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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Saturday, February 20, 2021

US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.

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Housing-Market

Saturday, February 20, 2021

The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

American homeowners just got a lot richer. According to internet realtor Zillow (ZG), US housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year. That’s the biggest jump since 2005.

Simply put, the housing market is booming right now. The CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers said: “We’re experiencing the strongest housing market I’ve seen in my 30 years.” Mortgage lenders handed out a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020. America’s largest lender, Quicken Loans, was writing $1 billion of loans per day!

This is one of the greatest comebacks in American history. Between 2006 and 2009, the average home lost over a quarter of its value. More than eight million Americans lost their homes during the collapse.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into the movement among some companies to hold Bitcoin and gold rather than cash.

Imagine your favorite company getting sued for holding too much cash.

I know, that's a big statement. But hear me out.

Corporations, pension funds and insurance companies—anyone responsible to stakeholders—could one day face class action lawsuits if they don't diversify into other reserves assets. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, especially in today's litigious-happy world.

Michael Saylor famously bought bitcoin last year to diversify and protect the buying power of MicroStrategy's surplus cash…half a billion dollars' worth. Elon Musk recently did the same for Tesla, plowing $1.5 billion into bitcoin. Before either of these was Overtstock.com. Remember them?

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

The stock bears finally showed they aren‘t an extinct species – merely a seriously endangered one. Yesterday‘s close though gives them a chance to try again today, but they should be tame in expectations. While there is some chart deterioration, it‘s not nearly enough to help fuel a full on bearish onslaught in the S&P 500. There is no serious correction starting now, nothing to really take down stocks seriously for the time being.

The Fed remains active, and monetary policy hasn‘t lost its charm (effect) just yet. Commodities and asset price inflation has been in high gear for quite some time, yet it‘s not a raging problem for the Main Street as evidenced by the CPI. Food price inflation, substitution and hedonistic adjustments in its calculation, are a different cup of tea, but CPI isn‘t biting yet.

Meanwhile, the real economy recovery goes on (just check yesterday‘s Empire State Manufacturing figures for proof), even without the $1.9T stimulus and infrastructure plans. Once we see signs of strain in the job market (higher participation rate, hourly earnings and hours worked), then the real, palpable inflation story can unfold. But we‘re talking 2022, or even 2023 to get there – and the Fed will just let it overshoot to compensate for the current and prior era.

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Currencies

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD / Currencies / Euro

By: Submissions

The strength in US long-term yields is beginning to put downward pressure on the Euro as the dollar gains traction. The exchange rate is starting to edge through a critical support level, while the exchange rate is also oversold. Medium-term momentum remains negative, pointing to a lower exchange rate on the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD weekly forex trading chart shows that the currency pair topped out in January and appears to have broken through trend line support. The daily charts show a similar picture but also show that the exchange rate is oversold an might have moved too far too fast.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 19, 2021

The Stock Market Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.

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Commodities

Friday, February 19, 2021

Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Palladium was manipulated for years. It had the largest short position relative to its size, while physical demand rose inversely to decreasing supply.

In 2018, demand became so large that it overwhelmed the shorts.

Physical palladium could not meet the market's needs and prices exploded. Shorts eventually decreased their positions until they got to a more sustainable level.

For many years, the platinum/palladium ratio, shown on proprietary charts, averaged 2.4 to 1 in favor of platinum, stretched as high as 5:1 in 2009, but then collapsed for a decade into 2020, to where 1 ounce of palladium would buy 5 ounces of platinum!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 19, 2021

Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Hi everyone, it’s me Neil Szczepanski again and I’m back to finish off telling you why I love to trade options! If you missed the first half of this article entitled “5 Reasons Why People Prefer To Trade Options Over Stocks” then click on the title to revisit it.  In this second and final installment, I will walk through how adjustments and risk management of options can help give you better control of your trades and profits.  I hope everyone enjoys the information and I look forward to helping everyone win with options trading!

REDUCE RISK

Everyone has heard a story about someone who mischaracterized or misunderstood their options trade, then having their account blow up when the underlying stock goes the wrong way. This happened recently with a Robinhood trader who woke up one morning to see his account at -$730,165. In this tragic event the kid took his life because he thought he had lost $730,165 and couldn’t reach his brokerage to understand his account. We learned later that the negative balance did not represent uncollateralized indebtedness at all, but rather his temporary balance until the stocks underlying his assigned options actually settled into his account.  In short it was a delay in processing of the options contracts in his account, and not the actual trade that went awry.  This is why it is very important that in this game of trading you get the proper training so you understand your risk. The risk is real. 

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Commodities

Friday, February 19, 2021

Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.

Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 19, 2021

Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

March Madness is a term referring to the college basketball single-elimination tournament of 68 teams, leading up to the “Final Four,” from which the ultimate college basketball champion is determined. Most of the games take place during the last half of March, with the ultimate winner determined in early April.

But, I am seeing potential for a March Madness setup in the equity market as well.

While analyst and investor alike have been scratching their heads at the amazing market rally, we have seen since we struck the low back in March, I think many will be surprised at the next phase of the rally, which may actually be one of the strongest.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, February 19, 2021

Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test / Personal_Finance / Land Rover

By: HGR

Just how good are Land Rover Discovery Sports MAX DEF and windscreen wipers in cleaning frozen solid snow. Find out in my latest video where in thick icy snow give the wipers a test before I hit the MAX DEF button to see how quickly it can melt ice and the wipers and shift the snow.

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Politics

Friday, February 19, 2021

Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations / Politics / NHS

By: N_Walayat

The mainstream press has gone off on a tangent where the story being peddled by the likes of the BBC to explain the lack of uptake of vaccinations amongst Britain's Black and Asian communities being put down to ignorance, gullible brown people who are easily susceptible to fake news stories, whatsapp and twitter messages.

You want to know the real reason why black and asian ethnic minorities are reluctant to get vaccinated?

It's the same reason why if your Black or Asian you very quickly learn to be cautious of the Police, even if you are a victim of a crime, not to be trusted.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, February 19, 2021

New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Sumeet_Manhas

...

 


Housing-Market

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently"

Elliott Wave International's 25+ analysts regularly review more than 100+ market indicators to keep subscribers ahead of major turns.

Many of those are "technical" indicators. Others are "sentiment" related.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 18, 2021

The Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

Commodity prices have remained in a prolonged downward trend since the price peak in mid-2008. Driven lower by a firming U.S. dollar (DXY) beginning in 2008-2011 and continuing until the present, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has declined by about 80 percent over the last 13 years.

The recent rally in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GTX) in 2020 appears to be a reaction to the DXY price weakness and the rebound in the U.S. 10 year T-bond yields. The GTX Index moves in the opposite trend to the dollar and in a similar path to the T-bond yields (Chart1).

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Commodities

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The effort to squeeze silver shorts may appear to have fizzled, but naked short sellers are as vulnerable as ever.

Silver futures prices are entering backwardation. That is a bad omen for anyone betting on lower silver prices.

Backwardation happens very rarely, but this condition has been a reliable indicator that higher prices are on the way each time it has occurred over the past decade.

In the futures market, silver prices generally go up based on how far away the delivery month is. Most of the time, prices for future delivery are higher than today’s spot price, i.e., the price for delivery now. There is a cost of carry – primarily driven by storage fees and opportunity cost of funds – when it comes to holding physical silver bars.

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Companies

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Stephen_McBride

Should I be investing? What are the “hot” stocks? How much money do I need? Stephen! HELP!

My phone’s been lighting up over the past few weeks. Old friends from college who I haven’t talked to in years are texting me about stocks—for the first time ever. I’m not surprised. They’ve been seeing “GameStop short squeeze” and similar headlines plastered across their Facebook and Twitter feeds 24/7.

They’re intrigued. They’re confused. They want to know how they can get rich! One even asked if he should put $5,000 into GameStop (GME) after it had already surged a mind-boggling 1,900%. I told him not to touch it.

He would have gotten taken to the cleaners (and probably scared off from ever investing again). As you’ve probably seen, shares have fallen off a cliff recently, crashing 85%. Which would have shrunk his $5K into less than $600—in a matter of days.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 18, 2021

S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Submissions

The window of opportunity for the stock bears is slowly but surely closing down as Friday‘s gentle intraday peek higher turned into a buying spree before the closing bell. The sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed, euphoric and compacent end of the spectrum again.

I asked on Friday:

(…) How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.

Today, I‘ll say that waiting for a correction is like waiting for Godot. Trust me, I have come to experience quite some absurd and Kafkaesque drama not too long ago. What an understatement.

One week ago, I called the dollar as making a local top, and look where we are in the process. Coupled with the steepening pace of rising long-dated Treasury yields, that‘s a great environment for financials (XLF ETF) as they benefit from the widening yield curve.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Submissions

2020 was a stellar year for the precious metals, indeed one for the books.

As the pandemic hit the global economies early in the year and governments around the world began to shut everything down and the printing machines began to print ginormous amounts of money out of thin air to save their economies from total collapse, gold jumped 24%, while silver jumped nearly 50%, over double that of gold.

But that was not the real news. This is not the first time the precious metals have had a groundbreaking year. You don't have to look any further than 2011 to see these two safe haven metals have a record breaking year.

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