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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, December 14, 2007

Doomed to Fail - Central Banks Auctioning of Low Interest Rate Loans to holders of US Mortgaged-Backed Securities / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Peter_Schiff

This week's announcement by the Fed that it will create a new mechanism to provide funding for credit challenged banks has been lauded by Wall Street as an innovative approach to solving the credit crisis. In truth, it is really just the same response the Fed has had for all problems great and small: crank up the printing presses, shower money on the problem, and hope that financial pain can be obscured by the balm of inflation. Both the Fed and Washington politicians are completely clueless regarding the ill effects of the plan, and are simply acting in desperation to keep a ticking time bomb from exploding before the next election.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 13, 2007

US Fed Term Auction Facilty to Drive Interbank Rates Lower / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA lot of us were scratching our heads yesterday at 1:16 pm CST as to why the Fed did not reduce the spread between its discount rate and its federal funds rate target so as to alleviate pressures in the term Libor market that have developed since August (see Chart 1 below). Little did we know that the Fed had a little holiday stocking stuffer to give us today - Term Auction Facility.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Worlds Central Banks to the Rescue with $110 billions / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Worlds Top 5 Central Banks in an unprecedented move joined forces at 2pm GMT to make $100 billions available to the retail banking market. The important point is that unlike previous liquidity boosts, the monies will be made available at favourable market rates which are much lower than the interbank rate.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Mortgage Bonds Crash in Value , Banking Sector Deception to Send Gold Soaring to $1000 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn avalanche comes in 2008. Its wreckage will hit both the USEconomy and banking world. The greatest deception in the bank sector this year has been the misrepresentation of the mortgage debacle as a subprime problem. That is akin to calling an iceberg only a problem for what one can see, when 90% of its mass lies below water. Ice is lighter than water. Most mortgage bonds are like acidic stones weighing down bank and investor balance sheets. Wall Street and the USGovt con artists, using tools are fraud and distortion, prefer the public and investment community to think of the ‘Subprime Problem' as the source of distress.

On mortgage bonds, collateralized debt obligation derivatives, structured investment vehicles, all dominant in the news, reports constantly stress how the problem is traced to subprime mortgages to all those unworthy home loan borrowers who never should have been given such loans, even at higher mortgage rates. The systemic threat, both to the US banking system and USEconomy, has entered a new stage. The remedy addressed is sure to force the USDollar lower and the gold price higher, to occur in the next gear. Breakouts are coming which will seem to lose control, like what was seen in September and October.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley Expect US Recession During 2008 / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Gold_Investments

Gold
Gold was up $4.00 to $811.60 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was up 3 cents to $14.67 per ounce. Subsequent to the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut gold fell in the less liquid New York Access market and erased the earlier gains. In volatile trade gold then fell as low as $796 but then rallied strongly and again erased the short term losses and in Asian and early European trading gold has been strong was at $807.50 at the today's London AM Fix. Gold was largely flat in pounds sterling and euros and at the London AM Fix gold was trading at £394.77 GBP (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at £393.79) and €549.21 EUR (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at €549.15). http://www.lbma.org.uk/statisti cs_current.htm Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

How Fund Managers and Investment Bankers Turn Toxic Waste Bonds Into Scam Profits / Interest-Rates / Scams

By: Paul_Tustain

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...If only I could make a thumping great profit before the year-end, says the fund manager to his investment banker, then my bonus would be secure..."

UNLESS YOU ARE well informed, you are going to pay for getting investment bankers and fund managers out of the very deep hole they have recently dumped us all in.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Subprimes Hit Dervatives Shadow Banking System / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in Outside the Box we will look at Bill Gross of Pimco's latest essay, addressing the ever expanding economic repercussions of the poorly understood CDO/CLO market, the off balance sheet structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and the economic abyss Bernanke and Company are attempting to lead the market out of with neither light nor guide. Bill sits on the top of the largest bond firm in the world, so they have some very unique insights into what is happening. I always pay attention to what Bill says, and you should too.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

The Final Interest Rate Cut of 2007 / Interest-Rates / Global Stock Markets

By: Regent_Markets

Housing news and interest rate decisions dominated headlines and market sentiment yet again last week. Its easy to forget that there were times when this wasn't the case.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

US Interest Rate Cuts and Mortgage Bailout Will Avert US Recession in 2008 / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Fed's reaction to date to the housing bust and US subprime mortgage credit crisis is by making deep cuts in US interest rates that today will see at least a further 0.25% cut bringing the rate down to 4.25%, off 1% from the 5.25% high just 3 months ago.

The US Fed is clearly in full blown panic mode, with the aim of the cuts to avert a potentially deep US recession.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 10, 2007

Nuclear Bond Implosion Ahead As Long-term Inflationary Expectations Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

The US Fed's measure for long term inflationary expectations may keep it from dropping rates much further, potentially setting off a 'nuclear' bond-price implosion. An only hours-old Bloomberg article details why "Chopper-Bernie" may have to ground his inflation-helicopter much earlier than anyone expects.

In essence, an inflation indicator used by the Fed, and literally signed off on by Alan Greenspan, indicates that bond investors' long-term inflationary expectations are on the rise - and significantly so.

