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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

US Interest Rates Conundrum Unwind or Glut Rewind? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Brady_Willett

The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in 1Q07 and the U.S. housing market is, by many accounts, years away from a meaningful rebound. With this in mind, why are long-term U.S. interest rates spiking higher and why have mortgage rates risen in each of the last four weeks to rest at 10-month highs?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

Bond Market Massacre! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson, here. Two weeks ago, I issued an urgent bond market warning. I said that Treasury bond prices were falling and threatening a critical level of support. If we broke through it, I said, prices could really plunge and rates could take off like a rocket.

Well, guess what? We just sliced through that support like a hot knife through butter. Long bonds plunged by more than a point yesterday. While that may not sound like much, it was the biggest one-day percentage drop in more than 26 months!

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates on Hold at 5.50pcent / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As widely expected the Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 5.50%. The previous change in Bank Rate was an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% on 10 May 2007. The Market Oracle is forecasting the next rate rise to occur in August 2007 UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in...

The decision to keep rates on hold gives the bank time to evaluate new inflation data for May and June, before taking the next anticipated decision to raise rates in August or earlier if the CPI again jumps above 3%

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

The ECB Takes Another Step Toward Reining In Global Liquidity / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Today the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to a level of 4.0%. Today's rate hike brings the cumulative increase to an even 200 basis points since the ECB started hiking its policy rate in December 2005. Comments by ECB President Trichet suggest that the ECB is not yet finished raising its policy interest rate.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

ECB Raises European Interest Rates to 4% / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As widely expected the European Central Bank today raised its key benchmark rate by 0.25% to 4% on the back of a strengthening Euro zone economy. This marks the eighth rise since December 2005.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

US T-Bond Yield Hits Resistance, A potential problem for the Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Marty_Chenard

In case nobody is watching, the 30 Year Bond Yield is about to test its 8 year resistance for the second time. This is something to keep a close eye on, because 30 year yields and mortgage rates go hand in hand. See the long term chart below.

The concern is that home building is in a slump and many are speculating that we might be at a bottom ... ready to turn around. If the 30 year yield jumps up, then that would effect how large a home someone could afford, and it would mean that home sellers would get less for their homes in the longer term ... and fewer homes would sell.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Banks minutes and inflation report, and recent comments by the bank governer Mervyn King, all point towards to a further rise to 5.75%. The question is will interest rates rise this week ?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2007

Tremors in the US Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

I've had plenty to talk about in recent weeks — underperforming REITs … the ongoing problems in housing … risky commercial real estate financing … private equity firms gone wild … overseas profit opportunities. These are truly interesting times in many markets.

But there's been one thing I haven't talked about — interest rates. The reason? They haven't been going anywhere. You ever see one of those EKG machine readouts? That's what the chart of 10-year Treasury Note yields has looked like since last August.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Eau de Liquidity and the consequences of the spectacular boom in securitized lending / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Recent news reports highlight the difficulties some troubled borrowers are facing when trying to renegotiate payment and other terms with lenders. In many instances, the problems stem from the fact that the loans have been sliced, diced, and repackaged into mortgage-backed securities, which have then been sold to investors in the U.S. and around the world.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, May 19, 2007

People's Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other? / Interest-Rates / China Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced today that it was raising the required reserve ratio on its constituent banks by 0.5 percentage points to 11.5%. This would be the eighth increase in the required reserve ratio since June 2006 when the ratio was 7.5%. You would think that with the PBOC mandating that banks now hold more reserves, the cost of reserve credit would be moving up. Think again. Chart 1 shows that the Chinese overnight interbank interest rate, the equivalent of the U.S. fed funds rate, stood at 1.57% in March (latest data that I have available) - 12 basis points lower than where it was in June 2006, before the required reserve ratio started its ascent.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Inflation report confirms further rise in UK Interest rates to 5.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the publication of the quarterly inflation report, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King confirmed that a further rise in interest rates to 5.75% is likely to occur later this summer, in an attempt to bring inflation back under control. He stated "The path of interest rates assumed in this projection anticipates a further rise in the bank rate,"

The inflation report confirmed that a rise in interest rates to 5.75% is required to meet the CPI target of 2% in two years time .

