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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Is an Accommodative Fed Bullish for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI


"In 2007-2008, the Fed cut rates 10 times, but the S&P 500 still declined 58%"

Many investors heed every utterance from the Federal Reserve, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that a fall in interest rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates will push stocks lower.

First, Elliott Wave International's research shows that the Fed follows the bond market. It doesn't lead it.

Secondly, EWI's research reveals that stock prices have risen during trends of lower and higher rates. Likewise, there have been periods of falling stock prices during trends of lower and higher rates too. In other words, there is no consistent correlation between the trends of stocks and interest rates.

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Companies

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Trillion-Dollar Stock Market Cap Club / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Michael_Pento

There are a handful of stocks in which institutions and individual investors have recently piled into.  This behavior is emblematic of all bull markets once they begin to hit the manic phase. Wall Street falls in love with a few high-growth darlings and takes their valuations up to the thermosphere.

 If you add up the market capitalizations of just four stocks, Google (Alphabet), Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, their combined worth exceeds $5 trillion. If you throw in Facebook, you get the top 5 biggest firms by market capitalization, and they compose an amazing 18% of the S&P 500. Another way of looking at this is that the market cap of a full 282 companies in the S&P 500 now equals the same as the top 5 behemoths.
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Politics

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Corona Virus Wuhan Global Pandemic 2020 Deaths Forecast and Market Consequences / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the worst places for a pandemic to begin is from within a totalitarian state as local party minions tend to be too scared to pass bad news up the chain of command, and obediently wait on orders from leaders residing many hundreds of miles away, by which time it's too late where virus's are concerned, and so it has been with the Corona virus outbreak in China. Don't be fooled by Chinese state propaganda of panic building of hospitals, chinese communist party bureaucracy ensures that it is already too late! The Corona virus has spread throughout China!

I am sure you have all seen news footage of deserted Wuhan streets. Though none of the news reporters appear to have put 2 and 2 together and worked out the reason why the streets are empty is because most of the people living there have already FLED the city, taking their Corona virus infections with them! TOO LATE, OUT OF CONTROL!

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

Palladium Surges above $2,400. Is It Sustainable? / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A new day, a new record in palladium! Is there any stopping it from reaching another high? What’s next in store for the white metal?

If you thought gold had a good year, you were wrong. OK, maybe not wrong, but palladium enjoyed larger gains. Just look at the chart below, which shows the price of palladium. As you can see on the chart below, this metal gained almost 50 percent in 2019, rising from $1,270 to $1,900!

And if you thought gold started 2020 well, you were also wrong. OK, maybe not wrong, but palladium was the real star (although not as great a star as rhodium which has gone really supersonic recently). Let’s look at the chart below once again – the white metal skyrocketed from $1,900 to almost $2,500 in January! 

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 27, 2020

THIS ONE THING Will Tell Us When the Bubble Economy Is Bursting… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael's a well-known money manager, market commentator and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years and we always love getting his fantastic insights.

Michael, thanks for the time again today, and welcome back.

Michael Pento: It's always a pleasure to be on with you. Thank you for inviting me back on the program.

Mike Gleason: Well, we're having a hard time seeing a big move higher in metals prices until one of two things happen. We'll start here. The first would be a pickup and safe haven demand. In our view there is too much investor complacency given the circumstances as has been the case for a while now, equity market valuations are sky high. Now we've got an election coming up, and there is at least some chance our next president will be an avowed socialist. This does not seem like the time for investors to be all in on risk trades, but we suppose the only thing that really matters is the Fed. They are going to do whatever it takes to keep the party in the stock markets going.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 27, 2020

Stock Market, Gold Black Swan Event Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread.  The US Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading.  Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.

If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.

Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels.  Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event.  Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2020

This Will Signal A Massive Gold Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks are often cited as recession proof stocks. Although this has not always been true, they do tend to rise when the economy is in a recessions and/or when the general stock market is in decline or showing relatively little gains.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 27, 2020

US Presidential Cycle Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

During 2019 the Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.

This video is part 5 of a series of 6 that concludes in an overall trend forecast into the end of 2020.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Stock Market Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Limited correction underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Commodities

Sunday, January 26, 2020

The "Twin Threats" Facing Big Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The global oil and gas industry is facing the "twin threats" of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as the climate crisis continues to worsen. The industry is not adequately responding to either of those threats, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

"Oil and gas companies have been proficient at delivering the fuels that form the bedrock of today's energy system; the question that they now face is whether they can help deliver climate solutions," the IEA said.

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Politics

Sunday, January 26, 2020

The Wuhan Wipeout – Could It Happen? / Politics / Pandemic

By: Chris_Vermeulen

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China.  Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China.  As we learn more about this potential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start.  Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family throughout this massive celebration.  We are certain that hundreds or thousands have traveled to all parts of the world by now.  The potential for exponential growth in the threat from this virus could be just days or weeks away.

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Companies

Saturday, January 25, 2020

JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ) Big Pharama AI Mega-trend Investing 2020 / Companies / Healthcare Sector

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The juggernaut that is Artificial Intelligence continues to rumble along towards an inexorable future, one that most still fail to grasp the magnitude of the changes that are just around the corner as humans think in linear terms whilst the AI trend is EXPONENTIAL. Where developments that even the proponents of AI thought would take several years are taking place in mere MONTHS! That is the power of the unfolding AI MEGA-TREND!

AI has already CHANGED THE WORLD! EXPONENTIALLY! You have an AI super computer right in your pocket for likely less than £1000!

