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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

So Many Things are Not Confirming Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

A lot of things are not “confirming” the stock market’s rally right now.

Standard traders look for “non-confirmations” in the market. They typically plot a fundamental/technical indicator ontop of the S&P 500, demonstrate how the 2 lines have mostly had a strong correlation over the past 2 years, and then demonstrate how the S&P has “diverged” from the indicator recently and how the indicator is not “confirming” the stock market’s rally.

Then, they come to the conclusion that the stock market is going to reverse because “DIVERGENCE!”

In reality, most divergences don’t amount to anything and are not much better than a 50/50 coin toss. These correlations are optical illusions, and work until they don’t.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Gold and the Great Global Wealth Grab / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Gold continues to soar, up 14% in the last six months and now challenging its 2018 highs.

If you’re looking to understand why Gold continues to rally, you don’t have to look any further than the political arena where more and more politicians are calling for wealth taxes and cash grabs.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

HUI Update…A Treat for Long Suffering Gold Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is the combo chart which has the HUI on top, the UUP in the middle and GLD on the bottom. Everything looks fine.

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Currencies

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Forex Trading Management: The Importance of Being Prepared / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

There is this pearl of wisdom in the trading world. Plan the trade and trade the plan. We have just seen the importance thereof in the EUR/USD pair. It had positive direct implications for us and you, the subscriber. Does the above influence our outlook on the other currency pairs? Is there any corresponding action to take?

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Wall Street is Chasing Ghosts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street’s absolute obsession with the soon to be announced most wonderful trade deal with China is mind-boggling. The cheerleaders that haunt main stream financial media don’t even care what kind of deal gets done. They don’t care if it hurts the already faltering condition of China’s economy or even if it does little to improve the chronically massive US trade deficits—just as long as both sides can spin it as a victory and return to the status quo all will be fine.

But let’s look at some facts that contradict this assumption. The problems with China are structural and have very little if anything to do with a trade war. To prove this let’s first look at the main stock market in China called the Shanghai Composite Index. This index peaked at over 5,100 in the summer of 2015. It began last year at 3,550. But today is trading at just 2,720. From its peak in 2015 to the day the trade war began on July 6th of 2018, the index fell by 47%. Therefore, it is silly to blame China’s issues on trade alone. The real issue with China is debt. In 2007 its debt was $7 trillion, and it has skyrocketed to $40 trillion today. It is the most unbalanced and unproductive pile of debt dung the world has ever seen, and it was built in record time by an edict from the communist state.

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Politics

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Here’s Why The Left’s New Economic Policies Are Just Stupid / Politics / Economic Theory

By: Jared_Dillian

Somewhere in the last 30–40 years, we have become economically illiterate.

Elizabeth Warren wants wealth taxes that would impose asset forfeitures of 2–3% on households with more than $50 million in assets.

There are practical and legal problems with their implementation. But she wants to implement them anyway.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wants a 70% income tax rate on incomes over $10 million. This would be the highest income tax rate in the OECD. And yet, it would affect only 16,000 households and only return marginal rates to historical levels, anyway.
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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Sixteen states sue Trump over border wall emergency. Is it good or bad for the yellow metal?

Trump’s National Emergency and Gold

On Friday, President Trump declared a national emergency to obtain funds for building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which was his key promise during a campaign. According to the President’s proclamation :

the current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency. The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

The Coming Restoration of Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.

Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.

The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.

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Housing-Market

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

UK Retirement Interest-only Mortgages Start to Take Off / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

It is almost a year since the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) reclassified retirement interest-only mortgages (RIOs) in March 2018, and despite a slow start, two new providers have joined the sector in the past week, taking the total to 12.

After being regulated under equity release rules and regulations, the measure to make RIOs standard mortgages was introduced in response to demographic and economic changes, and to promote more options for older borrowers who may arrive at the end of their interest-only mortgage term and have nowhere to turn.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Why Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The one interesting facet of the various research posts our team continues to digest is the continued bearish sentiment that exudes from some analysts.  It appears these technical gurus have become married to the concept that global economic issues will crash the US stock market in the near future.  We have to give them some credit though.  We wanted to take a few minutes of your time to try to highlight how and why we believe these technical gurus are making these points so clearly now and why we believe there are multiple catalysts that they are simply failing to comprehend.

