Thursday, February 14, 2019
Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
Question: Plunger you keep insisting that we are in a bear market. Really? The averages have done nothing but go straight up since December 24th. At this rate we will be at new highs within a month. I thought prices go down in a bear market! That’s not happening.
Answer: The most reliable method of forecasting the eventual outcome of the market over the past 118 years has been Dow’s Theory. It has withstood the test of time. It is not a short term predictor, instead it has been likened to a weather barometer. An instrument that forecasts changes in business conditions and market cycles. It is not useful in predicting short term fluctuations just like a weather barometer shouldn’t be used to forecast the amount of rain or snow to fall in an upcoming storm.
It is my contention that if one gets the big cycles right he has enabled the basic setup for success in the market. If you don’t understand the cycle and position yourself wrong in it, good luck trying to make money. So we stick to Dow Theory, it has proven to work in the past under all market conditions. What it says now is a bear market was triggered on December 14th 2019 which began on October 3rd 2019. The present 8 week rally is a secondary reaction which remains uncorrected. All rallies are corrected. We must be patient and observe the price action of the upcoming correction. In order to reverse the downward primary trend, the Dow and Transports must complete a downside correction of the existing rally then rally back above today’s present reaction high.
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Thursday, February 14, 2019
Marijuana Stocks Ready for Another Massive Rally? / Companies / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been actively discussing the potential that the entire Marijuana stock sector could be setting up for another upside price rally. Since the bottom set up in the US stock market near December 24, 2018, many of the cannabis-related stocks and ETFs have seen incredible upside recoveries (of 25% or more). We believe the current setup in MJ, the Alternative Harvest ETF, is indicative of a new bullish momentum breakout.
The upside potential for this move is likely 12~25% or more over a short span of time. Watching MJ move from $34 to $39 over the next few weeks could result in a 14%+ move where a breakout of $39 to the upside could see MJ retesting recent highs near $45 (a +32% upside move).
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Thursday, February 14, 2019
Wage Day Advance And Why There is No Shame About It / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
In each of the last three years, gold has gotten off to a strong start only to fizzle as the year moved along. Will 2019 be the year gold finally breaks the pattern? A good many investors, fund managers and analysts think that 2019 might very well be the year when gold breaks the restraints and pushes to higher ground. One of those is Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro in New York who CNBC’s Melissa Lee refers to as “the chart master.” In a recent interview with Lee, Worth referred to the long-term chart below saying that there is “a well-defined set-up and a lot of tension” which he says is going to resolve to the upside – “a breakout to all-time highs.” With respect to gold’s relationship to the dollar, Worth says “Gold’s got its own momentum now. . .It is all setting-up for higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy.”
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Earth Overshoot Day Illustrates We are the Lemmings / Politics / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
What were you doing on August 1, 2018? Likely it was just like any other day, with your thoughts on work, your spouse, your kids, money, what to make for dinner, etc. What you should have been thinking about though, was the Earth.
August 1 was Earth Overshoot Day. What does that mean? Well, Earth Overshoot Day is the day of the year when humanity has used more resources from nature than can renew in that entire year. The date is moving closer to January, meaning every year we use up more natural resources, faster.
That’s a problem, because without a way to replace all the resources we consume - harvested food, fertilizers, energy, metals, etc. - we are gradually depleting nature’s bounty, at a rate that is unsustainable, long-term. If we keep going, and economies keep growing, we’re eventually going to run out. The problem is made worse by the global population increasing, along with the continuing wants of people in the developed world (“the West”) and in less-developed countries (who are demanding houses, cars, fridges, cell phones, etc.), putting more pressure on our finite resources.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
In a rally with no pullbacks, the S&P 500 has finally closed above its 200 day moving average (slightly).
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday, the USD Index moved substantially lower while precious metals barely yawned. Why is gold not rallying? What does the gold-USD link tell us now, in combination with latest developments throughout the PMs sector? Let’s examine these and many more clues together.
Almost nothing happened yesterday in gold and silver, while miners moved a bit lower. The latter is a bearish indication, but not the most important one that we saw. The key issue is that what happened in the gold-USD link showed that gold was previously not showing strength with regard to the US currency. Yesterday’s action confirmed our yesterday’s thoughts on that matter. We explained the reasoning behind the lack of decline in gold in light of USD’s rally in the following way:
One reason might be that gold is simply showing strength, as it doesn’t want to move lower – it’s waiting for factors on which it could rally. But we don’t think that this the correct interpretation. There are multiple long-term bearish factors that remain in place and thus it seems that there might be a different interpretation. And there is. Actually, there are two reasons due to which this might be the case.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
This Little-Known Strategy Will Double Your Dividend Income at No Risk / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: John_Mauldin
By Robert Ross The Wall Street Journal called it “the largest corporate cash disbursement in history.”
It was 2004, and Microsoft was one of the biggest companies on the planet.
Besides, they had a great year. So great that the company decided it would return $75 billion to shareholders.
Microsoft boosted its dividend by $3 billion to $0.32 per share. That was a dividend yield of 1.2%.
But the bigger news was the one-time dividend payment of $3.00 per share. This “special dividend” raised the dividend yield to 11%!
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Theresa May Running Down the BrExit Clock So MP's are FORCED to Vote for Her Deal / Politics / BrExit
By: N_Walayat
Here we stand with just 6 weeks to go until BrExit day and Theresa May is continuing to repeat like a broken record that she is going to go to Brussels to negotiate a change to her withdrawal agreement. Despite the EU consistently repeating that the withdrawal agreement cannot be renegotiated.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has warned that the precious metals market would enter a 30~45 day rotational price trend on January 28, 2019. On January 16, 2019, we suggested that the upside price move in the US stock market had reached initial upside target zones and suggested that price pullback would be healthy near these levels. Today, we are warning that the markets are poised for a momentum breakout move that is setting up after the minor pullback in most US stock sectors the past week.
