average gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next five years will be reduced to 7% annually, down from a target of 7.5% in the past half decade.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
U.S. Consumer Spending Disappoints, But Partly Weather-Related / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending fell 0.1% in January after a 0.3% increase in the prior month. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.3% but this strength was offset by declines in purchases of non-durables (-0.2% vs. +0.1% in December) and services (-0.1% vs. +0.2% in December).
Monday, February 28, 2011
Trade Solutions That Won’t Work / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
Americans in recent decades have not, of course, been entirely unaware that America has a trade problem. This has drawn into public debate a long list of proposed solutions. Unfortunately, many will not work, some are based on analytical confusions, and a few are outright nonsense. If we are to understand the true scope of our problem and frame solutions that will work, these false hopes must be debunked forthwith.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Why a Flat Tariff on All U.S. Imports Would Work / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
I advocate protectionism. But one standard criticism is that this would just result in politically connected industries getting tariffs raised on the products they produce. This would corrupt our economy, force consumers to pay higher prices, and serve no legitimate economic logic. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Economic Booms, Busts, and Food Prices / Economics / Food Crisis
By: Gary_North
Maybe you have heard about rising food prices. It is happening all over the world. We hear of Third World rural populations that are trapped by rising food prices.
Why are food prices rising? Simple: because urban people in formerly Third World nations are getting richer. India and China are the obvious examples. As these economies are freed from the regulations that once burdened them, the growing urban middle class bids up the price of food. People with money in their pockets like to eat more and better food. In the bidding war between rural people with little capital and therefore low incomes vs. urban residents with more capital and higher incomes, rural people lose.
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Saturday, February 26, 2011
In Praise of Mercantilism, or Why Economic History Isn’t Boring / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
Does economic history hold a giant clue for getting America out of its present trade mess? Yes, because it debunks the idea that free trade is how nations become prosperous. Instead, it shows that nations win at international trade by playing a 400-year-old game called mercantilism.Read full article... Read full article...