Our team of researchers continues to learn from other skilled researchers, clients, and technicians.  Every time we read some news item or someone’s research post, we don’t take the research with a pretense that “these researchers are wrong in their conclusions”.  We start off with the pretense that “maybe these people are highlighting something we missed – let’s investigate it”.  Thus, our quest is never-ending in the search for greater knowledge and practical application of price theory and technical analysis.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 18, 2019

The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : “Housing prices in the US never go down.”

Just about everyone in America believed that in the mid-2000s.

A limited amount of buildable land and a growing population would keep housing demand strong.

So, house prices will continue to rise.

That was the thinking, anyway.

Even some of America’s brightest minds—like former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—jumped on the stable housing bandwagon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 18, 2019

Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dan_Amerman

The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.

While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention - the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.

As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession - the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, February 18, 2019

UK Savings Market Recovers Six Months on From Base rate Rise / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, reveals that the savings market has taken a full six months to price in the 0.25% base rate rise from August 2018 and for the number of products that beat base rate to return to pre-rise levels.

In August 2018, 74% of the savings market beat 0.50%, however on the day base rate rose to 0.75%, the proportion of accounts that beat base rate (0.75%) fell to 66%. After six months of recovery, the market is reaching pre-rise levels, at 72%. Still, over a quarter (28%) of the savings market today do not pay above 0.75%, so there is still more room for improvement.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 18, 2019

Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Get ready for one of the most complicated price pattern setups we’ve seen in 4~5 years.  Within this multi-part article, we’re highlighting many aspects of our predictive modeling solutions, as well as some very clear patterns that we believe, are tell-all investors to prepare for the next big move.  This is the second part of our research, please take a minute to read PART I of this article.

Now for the fun part, lots of charts and a few new predictions…

Recently, the YM (the Dow Futures Contracts) have begun an upside price breakout that we believe is setting up for an incredible price pattern.  We’ve been suggesting that capital will focus on certain sectors over the past few months (Finance, Technology, Blue-Chips, and Mid-Caps).  We believe the safety provided by these US stocks have become a critical component for many global investors.  Thus, we believe the YM, Transports, and sector analysis are critical for skilled traders.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 18, 2019

It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

We have all heard it. Many times through history, the hubris of analysts, economists, and market participants has been on display when markets rally extremely strongly. In fact, such hubris often accompanies major market tops. And, history has taught us that most of them are quite severely near sighted.

Allow me to show you some examples.

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Companies

Monday, February 18, 2019

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) – Bullish Flag Breakout Higher / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is an electronic commerce company offering online stores and retail point of sale platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants can design, set up and manage their shops using a single interface which make is an easy and attractive way to start up a business in few clicks.

E-commerce industry been around for almost 3 decades, but the recent 10 years saw a significant growth and with new technologies it took it to the next level which has transformed the processes of buying and selling goods.

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Companies

Monday, February 18, 2019

IBM Stock Long Term Bullish Trend and Elliott Wave Cycles / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly I would like to mention Big Blue has been around for over 100 years since it was founded. I have price data that goes back to the 1960’s when the stock price was around three dollars. The point of this article is to show what Elliott Wave technical analysis suggests will happen before the stock price resumes the larger uptrend.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 18, 2019

Stock Market Correction is Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?

Intermediate trend – Initial rally is coming to an end.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Politics

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Iran's Death Spiral -- 40 Years And Counting / Politics / Iran

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Today, Supreme Leader Khamenei and the mullahs celebrated the 40th year of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. With the exception of the Revolutionary Guard and “the beards,” as the hard core have been dubbed, few in Iran have much to celebrate. In the economic sphere alone, Iranians have been in a forty-year death spiral. And, let us not forget the estimated 750,000 Iranians who were slaughtered in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988).

Like the slaughter in that bloody war, the Iranian rial has been slaughtered, too. At the time of the Revolution, the rial fetched 70.5 per U.S. dollar. Today, it takes 122,500 rials to get a greenback. Thanks to the Revolution, the value of the rial has been decimated. The recent picture of the rial’s black market (read: free market) plunge is shown in the chart below.

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