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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Currencies

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Bitcoin Tension Ramps up / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

The recent couple of days have turned the short-term outlook on its ear for some traders. The last couple of months have seemed like sooth sailing, not something that could be said about the Bitcoin market too many times in the past. Now, we get a different reading and some might say that the tide has turned. But you need to go deeper than that.

Bitcoin has gone up and the bulls are euphoric. This is a marked change from the recent weeks when there was little to nothing for Bitcoin aficionados to cheer to. The main question, however, remains: “Has anything changed?” With the recent appreciation, we could also ask: “Does this action change anything?” Is there anything that could drive the profits on our hypothetical speculative positions?

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Gold Price Probable Short-term Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Gold and silver have been getting crushed recently along with emerging market stocks.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

What Does the Loonie Have to Do with Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Jack Chan's updated charts for the precious metals markets include a look at how the Canadian dollar relates to gold and silver prices.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Trump Racks Up More Wins – The Rising Deficit Isn’t One of Them / Politics / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

President Trump is winning on a number of fronts, and American conservatives are feeling better about their prospects than they have for a very long time.

Trump supporters are cheering an imminent shift in the balance at the Supreme Court. The President is expected to nominate a justice who respects the constitution to replace the retiring Anthony Kennedy. This legacy promises to endure for decades.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Is this the Most Hawkish Fed Ever? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

My research shows that this is one of the most hawkish Fed rate-hiking regimes ever. It has raised rates seven times during this current cycle and is on pace to raise the Fed Funds Rate(FFR) four times this year and three times in 2019.

But what makes its monetary policy extraordinarily restrictive is that for the first time in history the Fed is also selling $40 billion per month of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasuries starting in Q3 and $600 billion per year come October. Because the Fed is destroying money at a record pace while the rest of the world’s major central banks are still engaged in money printing (QE) and zero interest rate policies (ZIRP), Jerome Powell’s trenchant and unilateral tightening policy is now causing chaos in emerging markets.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Stock Market Temporary Bottom Set-Up Needs Follow Through / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Submissions

By Ricky Wen : The last week of June was quite weak as the stock market continued the downward momentum from the 3rd week by grinding down into the major weekly trending support zone around 2700-2720 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the backtest.

After Monday's steep sell-off, the rest of the week was mostly consolidation within Monday’s range. The main takeaway from the week was that the market made a temporary bottom setup with the nominal lower low at around 2693 on the ES and back into the 2740 area resistance. It is now waiting for some follow through this week, or invalidation if that was not the low.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Crude Oil – Precious Metals Link and Its Implications / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent days, oil bulls have accustomed us to fresh peaks. However, when we look more closely at the volume, their actions lose some of the glow. When we add the picture, which emerges from the relationship between crude oil and precious metals, doubts about the strength of the rally are getting even bigger. Is it possible that this interesting link tells us more about the future of black gold?

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Silver Bull Market Is Almost Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is running out of time and space (on the chart) to decide where it will go over the next months and years. The similarity of conditions to the early 80s suggests that silver could go into a multi-year bear market or continue its bull market:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Negative Expectations, but.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks failed to continue their short-term rebound on Friday and they closed virtually flat. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation, as it remained above the level of 2,700 on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. But was it a bottoming pattern or just some flat correction before another leg lower? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Friday, as the investors hesitated following Thursday's rebound off support level. The S&P 500 index extended its week-long consolidation. It currently trades 5.3% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on the last trading day of the month and the quarter.

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Politics

Monday, July 02, 2018

England's Lucky Path to Football World Cup Final at Russia 2018 / Politics / Spread Betting

By: N_Walayat

My following video illustrates why England could be set to reach the Football World Cup Finals in Russia, all curtesy of lady luck that has presented England witht he easiest path to football victory in 50 years! The betting markets have also acknowledged this good fortune with odds greatly tightening, currently putting England at 11/10 against Colombia whilst England are at 7 to 1 to win the World Cup (oddschecker), more in my following video:

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Personal_Finance

Monday, July 02, 2018

Powerful Tips for Successful Gambling that Work / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Steve_Marks

...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Bucks “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As you probably already know, the stock market’s seasonality is bearish from May – September. That’s where the phrase “Sell in May and go Away” comes from.

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Commodities

Monday, July 02, 2018

Gold Moving Toward a Reset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the fundamentals behind gold and the markets. Gold is the ultimate safe haven, for two simple reasons. First, its total aboveground supply only grows 1.4% per year, no matter what anyone does (and even this rate of increase is starting to fall as production levels have peaked). Second, gold is final settlement for the payment of obligations; it is universally accepted as itself, in physical form, not needing to be translated into someone else's currency.

In the current financial asset mania, with confidence in markets and central banks very high, markets are not much interested in safe havens and gold has been languishing. When investors become more risk averse, gold will go on its next big run. Current sentiment and market positioning correspond to what is typically a price low historically.

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Politics

Monday, July 02, 2018

Mexico’s Historical Election and Obrador’s Triumph / Politics / Mexico

By: Dan_Steinbock

For decades, the specter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has haunted Mexico’s ruling elites. After July 1, his coalition triumph - after years of contested elections - could change the country’s domestic, regional, even international policies.

For a year or two, international media touted the neoliberal reforms of President Enrique Peña Nieto. However, as the “reform” narrative has proved hollow, Nieto’s approval rating has plunged from almost 50 percent to barely 10 percent. So the media narrative has been revised it by downplaying Nieto but focusing on the flawed portrayal of Obrador as Mexico’s Chávez who will undermine Mexico’s future.

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Commodities

Monday, July 02, 2018

CRB Commodity Index Chart Analysis Trend Forecast / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – price has been in a downtrend since the 2011 high and the current price action looks corrective in nature. An ABC correction looks to be playing out with price still to put in a wave C high.

Bollinger Bands – price is back at the middle band and I am looking for support to kick in here.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Step Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – Due to recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may be extending its corrective phase.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 01, 2018

Stock Market Crash Even if China and the Trump Make Up? Currencies Think So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.

The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Things To Know About This Week’s CBO US Debt Report / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: F_F_Wiley

Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Office’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which was released on Tuesday.

  1. The CBO’s baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but this time on a sustained basis and breaching 150% of GDP by 2048. Here’s the chart:
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Stock Market’s Price Action Starting to Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:

  1. The stock market’s long term is bullish.
  2. The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
  3. The stock market’s short term is turning bullish (with Trump’s trade war as a wild card)

Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Trade Tariff War Akin to Raising Taxes, Recession Looms / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.

Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Frank Holmes: I'm great, and it's great to be chatting with you about this languishing gold market.

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