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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

U.S. Interest Rates Are On The Launch Pad / Interest-Rates / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few months ago, the chorus sung by the recovery cheerleaders reached a crescendo when expanding consumer credit statistics and surging US trade deficits provided them with "evidence" of an economic rebound. In declaring victory, they overlooked the very nucleus of this past crisis: namely, the enormous debt levels and bubbling inflation that created fragile asset bubbles. If they had recognized the original problem, they would have remained silent. In reality, only a reduction in US debt levels or increase in the value of the dollar would have signaled a budding recovery; but, thanks to the Federal Reserve and Obama Administration, there is virtually no way those results will ever be seen.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Fed FOMC Interest Rate Meeting March 15th Preview / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March 15 FOMC meeting is nearly certain to end with no change in the Fed's current monetary policy stance with an indication that it would continue the second round of quantitative easing.  Market participants are keeping a close eye on the policy statement to assess if there is a shift in the Fed's view.  A change in the Fed's outlook, if any, will be visible if the phrase "exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period" is modified.  Differences of opinion within the policy making committee about the quantitative easing program, involving a purchase of $600 billion Treasury securities, suggest a contentious debate.  In addition, an exit plan should be part of the agenda. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

RIP Shadow Banking System, Long Live QEx / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Gordon_T_Long

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe have unwittingly become trapped in the snarled net of years of bad Public Policy. Like corporations that look no further than this quarter's results, our politicos never stop campaigning to start the tough task of ruling responsibly. A winning election simply represents 'rewards' and 'spoils' to all before quickly resuming the next campaign. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 14, 2011

The Best Opportunity for Safe, Tax-Free Income You'll See in 2011 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. David Eifrig writes: If you can ignore one of the media's biggest sources of hype, you'll see there's an amazing opportunity for income investors right now...

But if you're interested in collecting this income, I encourage you to act soon. It won't be available for long.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 14, 2011

Three Flawed Fed Exit Options / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhether giving public lectures or teaching at the Mises Academy, I'm often asked whether Bernanke will be able to "pull this off." Specifically, can the Fed gracefully exit from the huge hole it has dug for itself?

Unfortunately my answer is no. In the present article I'll go over three possible exit options, and explain the flaws in each.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 14, 2011

The Exponentiality of Municipal Costs (and Some Advice for Endowments and Foundations) / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe word in social media is "exponentiality" of growth. Webster's, American Heritage, and Microsoft Word do not acknowledge it, I don't know how to spell it, but this path-breaking discussion of rising municipal costs deserves a word from the future.

The pension costs of states and municipalities in years hence are often stated in a calculation of future liabilities. For instance, the future obligations of state and municipal pension funds are calculated (in frequently cited studies) at between $1.5 trillion to $3.5 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 14, 2011

U.S. Debt and Deficits Ensure Violent Dollar Sell-Off Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: LewRockwell

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Stockman writes: The Triumph of Crony Capitalism occurred on October 3rd 2008. The event was the enactment of TARP – the single greatest economic policy abomination since the 1930s or perhaps ever.

Like most other quantum leaps in statist intervention, the Wall Street bailout was justified as a last resort exercise in breaking the rules to save the system. In the immortal words of George W. Bush, our most economically befuddled President since FDR, "I’ve abandoned free market principles in order to save the free market system."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 12, 2011

It May Be Time To Buy U.S. Treasury Bonds Again! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

Slowing economic growth is usually a positive for bonds.

Bonds are bought as a safe haven when global stock markets are in corrections.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 11, 2011

The Probability of More Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt would be an understatement to say that I was flabbergasted to see that the monetary base jumped $130 billion dollars in two weeks!

Well, using an exclamation point as punctuation seems to confirm my suspicions that I was, indeed, flabbergasted, as the term seems, somehow, appropriate since I felt something more than the usual crushing pains in my chest, numbness running down my left arm, my guts heaving and sphincters tightening kind of reaction I get when I see horrifying, huge increases in money and credit created by the damnable Federal Reserve.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 11, 2011

ECB Stuck in Sovereign Debt Garbage, Germany Sets High Price for Bailout Changes on Greence and Ireland / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLeaders of 17 eurozone countries meet on Friday in Brussels to discuss the sovereign debt crisis and the stabilization pact, but don't expect much of anything to come from it. Instead, expect to see a lot of bickering interspersed with agreements to agree on non-critical issues.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Pimco Dumps All U.S. Treasury Bonds, Six Reasons Why They Got it Wrong / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePimco's Bill Gross has been dumping US government debt in favor of other alternatives including emerging-market opportunities. Looking ahead, I think it's more likely to be a bullish setup for treasuries than not.