There are a number of news factors which support both or our analysis of the precious metals market and result in a failure of our analysis of the US stock market. First, the opportunity for the US government to agree to and pass a funding bill that removes uncertainty for many months. If the US government is able to pass a longer-term funding bill that eliminates pricing pressures and fears in the markets, the US stock market could breakout to the upside on a new momentum move very quickly. Second, if the US/China trade issues are resolved, in any substantial form, and trade begins to normalize over the next 6+ months, this could add even more fuel to the upside of the market and create a boost of momentum for almost all sectors.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.
Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.
However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Socialist “Green New Deal” Points the Way to Hyperinflation / Politics / Government Intervention
By: MoneyMetals
Socialist Venezuela’s economic collapse and hyperinflationary spiral serves as a warning for American investors. It’s what can happen when a government spends perpetually beyond its means and refuses to face reality.
Despite a U.S. economy that appears relatively strong and stable on the surface, its foundation is beginning to crack under the pressure of a $22 trillion (and growing) debt load.
Both Republicans and Democrats are to blame for that. But rising pro-socialist sentiment within the Democrat Party could turn our current debt danger into a clear and present disaster.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Gold Market in 2019: WGC versus LBMA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Both the WGC and LBMA published outlooks for the global economy and gold market in 2019. Who is right?
WGC’s Outlook for Gold in 2019
Let’s start from the World Gold Council (WGC) which published its 2019 outlook on January 10th. As befits the organization representing industry’s interests, the WGC is bullish on gold prices. No surprises here. According to the institution, the following trends will mainly shape the gold market in 2019: financial market instability, monetary policy and the US dollar, and structural economic reforms.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Best Cash ISA as Providers Start Sowing Seeds for Fresh Season / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: MoneyFacts
Savers will be pleased to find out that providers have stepped up competition in the ISA market, with rates rising and new deals being launched to entice savers since the start of 2019.
Indeed, the latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk can reveal that 24* savings providers have increased rates or launched new ISAs, with some securing a Best Buy position in the process.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Gold Prices Continue to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On January 28, 2019, our research team issued a research post indicating we believed that Precious Metals would rotate lower over the next 45+ days in preparation for a momentum base/breakout that would initiate sometime near the end of April or early May. Recent price weakness in Gold has begun to confirm our analysis and we believe this price weakness will continue for the next 2~4 weeks while traders identify a price bottom and hammer out a momentum base/support level.
Gold is currently down another -1% this week and testing the $1307 level after rotating back to near $1320. Our analysis continues to suggest price weakness in the Precious Metals markets going forward for at least 2~3 more weeks. We are expecting the price of Gold to fall below $1290 and ultimately, potentially, test the $1260 level where we believe true support will be found.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Trump’s Quest to Undermine Multilateral Development Banks / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the postwar era, the multilateral development banks were created to facilitate global trade. Today, they are ‘America First’ targets.Recently, the White House has been pushing its America First stance in the World Trade Organization (WTO) by controversial appeals to a “national security exception.” In response to the Trump tariffs, several WTO members have brought dispute settlement cases against the U.S.
World Bank is next in the firing line. Reportedly, the White House will announce David Malpass as the nominee for President of the World Bank, after Jim Yong Kim's resignation well before the end of his five-year term in 2022.
In the 2016 election, Malpass served as Trump’s economic advisor. A year later he was appointed Undersecretary for International Affairs in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. But he is an odd choice to head the World Bank - a bit like selecting a coal CEO to head the struggle against climate change.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Sheffield B17 US Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 Full Details / Local / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
2019 marks the 75th anniversary of the crash of a US B17 Flying Fortress bomber in Endcliffe Park, Sheffield on the 22nd of February 1944 costing the lives of the 10 member crew of the "Mi Amigo". In commemoration of which a fly past will take place on the 22nd of February 2019 at 8.45am at Endcliffe Park that will include an F15 fighter jet from RAF Lakenheath, other aircraft to include Ospreys, Typhoons and a Dakota.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The $12 Trillion Federal Debt Bombshell / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”
“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection. I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counter-party signature. Gold, however, has always been far more valuable per ounce than silver. No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The 2 Rules For Successful Trading / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Powell's Interest Rate Hikes Pause Won’t Save Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Jerome Powell threw Wall Street a lifeline recently when he decided to temporarily take a pause with the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. The Fed Head also indicated that the process of credit destruction, known as Quantitative Tightening, may soon be brought to an end. This move towards donning a dovish plume caused the total value of equities to soar back to a level that is now 137% of GDP. For some context, that valuation is over 30 percentage points higher than it was at the start of Great Recession and over 90 percentage points greater than 1985. So, the salient question for investors is: will a slightly dovish FOMC be enough to support the massively overvalued market?
The S&P 500 is now trading at over 16x forward earnings. But the growth rate of that earnings will plunge from over 20% last year to a minus 0.8% in Q1 of this year, according to FACTSET. It might have made sense to pay 19x earnings back in 2018 because it was justified by a commensurate rate of earnings growth. But only a fool would pay 16x or 17x earnings if growth is actually negative?
The only reason why that would make sense is if investors were convinced EPS growth was about to soar back towards the unusually-strong rate of growth enjoyed last year. And for that to be the case several stars have to align perfectly.
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