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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, November 28, 2014

Gold and Silver Price Discovery - When the Wrong Men Use the Right Means / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

I’m not a real farmer. But I suffer the lessons and I do my best when I talk with friends, neighbors, and families about the unintended benefits of ‘growing your own’…

..There is universal agreement about the problem of not really knowing where ‘the food’ comes from. 

That may be at the core but is the basis for another fiasco of ignorance. The basic need for fair value underlies civil society; it is part and parcel to understanding where the food comes from. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Gold Price Would Soar on Possible Swiss Yes Vote / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

There are just 3 days left until the“Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum this Sunday. On November 30, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to decide whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should back the Swiss franc with gold by increasing its gold holdings to 20% - up from current levels of 7%.

The conservative Swiss People's party proposed the initiative, called "Save Our Swiss Gold", with the intention of boosting the security and financial and monetary independence of Switzerland in these  times of financial uncertainty. They believe that a 20% gold holding will protect the Swiss people from currency debasement, currency devaluation and an international monetary crisis.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Nothing Ikonic about the Gold / Oil Ratio
Assuming for discussion that a 15-to-1 ratio between the price of I Troy ounce of gold and 1 barrel of oil is a long-term average or “ikonic ratio”, ( http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex2.htm) this would apply for $2 oil and $30 gold as much as $120 oil and $1800 gold. But the asset bubbles built around oil and gold would be rather different, each time. Also, coming down and off highs for the gold price, or for the oil price, there would be major bloodshed among the related overpriced and now-irrational asset values, but in the case of oil assets this will include national budgets, national FX values and even global economic growth. Deflating an oil asset bubble has a lot more ramifying impacts than coming down from a high for gold.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Silver Bear Still Looms Despte 10% Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Joseph_Russo

Rallying 10% from recent lows silver is nearing resistance
Per our last update, the prospect for some sort of pivotal turn-date occurring near Thanksgiving appears to be setting up as a plausible short-term pivot high rather than a long-term secular low. As I suggested weeks ago, this rally came as no surprise.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Happy Thanksgiving from Dubai.

I’ll have much more to tell you about my meetings in Paris, Frankfurt, and here on the Persian Gulf coast next week.

But today I’d like to fill you in on an interesting wrinkle I’ve uncovered dealing with the ongoing saga of why oil prices are so low.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

China Secret Gold Buying ... How Could It Happen? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: John_Mauldin

By Grant Williams

“How could it happen, Grandad?”

The old man’s eyes misted over as he looked down at his grandson, who sat at his feet, his young eyes alive with questions as he turned the heavy gold bar over in his hands.

”I’ve told you the story too many times to count,” said the man, half-pleading, but knowing full-well he’d soon be deep into the umpteenth retelling of a story he’d lived through once in reality and a thousand times more through the eager questioning of the young man now tugging at his trouser leg. “Why don’t I tell you the story of how I met your Grandma instead?”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Gold and Silver Refreshing Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

Gold and silver held their prices well today with silver actually gaining some ground. Not bad for the day after a Comex option expiration.

This Friday the December contract becomes active on first notice, so we might see some changes in open interest.

Not much to report in the delivery category, but the Comex warehouse show the continued drip, drip of bullion out of their domains.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Nuclear Energy Returns to Japan, Forces Uranium to Step Up Its Game / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: Jeff_Opdyke

A funny thing happened on the way to a nuclear-free world — Japan realized what a stupid idea that was.

You will probably recall that in the wake of the earthquake/tsunami/Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan shuttered its 50 nuclear power plants, which were supplying between 30% and 40% of the island-nation’s electricity needs. For the first time in more than three decades, Japan was totally dependent on non-nuclear fuels. The country became a poster-child for a nuclear-free future, and countries including Germany, Italy, Sweden and others followed suit, announcing they, too, would phase-out nuclear energy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Gold Price Spikes to $1,467.50/oz on Computer Glitch? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

Gold spiked higher in many price feeds overnight and was $270 higher or more than 22% higher to $1,467.50/oz at one stage in what appears to have been some form of computer glitch.

There was speculation that the price spike which came while the COMEX was closed for 30 minutes was due to a series of charting errors or misprints, a bad price feed or a computer glitch. Another example of how technology is a great enabler but can also be a great disabler.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Gold - So Bad It's Good: Surviving 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

As we approach Thanksgiving in the States, Streetwise Reports reached out to some of our most popular experts for perspective on the natural resource market during this volatile time. While some thought 2014 was so bad it was good—for contrarian investors—others will be all too happy to see the year in the rearview mirror.