First, please consider the news.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Bank of England Interest Rate Indecision, UK Rates Held at 0.5% for 2 Years / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England again decided to do nothing by keeping the UK base interest rate on hold at 0.5% for now 2 full years whilst the inflation fires are burning out of control, rapidly consuming the purchasing power of workers and life time accumulated value of savings. The Bank of England exists purely to service the interest of the bankster elite as evidenced by the fact it funnels cash to the banks at 0.5% to buy government bonds at 3.5% (on leverage) and thus make an instant profit of 60%, whilst the clueless in the mainstream press continue to wonder why the Banks are not lending, they are not lending because they are making risk free profits due artificially held low interest rates, a normalised base interest rate should be north of RPI (5.1%).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Banks Face Renewed Headwinds / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Tony_Pallotta

In the fall of 2010, there was no shortage of news regarding faulty foreclosure processes, aka "robo-signing." Bank stocks took a hit and the threat of a nationwide foreclosure moratorium appeared imminent. Then came the concept of put back risk to the big banks claiming violations of reps and warranty agreements or pooling and servicing agreements (PSAs). Since that time the media has gone rather quiet on the subject and the price action in the bank stocks would imply all is well. BAC settled for pennies on the dollar with one of the GSEs and the stock rocketed that very day as investors were no longer "worried about the uncertainty."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 10, 2011

That Ticking Sound You Hear is the U.S. Bond Market.... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: Many investors are afraid of inflation because they understand the run-up in prices will take a big bite out of their wallets - and their buying power.

While that's a valid concern, I'm much more worried about one of the other possible fallout effects of the expected inflationary surge - the potential for the worst global bond rout in nearly 20 years.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Q.E. Money Printing Negative Feed Back Loop to Hyper-Inflation Oblivion / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUSFed Chairman Bernanke and the Quantitative Easing programs are caught in a negative feedback loop, the instruments at risk being the USDollar and the USTreasury Bond. The former suffers from lost integrity and direct inflation effect. The latter suffers from direct intervention and market ruin. The next QE round is guaranteed by the failure of the previous program in an endless cycle to be recognized later this year. Leaders are confused why the recovery does not take root. It is because the entire system is insolvent, and the 0% rate assures total capital destruction, not to mention the big US banks are sacred, never to be liquidated, a primary condition for recovery. Liquidation is tantamount to abdication of power of the Purse and control of the Printing Pre$$, never to happen. The greatest hidden damage is psychological, where the USDollar and its erstwhile trusted USTreasury Bond are no longer viewed as the safe haven.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Index Elliott Wave Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: David_Petch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe daily chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with upper and lower Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. I illustrated the short-term Elliott Wave count, which clearly indicates a change of trend. This is a real trend definer, because gold does well with rising interest rates (not year over year inflation).

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Dallas Fed President Fisher Could Dissent if Crude Oil Prices Maintain Upward Trend / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDallas Fed President Fisher indicated yesterday that he would vote to scale back or discontinue the Fed's Treasury securities buying program of $600 billion at the March 15 FOMC meeting.  Last week, Chairman Bernanke has indicated that only under conditions of strong sustained growth, expanding payrolls, and inflation readings that are consistent with price stability would the Fed consider terminating the program.  Current economic data indicate that the Fed is not even close to meeting these targets. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

How to Cash in on the Next Big Trend in Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: There have now been three successful issues by banks in Europe of a new type of investment - the contingent convertible (CoCo).

Since each CoCo issue was for several billion dollars, and European banking authorities want banks to carry a lot of their capital in this form, we should expect issues over here pretty soon. Those who know my cynical attitude towards banking innovation will be surprised to hear me say this, but actually they're a good idea for banks.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

How Much of QE2 Has Been Implemented? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA1. The Fed announced the implementation of QE2 (quantitative easing, the second round) on November 10, 2010, which involves purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities from the private sector. As of this writing, roughly $404 billion of Treasury securities have been purchased. The rest of the planned purchase of Treasury securities (33% of $600 billion) is scheduled to be completed by June 2011. Purchases of Treasury securities, as expected, have led to an increase in the size of the Fed's balance sheet (see Chart 1) to $2.5 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011 - Conclusion and Implications - Part 2 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis analysis continues from Part 1 Here

Bank of England Remains Paralysed By Fear of Financial Armageddon

Since August 2007 when the credit crisis first broke the Bank of England has been in near perpetual state of panic, always opting to do nothing rather than something. For instance during 2008 the Bank of England should have been cutting interest rates but instead it kept them on hold at 5% as it remained paralysed by the fear of inflation right up until the world peered over the abyss at financial armageddon.

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