Friday, June 29, 2018

The Debt Threat and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the latest edition of the Market Overview, we have analyzed the risk related to the rising U.S. public debt and private leverage. This month, we will adopt a more global perspective. Until recently, thanks to the synchronized worldwide growth, it was easy to lose sight of the elephant in the room. But as U.S. interest rates have climbed in recent months and dollar has appreciated, we cannot ignore the debt threat any longer.

Indeed, the elephant is doing well. It is well-nourished and constantly growing. As the chart below shows, total non-financial debt has risen from 191 percent of global GDP at the end of 2001 to 210 percent before the financial crisis and to 245 percent today (the most recent data are for the end of September 2017).

Friday, June 29, 2018

Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Troy_Bombardia

For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.

From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:

On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Traders Buy Markets When They Cry, Sell When They Yell! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We have been pouring over the charts to find out what to expect over the rest of 2018 and our advanced predictive modeling tools are showing us a few key elements that all traders need to be aware of.  So, let’s get right to it.

First, the NASDAQ has likely neared or reached its peak near 7400 for the next few months.  Don’t expect the NQ to move much beyond 7400 and don’t expect a lot of volatility in the NQ over the next few months.  Our research shows the NQ should stall near 7400 and volatility should decrease through September (possibly).

Friday, June 29, 2018

For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI

See illustrations of complete bull and bear market cycles

You may have heard pundits on financial television say something like, "I see support for the Dow at this price level," or "This stock should experience some resistance at that price level."

So, what do these analysts mean by support and resistance?

Friday, June 29, 2018

Gold / Copper Miners Miners Interesting Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The GDX/COPX ratio has broken above the 50 & 200 day moving averages and is still going, despite gold’s ignominious state at the moment.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Corn Commodity Price Analysis 28th June 2018 / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – a downtrend is in progress and I believe a “three strikes and you’re out” low formation is setting up with price currently tracing out its way to the third and final low.

Bollinger Bands – price is at the lower band and the question is does price trade down alongside this band or does support come in and send price back up? I lean to the latter.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Don’t Miss This Important Gold Price Signal! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

It is generally agreed that in a Gold Bull Market, the gold producers lead the way, by outperforming gold bullion.  To examine this trend we visit Stockcharts.com and pull up a chart that compares mining stocks (GDX) to gold bullion (GLD).

Thursday, June 28, 2018

More Market Uncertainty as Stocks Keep Bouncing Up and Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes reversed their intraday uptrend and closed lower. Stocks bounced off the support level following Monday's sell-off, but they failed to continue higher. Will the market continue lower today? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.7% and 1.5% on Wednesday, as the investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index remains close to 2,700 mark and it currently trades 6.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%, as it was relatively weaker than the broad stock market on Wednesday.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Why it's Better to Use Bitcoin or PayPal to Fund Your Online Gaming / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Financial, Stocks, Gold, Dollar and Housing Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts Schedule / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Greetings traders and investors.

I am sure you will be aware that the volume of my analysis and forecast postings has greatly diminished over the past year or so due to the impact of rampant theft of my content and collapse in ad revenues due to the widespread use of ad blockers. However, I have some great news in terms of my forthcoming analysis schedule to include detailed looks at the current state of the UK and US housing bull markets, as well as for in-depth updates for markets I have already been covering this year i.e. gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin. And not forgetting a really in-depth look at the prospects for the stock market.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

SPX Futures Challenge the 50-day and Fail / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures attempted a rally, challenging the 50-day Moving Average, but couldn’t break through. They have since slipped beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline and most likely have triggered that formation. That should send the SPX beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2666.78 and possibly beneath the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation at 2625.00.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Will the Full Moon Mark a Turning Point for Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses the theory that there is a relationship between the full moon and the price of gold.

For several months I have been beating the drum saying that there would be a tradable low for the precious metals in the June/July timeframe. The way to be fairly certain would be using the Commitment of Traders report and Daily Sentiment Indicator to mark an extreme of sentiment. I was looking for the DSI to go below 10 and the COTs to reflect major bearish sentiment among speculators.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Gold Cannabis Stocks Wednessday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Denali_Guide

FLAT LINE AFTER A HEART ATTACK, but what awaits come the Holidays?

So the GREEN is a Cannabis Index, which shows once investors got over their reluctance, they embraced the reality that Cannabis was and still is a coming trend.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Gold’s Signs for a June Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s intraday Alert, we explained why the short-term outlook for the precious metals changed from bearish to neutral and we took profits from our short positions. It was not just the fact that the price targets were reached for gold and silver. The key to the change in the outlook was seeing the confirmations from gold’s performance relative to the USD Index and from the mining stocks’ performance compared to the one of gold. In today’s analysis, we’ll take a closer look at what happened and what it means going forward.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Stock Market Studies for July 27, 2018: Amazon, Financial Stocks, China, GE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

1. Amazon will probably go up in July
2. The financial sector has fallen 12 days in a row. A short term bounce is nearby.
3. The Chinese stock market is getting crushed. It will probably fall a little more in the short term.
4. GE’s stock spiked yesterday. This is likely a dead cat bounce. GE will probably fall within the next month.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Grown Ups Can Go FREE 2018 to Legoland, Chessington, Thorpe Park and Alton Towers / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: Anika_Walayat

The school summer holidays are only a few weeks away so families are busy planning their holidays that usually include many trips to Britain's Theme parks where the king of UK attractions is Merlin with it's 32 theme parks spread out across the UK. We'll here is some great money saving news for you all as Kellogg are running their theme parks promotion on their £1 snack bars again that allows entry into the UK's top theme parks for the whole of 2018 for Grown Ups for FREE! So plenty of time to use the coupons to gain entry into 14 UK theme parks that include Alton Towers, Legoland, Chessington, the Dungeon, Sea Life, Shreks Adventure and Madame Tussaud's etc... See the video for full details.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

US Dollar Outlook & What it Means for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

We do not focus too much on the US dollar because in the big picture Gold usually leads movements in the dollar. As it pertains to the present, Gold’s failure to breakout (while the dollar made two new lows since the summer 2016 peak in Gold) implies that the the dollar, at worst is not going much lower anytime soon. At best, it could signal that the dollar’s bull market will resume. With that said, the dollar is approaching an interesting juncture and how it performs will certainly have some impact on the precious metals sector moving forward.

It's possible that the typical negative correlation between Gold and the dollar could strengthen in the weeks and months ahead due to a potential peak in Gold denominated against foreign currencies (FC).

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Migration Crisis Boomeranging / Politics / Immigration

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There is no migration crisis, said an article in Toronto’s Globe and Mail a few days ago. French President Emmanuel Macron followed up over the weekend with “there is no migrant crisis”. Really? If this is not a crisis, what is? Yes, numbers of refugees landing in Europe are down from 2015. But it’s not a numbers game. It’s about people.

If Angela Merkel’s political career is forced to a close next week because the EU cannot agree on a unified refugee policy, will they call it a crisis then? Oh wait, both Macron and the G&M agree that there is a crisis, just not a migration one. No, “the crisis is political opportunism”.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Dow Stock Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – an uptrend is clearly in force and the action since the January 2018 looks corrective in nature. I believe this corrective phase still has more time to play out. Price made a low yesterday at 24084 and while we may see that level tested I favour it to hold for the time being.

Bollinger Bands – price is now back at the middle band I favour support to come in here and send it back to the upper channel for one final downside test which sees price hit the lower band. A move straight down to the lower band is certainly not out of the question and if that were to occur then it probably means the next leg higher will commence earlier than expected.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Precious Metals On a Long-term Buy Signal. Short term Mixed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is up.