Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
ECB Slows Italy Debt Crisis Meltdown, but No End in Sight / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The European Central Bank admitted earlier today that it had taken part in asset purchases intended to give lift to the Italian debt markets. Through the week ending November 4, the ECB says it spent $13.1 billion to push down Italian yields against other European governments.
Monday, November 14, 2011
The Coming Global Systemic Collapse and its Implications / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
The European Union’s failure to solved Greeks and now Italy’s debt crisis is sending shockwaves through the financial, currencies, equities and derivatives markets.
Europe needs to increase its bailout fund in the EFSF to more than €1 trillion by next year when waves of Eurozone debts matures. Among them are Italy €307 billion (19.3% of GDP, Germany €273 billion (10.6% of GDP), France €240 billion (12% of GDP) and Spain €132 billion (12.2% of GDP). This is excluding new debts to be issued to fund its deficits spending and bank bailouts. Europe is now in between a rock and a hard place because it can start printing money but the ECB treaty prevented it from doing so.
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Monday, November 14, 2011
How Do we Solve the Eurozone Crisis, Where Is the ECB Printing Press? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Europe remains the focus of markets, and rightly so. But the picture is not as clear as one would like. Different analysts point to different problems – if only this one problem could be solved, then all this would go away, they tend to say. Sadly, it is not one problem but three that must be solved, and none of them is easy. In today’s letter I try and offer a basic primer on the problems facing Europe. My challenge to myself is to do it in a short piece rather than the book-length tome it could easily become. Thus, in the pursuit of brevity, we will not be as in-depth as usual, but I think it helps us to step back a few feet and look at the larger picture before we focus on minutiae.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Euro-Zone: Up the Creek without a Helicopter and Paralyzed By Hyper-Inflation Phobia / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_Butter
I don’t know why but when I watch the drama of the Euro crisis unfold my mind wanders to a scene in “Nashville” about a “country girl” who got a gig to jump out of a cake at a function, and didn’t quite understand what was supposed to happen next. I can’t help thinking that at some point in this whole sad scenario someone will have to stand naked.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Charting Euro Macro, Yields and LIBOR Interest Rate Spreads / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Wednesday's 2% decline in EURUSD was the only 3rd of such magnitude over the past 3 years. There have been five of + or 2% in the last 3 years, 2 of which occurred last month; (-2% Oct 31 after referendum announcement and +2% on Oct 27 after the EFSF/Troika/recap deal). Yesterdays 13% surge in EURUSD 1-month volatility typified the broadening rise in the currency's volatility as of late.
Friday, November 11, 2011
World has Major Funding Gap, IMF Begs Russia and China for Money / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Mike_Shedlock
Saxo bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen pinged me with an interesting set of comments regarding Italian interest rates....
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Our estimation shows that on the 2012 interest payment alone Italy now needs to find additional 10 billion EUR to pay for the rise in interest rates.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Italy the One Country That Could Destroy the Eurozone / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
It's been a rough few weeks for the Eurozone.
Portugal is still in trouble, Spain will be back on the coals after its Nov. 20 election, and if I were a bond trader, I would be shorting Belgium, which has serious deficit and debt problems, runs for months at a time without a government and is in some danger of splitting apart into its French and Flemish bits.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Too-Big-To-Save Italy Totters on Debt Crisis Cliff / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
With its 10-year bond yields nearing 7%, Italy's debt is becoming a burden it will no longer be able to handle as it follows the same path as Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
However, Italy's economy - seven times larger than Greece's, nine times larger than Portugal's and 10 times larger than Ireland's - is too big for the Eurozone to rescue.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Taxpayers in Revolt, State Bankster System in Europe is Collapsing, Next Stop USA / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Gary_North
Think of Europe's finances as a gigantic liquor supply system. There is a system of profit-seeking taverns (commercial banks). There is a clientele (sovereign states). Finally, there is a distiller (the European Central Bank).
