Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
U.S. Economy Reflation Challenge and LIBOR Deceptive Manipulation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A major challenge looms large on the immediate horizon. The US Economy must be reflated in order to avoid collapse. Debts have become a crippling factor. Liquidation of speculative trades coincides with economic retreat, and hedge funds are under attack by their creditors (largely Wall Street firms) while major companies shed workers by the tens of thousands. When asked about economic prospects, a standard answer lately of mine has been to observe important signals not of recession but of potential disintegration. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Economic Forecast, Peering into a Debt Ridden Future / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the weekly report. This week we look at some longer term indicators that will help identify when a turning point in the economy has arrived and why you should cancel Christmas, or at least go back to its traditional meaning, forgoing the pointless consumerism that surrounds it.
Before we start, you may have wondered (or not) why the weekly report wasn't around. I have spent the past 3 weeks laying out the groundwork for an attempt to peer into the longer term future. Subscribers have seen all 3 articles, culminating in the new scenario. I have released the first 2 articles to the public, the final part will also be released but not for awhile yet.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Misguided Bets On The Yield Curve Steepening / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting U.S. Long-Term Treasuries Advance as Consumer Prices Plummet . Treasuries maturing in 10 years or more, the most sensitive to inflation expectations, rose after a government report showed consumer prices dropped in October by the most on record.
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Saturday, November 15, 2008
Paulson's Blunders as Debt Securitization Market Remains Frozen / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Whitney
Henry Paulson's time at Treasury has been one pratfall after another. Even so, on Tuesday he managed to out-due himself. Paulson held a "surprise" press conference where he announced that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) wouldn't be used to buy troubled assets after all. Instead, the money will used to bail out insurance giant AIG, provide extra capital for the banks to hoard, and now (this is new part) give money to "nonbank financial institutions, like insurers and specialty-finance companies" so they can lend to credit-worthy consumers. (Isn't that why we gave money to the banks?) Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Combating Credit Based Derivatives Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to An Occasional Letter. This week we pick up from the end of this article as we begin the process of peering into the future to assemble the next stage of the scenario I have followed over the past 6+ years.
However before we start I have recently had numerous e-mails asking to join my mailing list. I thank those people for their interest but I no longer run a mailing list since converting to a subscription only website. If you would like to know more, visit An Occasional Letter for details.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
How Low Will the Fed Funds U.S. Interest Rates Go / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Hans_Wagner
On Wednesday October 29th, the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points to 1.0%. This comes on top of an earlier rate reduction on October 8, 2008 of 50 basis points. The rate is now at the level former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan kept during 2003 and 2004. This raises the question can and should the Fed lower rates further?Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
US Treasury Bonds Default Avoidance Means Dollar Death / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency
By: Jim_Willie_CB
LIQUIDATION & USTBOND SUPPORT - The two main factors pushing up the US Dollar have been liquidation of speculative trades funded by it, and redemption of credit derivatives paid in it. These are not signs of any inherent investment in the US Economy itself, but rather its liquidation. Evidence abounds of severe deterioration within the United States, a collapse of confidence, a fall in business investment, ruin in retail demand, an avalanche of job loss, and a spread of corporate breakdown beyond the financial sector. Demands for nationalization have begun outside the financial sector in a wave certain to grow in strength and breadth. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Corporate Industrial Bond Yields Strongly Support Economic Deflation Thesis / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
As one might expect in a credit crunch, default risk is rising. One measure of that risk is corporate bond yields. Let's take a look and see how various grades of bonds are performing. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Credit Crisis Eases as Interbank Rates Hit Multi-year Lows / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Although signs of easing credit strains are manifested in multi-year lows in interbank rates, the market turmoil has exasperated the already shaky cash situation of US auto manufacturers, retailers and shippers, forcing fresh waves of nation-wide layoffs, which would only feed off the negative loop from rising employment, falling consumption, lower earnings and eroding bank credit. Consequently, JPY retains the last word over the USD, while both low yielding currencies dominate dealing flows against European and antipodean FX as Asian and European markets are mired in prolonged downside, failing to break Mondays sell-off in the US. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Glenn Hubbard Wannabe Fed Chairman Devises New Bailout Plan / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Brady_Willett