Bond investors have recently been lulled into a false sense of security by the alleged 'fact' that inflation remained so low.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 10, 2007

Bank of England Worried as Interbank Interest Rates Fail to Fall / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England responded last week with a panic interest rate cut to 5.5% on the latest signs of the UK housing market entering a bear market with the release of Halifax November House price data showing a sharp fall in house prices of 1.1%, and the liquidity squeeze that had raised the interbank rate substantially above the base rate.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 09, 2007

ECB Breaks US Dollar's Neck on Euro-zone Interest Rates Statements / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday, December 6, 2007, the ECB's Trichet announced that, while currently holding steady at 4.00 percent, he is willing to raise the euro's equivalent of the US federal funds rate in a heartbeat if euro-zone price inflation continues to rise next year.

EU zone inflation is widely expected to reach 2.5 percent next year, well above the ECB's tolerance level of around 2.00 percent.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 07, 2007

Impending Global Financial Crisis As Credit Markets Grind to a Halt / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe wreckage in the housing market just keeps piling up. Sales of existing homes in October dipped 23.5% from last year. Prices on new homes dropped 13% year over year. Third quarter foreclosures skyrocketed to 635,000, a 94% increase over last October and an all-time high on the Misery-Meter. The real estate market is in free-fall and the real trouble hasn't even begun yet.

  California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida are mired in a full-blown housing depression. Inventory is off-the-chart. Presently, there's a 10.8 month backlog and the numbers are steadily rising. If foreclosures continue at the current pace, by the end of 2008, there'll be a 14 month inventory. That means that every builder in the country could take off his tool-belt right now and stop working FOR MORE THAN A YEAR before the market would clear. Contractors would be filling out job-applications at Red Lobster or looking for an empty street-corner with a tin cup.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 07, 2007

Analysis of Interbank and Base Interest Rate Spread / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England cut UK interest rates on Thursday. One of the primary reasons for the cut was the credit crunch, and specifically its impact on the interbank money markets, which has seen the interbank rates soar since the credit crunch exploded on the scene during August 07, due to the fact there is an increased risk of default and lack of liquidity despite subsequent liberal amounts of liquidity released by the US Fed and the European Central bank. Therefore this article analyses the spread between the base interest rate as set by the Bank of England and the money markets 3 month inter-bank lending rate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Credit 'Crunch' or Credit Collapse? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow can you protect yourself during the worsening credit crunch?

To figure that out, we first need to understand what this 'credit crunch' really is, from the most fundamental perspective possible. For, it's root cause is not the sub-prime mortgage default crisis as financial pundits like to claim. It goes far, far deeper than that.

We all know by now that the entire world financial structure is dependent on one thing, and one thing only. That one thing is the very brick from which the splendid looking but dangerously tilting edifice is constructed:

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 03, 2007

Popeye Paulson To Bailout SIV's and Subprime Mortgages But Without Constructive Workable Policies / Interest-Rates / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: Brady_Willett

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was trying to strong-arm the supposedly free markets again last week, this time catching headlines for his fronting of the government's proposal to temporarily freeze interest rates on some troubled subprime mortgages. You have to give Mr. Paulson credit for having the bluster to constantly make media appearances – first to dispel contagion fears, then to announce that he was helping banks set-up an SIV bailout, and now to provide an update on his subprime bailout plans. At the same time, you have to give the media very little credit* for questioning both his tactics and his apparent lack of results. Of course juggling two Treasury coordinated bailouts at the same time is no simple task. Most immediately there are the tactical concerns associated with directing Citigroup representatives to the right conference room – we can only imagine the reception desk querying new arrivals as if they were diners at a low-end stake-house: ‘are you here for the SIV or subprime bailout?'

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 03, 2007

US Interest Rate Cuts To Not Show In Economic Data Until Late 2008 / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Paul_J_Nolte

The last three weeks really just didn't count as far as the markets were concerned. Never mind the multiple 200+ down days for the Dow, the multiple 200+ up days or the many “key” 9 to 1 volume days on both up and down days, as the markets are right where they were on November 7 th , before all the bad (and good) stuff happened. The housing and sub-prime issues continue to pervade trader's thoughts and actions and until an infusion of cash to Citigroup, investors felt we were on the cusp of a financial meltdown. Comments from Fed officials in advance of their meeting on the 11 th also indicated they stood at the ready to cut rates further to avoid further erosion in the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 03, 2007

Catch-22 for US Fed and Global Economy On Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Captain_Hook

What can I tell you, but I told you so. Finally, Europeans are waking up to the fact cake eaters on Wall Street intend to devalue their way out of their problems, as forecast here on these pages recently. This is because it's really beginning to hurt, and it now appears the US intends to make the currency trade a one way event in postponing any pain like the stock market.

The only problem with this brand of thinking, if you can call what price managers are doing these days thinking, is a good old-fashioned currency crisis , which should go a long ways in waking up slumbering societies around the world in turn, along with keeping gold in the forefront. This should become even more apparent today with Bernanke speaking, where already yesterday a panicky Fed was pandering the mob by hinting at lower rates.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 30, 2007

The Bernanke Interest Rate Cycle, Age of Turbulence and Pavlov's Dog / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Tim_Iacono

Well, the big news yesterday was that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn "opened the door" to more interest rate cuts by the Fed and, as a result, equities rallied.

Like Pavlov's dogs it seems.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 29, 2007

The Fed Fails to Comprehend the Problems Facing US Economy and Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Alex_Wallenwein

US Fed vice-chairman Donald Kohn is in a quandary.

I'm sure he's not alone. It's just that he happened to be tasked with making a set of statements that would have been far too embarrassing for Bernanke to make. That is especially so after Ron Paul publicly slapped him with his own ledger book, so to speak.

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