The governments have been on a bender like none seen in modern times, especially those governments in sunny climates, plus Ireland, which has always known how to have a party. They all ran up their tab with their bartenders at pubs throughout the continent. It looked like the party would go on forever. It didn't.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Italy Enters Debt Crisis High Bond Yield Danger Zone? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: DK_Matai
1. Equity markets euphoria notwithstanding, Italy could yet drag the Eurozone and world financial markets into a new and formidable out-of-control crisis;
2. Even if Berlusconi goes, it is unlikely that any parliamentary consensus will emerge in the short term to cut Italy's massive debt and boost growth;
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Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Greek Half Debt Default Leaves Trillion Dollar Market in Limbo / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The European Debt Crisis seems to have found resolution. Those holding Greek securities will have to tolerate a one-half reduction in the value of their securities, essentially allowing Greece to halve its current debt overnight. Questions linger about Greece’s ability to pay, and some are suggesting that the change might not produce immediate benefits; a write down will just encourage investors to demand greater returns when new securities come on the market.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011
The Banks That Swallowed Europe, Western Civilization Built on Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Long-time readers will be familiar with Michael Lewitt, one of my favorite thinkers and analysts. He has gone off on his own to write his letter, and I am encouraging him to write even more. I call Michael a thinker because he really does. He reads a lot of thought-provoking tomes and then thinks about them. And then writes, making his readers think. The world needs more Michael Lewitts.
Today, he roams the world, commenting as he goes, starting of course with Europe. I have permission to use the first half of this most recent letter as today’s Outside the Box, leaving off the investment recommendations that he shares with his subscribers. If you are interested you can subscribe at www.thecreditstrategist.com.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2011
U.S. Bank Lending Remains Restrictive / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that fewer banks eased standards on lending to large and middle-market firms (Made up of firms reporting $50 million and over in annual sales) during the third quarter compared with prior surveys (see Chart 1).
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
What Does Wave Theory Say About U.S. Treasuries? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Glenn_Neely
This article is Part 3 of a 3-part interview series with Glenn Neely, founder and president of NEoWave Institute. In these 3 interviews, conducted by blogger Bud Fox, Glenn Neely looks ahead at 3 specific trading markets (Euro, Gold, and Treasuries) through the lens of Wave structure and explores what Wave theory tells us about the next 5-10 years.
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Monday, November 07, 2011
Intermarket Bond Analysis, Why E.U. is Now a Full Blown Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Capital3X
Keying in on our earlier analysis on “Return of fear in Nov”
We look at key bond market spreads to understand ground trends on the Euro and risk rally which we have already termed it as a major fake.
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Monday, November 07, 2011
Sovereign Debt Crisis Canaries In The Mineshaft: Should Markets Be Apprehensive? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: DK_Matai
1. The G20 summit in Cannes has not been able to deliver any meaningful solution to the Eurozone crisis. As the Breton prayer goes, "O Lord, thy sea is so great and my boat is so small!" The summit has confirmed that China, India and other emerging countries will neither be able and nor will they be willing to rescue the richer Eurozone nations. Also, the US is in no mood to roll out a second Marshall Plan on this occasion. The world has moved on since 1948. As one distinguished G20 summit attendee from the US told ATCA 5000, "if the Europeans are not going to take their fire engine out to put out their fires why should we lend them our fire engine? What happens if we have a mini-fire of our own in the meantime?" The much vaunted IMF solution also appears to have fizzled out, at least for the time being;
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Sunday, November 06, 2011
Laissez-faire: The Best Fed Policy Is To Stand Pat / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: EconMatters
Operation Twist through 2012, and keeping the benchmark interest rate near zero to at least mid-2013.
Nevertheless, the more important (albeit coded) message is how much more pessimistic the Fed has gotten just within the past five months. Below are the table from the Fed latest November economic forecast with the prior projection issued in June.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Jim Grant’s Best Moments on Money, Banking & The Federal Reserve / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Aftab_Singh
As many of you may already know, the other day Ron Paul expressly mentioned that he would pick James Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer as chairman of the Fed if elected. We cannot conceive of a better candidate for that unfortunately frightful job! Jim Grant is just fantastically insightful when it comes to monetary matters and particularly knowledgeable on the history of money. So, for anyone that might be interested, here I present a short video of his best moments on money, banking and the Federal Reserve over the past few years. See below for the video:
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Greece isn't the problem, Italy is! / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Kirtley
Despite surviving a confidence vote (153-145)on Saturday which helped calm a revolt in his Socialist party, this is a hollow victory for the Greek prime Minister, George Papandreou
However the opposition leader, Antonis Samaras, who had demanded Papandreou resign to make way for a new government which would include members of any political party is non to pleased, as his proposals were rejected.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Italy Moves One Step Closer to the Debt Crisis Endgame / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ben_Traynor
Is there an alternative to monetizing Italy's debt…?
SO THE Italian government today asked the International Monetary Fund to monitor its reform program.
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