Streewise Reports: What is the 2014 development for which you are most grateful?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Follow The Sand To The Real Fracking Boom / Commodities / Fracking

By: OilPrice_Com

When it takes up to four million pounds of sand to frack a single well, it's no wonder that demand is outpacing supply and frack sand producers are becoming the biggest behind-the-scenes beneficiaries of the American oil and gas boom.

Demand is exploding for "frac sand"--a durable, high-purity quartz sand used to help produce petroleum fluids and prop up man-made fractures in shale rock formations through which oil and gas flows--turning this segment into the top driver of value in the shale revolution.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Swiss Gold Referendum A Golden Opportunity for Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Thorsten_Polleit

The referendum on the Swiss Gold Initiative will take place on November 30.1 The Initiative demands the following: (1) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) shall be prohibited from selling any of its gold reserves; (2) the SNB’s gold reserves must be stored in Switzerland; and (3) the SNB must keep at least 20 percent of its assets in gold (i.e., the “20-percent rule”).

The balance sheet of the SNB currently amounts to 522.3bn CHF (Swiss francs), with its gold holdings and claims from gold transactions amounting to 39.4bn CHF. The share of gold of the SNB’s assets is therefore about 7.5 percent — substantially lower than what the Initiative calls for.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Silver: What COT Analysis Tells Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

Each week the CFTC publishes a Commitments of Traders Report (COT) in which “non-commercial” and “commercial” long and short futures positions are reported.  Many people have expressed doubts as to the validity, accuracy and consistency of the data.  However, my experience is that the data is mostly relevant, accurate, and useful in the long term, but not necessarily important each week.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

U.S. Dollar Near Top? Gold and Silver Trading, Platinum Breakout Invalidation / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Yesterday was a day when the precious metals market took a breather, but it's not true that nothing changed at all. Friday's breakout in platinum was invalidated. Is this a "short again" signal?

In short, not really, because this signal - even though it's bearish - is not enough to make the situation very bearish on its own.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Gold Price Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: EWI

Greetings,

I just read a special report on a major market development you should be aware of, right now ......

A potentially BIG near- to intermediate-term opportunity in GOLD, a market no one else wants to talk about.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

The Swiss Referendum On Gold: What’s Missing From The Debate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldSilverWorlds

This article is written by Eric Schreiber, independent asset manager, former head of commodities UBP, former head of precious metals Credit Suisse Zurich. All views expressed are his and may not reflect those of his former employers.

The Swiss will vote on a referendum on November 30th that would ban the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from selling current and future gold reserves, repatriate foreign stored gold holdings to Switzerland, and mandate that gold must comprise a minimum of 20% of central bank assets. The SNB does not usually comment on political referendums. However, in this case it has done so quite vocally.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Where Is the Price of Crude Oil Price Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.47% as Thursday's solid U.S. data and talks that OPEC may consider trimming production continued to support the commodity. As a result, light crude left the recent consolidation and closed the day above $76. Will we see a rally to $80 in the coming days?

On Friday, crude oil climbed to an intraday high of $77.83 as the combination of solid U.S. data continued to support the commodity. How did this increase affected the very short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

The Gold Clock is Ticking in Switzerland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Peter_Schiff

For most of my career in international investing, I had always placed a great deal of faith in Switzerland's financial markets. In recent years, however, as the Swiss government has sought to hitch its wagon to the flailing euro currency and kowtow increasingly to U.S.-based financial requirements, this faith has been shaken. But this week (November 30th) a referendum in Switzerland on whether its central bank will be required to hold at least 20% of its reserves in gold, will offer ordinary Swiss citizens a rare opportunity to reclaim their country's strong economic heritage. It's a vote that few outside Switzerland are following, but the outcome could make an enormous impact on the global economy.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

Why Gold Price is Headed Much Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Pento

What really drives the price of gold? Some say it's a fear gauge. Others prefer to look at the demand coming from the Indian wedding season. But the silliest of all conclusions to reach is that the dollar price of gold should be determined solely by its value vis-à-vis another fiat currency.

The truth is the primary driver of gold is the intrinsic value of the dollar itself, not its value on the Dollar Index (DXY). The intrinsic value of the dollar can be determined by the level of real interest rates. Real interest rates are calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from a country's "risk free" sovereign yield. Right now the level of real interest rates in the U.S. is a negative 1.55%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .

  • In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
  • This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
  • The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


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