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 11, 2007

FOMC - The Prospects for the US Interest Rates and the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

The Fed's Open Market Committee yesterday repeated its assessment from March 21st that persistent inflation remains the predominant policy concern. Interest rates were held at 5.25%. The Fed has just said, "inflation is a predominant risk" but did not raise interest rates, and indicated that it is not likely to do so, as it pointed to lower growth and the ongoing housing price problems.

The impression given is that it will react to higher inflation but will not pre-empt it. The dangers of inflation with falling growth [stagflation] are now apparent. This is gold positive and $ negative as the Trade deficit will continue at excessive levels in a climate that could discourage the investment of surplus $ [Asian nations in particular] back into the States.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 10, 2007

ECB Will Hike Interest Rates In June But Second-Half Policy Outlook Is Still Unclear / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its Refi rate unchanged at 3.75% this morning, but signaled that it expects a rate hike at the June 6 meeting. Trichet stated that "strong vigilance is of the essence in order to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Credit Collapse - May 10th / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Paul_Lamont

On May 10 th 1837 , the banks of New York suspended gold and silver payments for their notes. Fear ignited bank runs throughout the United States . The young country fell into a 7 year depression. How could two decades of prosperity end so suddenly? According to America : A Narrative History : “monetary inflation had fueled an era of speculation in real estate, canals, and railroad stocks.” Cracks in the dam were visible much earlier, as the stock market peaked in inflation-adjusted value three years prior. According to Rolf Nef, debt levels in the private sector rose to 150% of GDP. In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England , credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Bank of England Raises UK Interest Rates by 0.25% to 5.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Sarah_Jones

As widely expected UK interest rates have been raised to 5.5% at mid-day today.

In a statement the Bank of England stated :

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

UK Interest Rates Expected to Rise to 5.50% Tomorrow / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The rise in UK interest rates to the interim target of 5.50% is expected to occur at mid-day tomorrow. The rises in interest rates towards the Market Oracle target of 5.75% by Sept 2007 are a consequence of the Bank of England failing to control inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 30, 2007

The Bernanke Bluff on US Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_Petillo

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman seems to be holding his ground when it comes to short-term interest rates – at least in the short-term. His recent testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee offered no additional insight into how the chairman thinks. His testimony before legislators offered no hint as to what he would do with rates in light of some troubling economic news.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 22, 2007

UK Interest Rates to Rise to 5.50% on May 10th , What's Next ? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The money markets have now priced in a rise in interest rates to 5.50% at the May meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

In my previous article I discussed the reasons why interest rates have been on the rise during 2007 towards the target of 5.75% (British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates 18th April 07)

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Inflation as measured by the CPI jumped above 3% to 3.1%, which now virtually guarantees a hike in UK interest rates to 5.5% at Mays Bank of England MPC Meeting. The British Pound surged through the $2.00 barrier, having flirted with it for nearly 2 years now, each attempt at a break having held, but no more !

Both the rise to 5.50% at the May meeting and the Pounds jump above $2.00 have been long forecast and expected.

The Story of 2007 has been and will continue to be of higher interest rates across the world. Not just for the UK but for most major economies. The resulting effect is already being seen in the currency markets with a selling of the US dollar especially against the Euro and Sterling.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Further Hikes in US Interest Rates Possible - But Gold Just Doesn't Buy It. / Interest-Rates / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The price of gold, US consumers and the International Monetary Fund all 
agree the US economy is about to slow down dramatically.."

SO FURTHER HIKES in US interest rates could still "prove necessary" according to Ben Bernanke and his team.

Stocks and bonds sold off hard Wednesday on the release of minutes from last month's Fed policy meeting. "They still have their finger on the trigger for raising interest rates," reckons one US fund manager running $23 billion in Los Angeles speaking to Bloomberg in between watching his portfolio wobble.

But gold, on the other hand, just doesn't buy it. Spot gold prices continued to trade in a tight range around $676.50 per ounce. Gold also held steady against the other major currencies, remaining near 6-week highs versus Sterling, the Euro and Japanese Yen.

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