Especially, when one marries AI with other big world changing tech mega-trend "Quantum Computing"! Put the 2 together and we are literally going to see an explosion in SUPER INTELLGENCE that would soon far exceed that of human intelligence, following which it won't be that many years before the AI exceeds the intelligence of the sum of ALL humans! For better or worse, that's the path we are on.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Experts See Opportunity in Ratios of Gold to Silver and Platinum / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments and Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable discuss investment strategies centered on precious metals ratios.

Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

Always a pleasure to have you on the program to discuss the value proposition before us in precious metals. Today we will identify three exciting value propositions for your precious metals portfolio that are currently selling at a deep, deep discount.

Mr. Schectman, you have a proven pedigree of success in the precious metals space. I want to discuss a methodology that has made you and the clients of Miles Franklin very handsome returns over the years, and that is your use of ratios. Sir, please explain why it is paramount for precious metals investors to have a thorough understanding on precious metals ratios.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I most often use linear scale charts for stocks, markets and indicators for their more absolute views. But in the case below we conjure up a long-term log scale chart showing the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) and the S&P 500 (SPX), as it works better in providing a percentage-based relationship between an indicator of market liquidity and inflation when declining and lack of liquidity, deflation or… it has to be said, Goldilocks, when rising.

Now, when viewing the most recent Goldilocks phase, where SPX has gone in positive correlation with the GSR we will have to suspend disbelief that this is anything normal or natural. It was created by will of man as first the Bernanke Fed conjured a balls out inflation out of 2008’s deflationary destruction and then as a crowning achievement, concocted Operation Twist in order to manipulate the bond market into flashing this signal… ‘Nope, no inflation here!’

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Germany Starts War on Gold  / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Germans, like Indians and Chinese, love their gold - although their reasons for buying and keeping bullion are somewhat different. 

In China and India, gold jewelry is a status symbol - a sign of wealth and success. In Germany, owning gold bars and coins, maybe a 24-karat necklace or two, is a means of preserving wealth, especially in times of war or economic crisis, something never far from Germans’ minds, considering their history.  

Indeed the “war guilt” Germans experience over the atrocities of Nazi Germany is accompanied by fears that their government could again lose control of fiat money, as the Weimar Republic did in the 1920s, leading to devastating hyper-inflation. 

In India “a marriage is not a marriage without gold.” Indians find it auspicious to be-gift gold jewelry during the Diwali festival, which begins in October, and wedding season. Gold-shopping for the bride is thought to bring good fortune and invoke the blessings of a Hindu goddess. At nearly 20 million weddings a year, Indians’ annual demand for the precious metal exceeds 514 tonnes. Easy to see why the country’s private gold holdings are the largest in the world, a mind-boggling 24,000 tonnes. (almost as much as the world’s top 10 central bank holdings combined)

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Gold Mining Stocks Valuations / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have spent the past half-year mired in a high consolidation.  They haven’t been able to break out, but aren’t breaking down either.  This technical purgatory is working to slowly bleed off overboughtness and rebalance sentiment.  This necessary process to eradicate greed from the last upleg peak is never exciting.  But today’s low gold-miner valuations reveal great upside potential in their next upleg.

The world’s leading and dominant gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund.  It commanded $13.2b in net assets in the middle of this week, 2.7x larger than its next-biggest competitor GDXJ.  The major gold miners’ stocks included in GDX soared this past summer, blasting higher after gold’s decisive breakout to its bull market’s first new highs in several years.

GDX’s strong 29.0% surge over the next 2.5 months into early September capped a larger 76.2% upleg over 11.8 months.  Naturally last summer’s sharp rally generated much excitement and greed in this small contrarian sector.  So the gold stocks needed to correct or consolidate, either selling off deeply enough or drifting sideways long enough to restore sentiment balance.  Excessive greed is inherently unsustainable.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Three Upside and One Downside Risk for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Our base scenario for 2020 is that it might be a worse year for gold than 2019 was. However, there are three major upside (and one downside) risks for the gold market, which could materialize in 2020. Today’s article will introduce you to these potential catalysts that could send gold prices higher (or significantly lower) in 2020.

We stated earlier that unless something bad happens, 2020 may be worse for the yellow metal than 2019, as gold fundamentals seem to have deteriorated since the last year. Of course, bad things are happening all the time, but do not result in any possible negative developments. Rather, we have in mind three downside risks to our macroeconomic outlook, or three upside risks for gold. What are they?

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2020

A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Apparently, there is no limit. This seems especially true right now with all of the “obvious” signs and indicators staring you in the face. It is almost blasphemous to speak cautiously. Better to let your imagination run wild and join in the revelry.

I can’t do that. I don’t choose to be dumped into the same cauldron of boiling fantasy with other analysts and advisors, who tout and promote based on the latest headlines. There has to be more to it. I think there is.

Some of this has to do with marketing. “Let’s make hay while the sun shines!” I get that. But I don’t like being in a large crowd when emotions grow unchecked and fundamentals are ignored.

If you are interested in attending a pep rally for much higher gold prices, move on. You won’t find it here.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 24, 2020

Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team caught a very interesting price pattern that correlates with the Put/Call ratio.  We are alerting our friends and followers with this research post of this exciting, yet unconfirmed, set up today.

In late 2017, the US stock market rallied from July through December with moderately low volatility throughout this span of time.  Near the end of 2017, the US stock market price activity stalled, then began a renewed price rally in early 2018 (see the first BLUE & YELLOW BOX on the chart below). Then, in January 2018, a very broad market reversion event took place which ultimately resulted in a very broad market correction in October through December 2018 of just over 20%.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2020

Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Two cities are besieged. One by officials, activists and business leaders, while the second by bloodthirsty politicians. Will anyone escape? No one knows, but the gold coin has always helped bribe the guards to look the other way…

Just take a look at how it held value recently:

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