Although he didn't get the nomination to replace Greenspan, Columbia's Glenn Hubbard often comments on what he believes is the best path for policymakers to take. Yesterday Mr. Hubbard was at it again, offering a brief commentary on the Nightly Business Report:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Deep Interest Rate Cuts to Treat the Threat of Economy Turmoil / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Regent_Markets
Last week the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.5% rate cut. The move was largely pre meditated as a shock tactic to boost the ailing UK economy ahead of the all important Christmas period. Spreading the cut over a number of months would have had much less of an impact as it can take many months for the benefits of a rate cut to filter down to consumers. This is especially the case now with banks being slow to pass on cuts to customers.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Massive Government Bailouts and Stimulus Packages to Hit Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold rose 2.1% last week and is up another 2% in Asian and early European trading. Consolidation between $700/oz and $760/oz continues but the path of least resistance for the gold market is to the upside especially as market and economic conditions look set to worsen in the coming weeks resulting in more safe haven demand.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bonds Set to Crash, Heres How to Make a Killing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
A new president … new ideas … and an old problem: How to pay for it all!
Mike Larson writes: It's been one heck of a week in American politics. We have a new president-elect in Barack Obama … a new approach to governing this country … and lots of new ideas about how to get the economy off its back.
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Sunday, November 09, 2008
Bank of England's 1.5% Interest Rate Cut to Prevent Severe Recession / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) acted decisively Thursday morning, cutting the Bank Rate 150bps to 3.00% - its lowest level in over fifty years and the largest rate cut since the Bank gained full policy independence in 1997. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Bank of England Plays Interest Rate Catch-up as Sterling Suffers / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The Bank of England's shocker 150-bp cut to 3.00% (lowest level since 1955) against expectations of 50-bp cut is the biggest rate cut since the central bank acquired operation independence 11 years ago. The Swiss National Bank also surprised with an unscheduled 50-bp rate cut to 1.75%. The European Central Bank stuck with a widely expected 50-bp cut to 3.25%. ECB president JC Trichet says the bank does not rule out further rate cuts and cannot rule out sharp decline in inflation next year. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
UK Shock and Awe Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
"I say, I say, I say – Did you hear about the joke of a central banker...?"
SHOCK and AWE was never supposed to be the Bank of England's approach.
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Friday, November 07, 2008
US Treasury Bonds to be Hit by $500 Billion Quarterly Flood / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The U.S. Treasury Department announced Nov. 3 that it intended to
borrow a record $550 billion in the fourth quarter. That represents a staggering $408 billion increase over Treasury's borrowing estimate from early August and includes $260 billion for the recapitalization of U.S. banks.
Make no mistake about it: There will be enough U.S. Treasury bonds to choke on, as the government tries to finance this debt.
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Thursday, November 06, 2008
Global Interest Rate Cuts ECB .50% BOE 1.5% Equals Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Bank of England cut rates by 1.5% in a larger than expected move, The Swiss National Bank by 50 basis points in an emergency action when it was not even meeting, and the European Central Bank cut rates as expected by 50 basis points earlier today. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
UK Interest Rate Cut by 1.50% / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England surprised all market participants by cutting UK interest rates by 1.5%, far more than the consensus forecast of 0.5%, and even greater than the Market Oracle forecast cut of 1%.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
UK 1% Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The MPC meeting is widely expected by the consensus to cut UK interest rates by 0.5% today, however as my recent articles (Credit Quake Persists Ahead of UK Interest Rate Cut of 1%?) have concluded that effectively Gordon Brown cracked the MPC round table in half when he stood up at the House of Commons despatch box on 8th October to announce the interest rate cut of 0.5%, which was followed by the Bank of England's announcement. This suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee is now no longer totally in the control of setting UK interest rates and therefore in many aspects control has been transferred back into the Governments hands.Read full article... Read full article...